Project Management

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Rules of thumb for high level schedule estimates

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Robert Ward Principal| CSM Business and Mobility Rydalmere, Australia
What are some rules of thumb that you use to do a rough schedule estimate (guess) for an initial project evaluation? An example might be for every week estimated to work out requirements then allow 2 weeks for development and 1 week for user acceptance.
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Dominic Law Product Manager| PCCW Global Happy Valley, Hong Kong
Most people make a rule-of-thumb schedule based on experience from previous similar project and make adjustment if this project is more complicated or not. If the Project Manager does not have the experience it is worth asking someone else with the experience.
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Robert Ward Principal| CSM Business and Mobility Rydalmere, Australia
Thanks Dominic, I agree that this is a good approach.

However sometimes there is an idea that is sufficiently outside of past experience or rare enough that it's not possible to take a previous project and plus/minus a complexity factor, so I am interested in additional approaches to guide the guess without requiring significant analysis.

But complexity is a relevant factor.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
No matter the rule of thumb you will use you have to take into account some method to calculate deviation and to define how you will publish your estimations. My recommendation is see Barry Bohem´s "Cone of Uncertainty". While is a tool created for IT and software project it could be used into any type of projects.
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Robert Ward Principal| CSM Business and Mobility Rydalmere, Australia
Thanks Sergio.

The pictorial representation of the cone is particularly helpful, although not always will accepted by project sponsors! :-)

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