Are the estimates accurate

I would say, Rami, that you will get a 100% estimate when the work is completed. :)

In fact this is a true statement but by then its too late - Lessons Learned :D

This post is mine.
Now I have seen why it is posted as anonymous. When I was writing I was logged, but when I have clicked on Post Reply and the page refreshed I resulted logged out. Is there some of the community manager that know why? Am I wrong something? Thanks in advance.

Paolo,

When you post a comment, look under your picture, there is a box and beside it written "Post Anonumously". Make sure this is not checked as I believe this is the issue. If you are logged out, you can't comment at all as far as I am aware so I doubt this could be the problem.

Adrian,

I somehow disagree with part of what you've metioned, if I may of course. Estimation is not just guessing (Padding is Guessing). Estimation is based on structured analysis, assumptions, and facts.

On the other hand, I find the practice of reporting longer time than estimated and not informing or sharing this with others as contradicting to Project Management Standards unless you have a solid reason.

The first time that happened I believed that it was the issue (post anonymously checked), but the second time I was sure that the flag was unchecked. And the third time (this one) I was sure too, because when I click on Post Reply I could saw my photo on the left (when you checked Post anonymously the photo disappear and appear a ?). Moreover I said that I was logged when I was writing the post (as you said is not possible to comment if you are not logged in), but when I have clicked on Post Reply and the page refreshed I resulted logged out (I didn't see "Hello Paolo" on the top-right of the page).

Anyway thanks for your reply.

I think the word guess was a little bit unfortunate as indeed when you are producing an estimation you do apply some logic and you are not making the numbers out of thin air.

However, in my projects at least, the degree of uncertainty is pretty large so you can never be sure that your estimations were correct before the work is completed.

In my projects estimations are based on the effort estimates done by the subject matter experts who analyze the requirements define the technical tasks required to complete the work and then estimate the effort for each task.

When I am asked to estimate the effort I try to imagine how will it be working on the requirement and what does it take to complete it. So I make a sort of plan of the low level tasks required and then from experience I am able to compute the numbers for the completion of each low level task. Working experience is crucial in effort estimation and lack of experience will make your estimations to be real guesses.

If the requirements are not dependent on each other then the project manager will have an easier life as he will be able to divide the number of man hours to the team members that will complete the requirements. However when there are strong dependencies between tasks and worse sub-functional teams inside the project team then the project manager needs to work hard to estimate the whole project or phases of it.

In addition the project managers have to take into account other variables in the process a part from the actual work effort for instance in a software development process many tests may fail which will require rework and usually developers can't estimate this so the project manager needs to find other mechanism for estimation.