I'm both new to PM and to Agile. I work with a very competent and self motivated team of developers and I think one of the challenges we have is sometimes in estimating. By very virtue of it's name I recognise that an estimate is just that.
This isn't a common theme but any views on improving estimating for agile (story points) other than those outlined in the Agile manifesto. Ideally it would be great to recognise/reward developers for accuracy of estimation. Saving Changes...
Keshava ChandraiahIT Project Manager| American ExpressAlpharetta, Ga, United States
I have experienced the scenario of one making the #2 estimation and other making #20 which is way to large. So to converge them it's real struggle like analyse difference, take one more estimate and deciding on addition story point is really needed then take #20. So do all this Mastering the Scrum is absolute necassary Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
Estimation is not tied to the method you use to create things. Key is to understand what estimation is: the best guess based on available information and time to estimate. Estimations always have an implicit degree of "error" because the available information. Take a closer look to Barry Bohem´s work mainly the "Cone of Uncertainty" to understand that. If you try to get accurancy you are lost. You will see it in the Cone of Uncertainty. I can write a lot here but other good source of information is Mike Cohn "Agile Estimating and Planning" book. Saving Changes...
It can be challenging to get the team to NOT equate story points with hours, but you need story points for velocity and burn-down charts. If you have the team perform relative estimating with t-shirt sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL), you can convert them into points (modified fibonacci - 1,2,3,5,8) to use for velocity and burn-down.
You can use more than 5 sizes, but 5 keeps it simple. I know SMs that like larger numbers (55, 89...) but I think anything that big is out in the epic or theme area and needs to be broken down into smaller pieces before it can be worked on effectively. It's usually okay if something that big spans multiple sprints; you can use story mapping to plan it. Saving Changes...
If the team is getting good at slicing work items into roughly similar sized bits then put story points aside and just count the number of work items delivered in a fixed amount of time.
Kiron Saving Changes...
Wade HarshmanScrum Master| GDITIndianapolis, In, United States
The manifesto doesn't really say anything about estimating. You're free to estimate any way that works for your team, the Agile police won't come after you.
If you want to use story points, I would just recommend a few tips trainers don't always emphasize when they rush through the concept of story points.
1. Focus on relative sizing over fixed story points. If your story points have a fixed duration, you might as well go back to estimating hours.
2. Along those lines, story points should be relatively quick. If it takes your team too long to agree on points, they might as well estimate hours.
3. Story points and velocity are for the team and the team only. They help the PO prioritize, helps the team think through the work, creates a point of conversation when points aren't aligned, and helps the team plan work at a sustainable pace. Defend this. The moment management reviews your story points, the points will become meaningless, because your team will have to start gaming the system (remember that points are relative).
Measure your progress by quality software that been delivered and the number of happy customers, not by story points.
Also, consider what Kiron said (you should always consider what Kiron says). If your backlog items are roughly the same size (whatever that acceptable deviation is), then points don't serve a significant purpose. You'll soon understand how many work items your team can deliver over time, and you can measure your throughput instead of your velocity.
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2 replies by Adrian Carlogea and Kiron Bondale
Jan 10, 2020 4:02 PM
Kiron Bondale
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Thanks Wade!
It is amazing how much "waste" goes away when we don't worry about sizing anymore!
Kiron
Jan 18, 2020 8:24 AM
Adrian Carlogea
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"3. Story points and velocity are for the team and the team only. They help the PO prioritize, helps the team think through the work, creates a point of conversation when points aren't aligned, and helps the team plan work at a sustainable pace. Defend this. The moment management reviews your story points, the points will become meaningless, because your team will have to start gaming the system (remember that points are relative). "
If you are a project sponsor or project director you must decide how much money to allocate to the project or to one of its phases. Obviously there is no accurate way of estimating the needed budget but still you must base your decision on some estimates no matter how accurate they are.
If the story points are only for the team and management should not be allowed to use them then how can the sponsor/director estimate the needed budget???
It is virtually impossible to stop management from using the story points. If you don't provide them the points, so that they can convert to days, then you must find an alternative way of estimating the time needed to complete the project (or one of its phases) so you can provide this information to them.
Some years ago I worked as a developer on a project that was using Scrum. The User Stories were all written from the beginning so the velocity was known from the beginning. If we were dropping bellow the set velocity we were considered a low performing team. That was a nightmare and I am sure many developers have such horrible experiences with working "Agile".
You can't stop management from using the Scrum estimates and metrics as they need them but when they do use them it can end up a nightmare for the workers especially for those that are doing the actual work.
The manifesto doesn't really say anything about estimating. You're free to estimate any way that works for your team, the Agile police won't come after you.
If you want to use story points, I would just recommend a few tips trainers don't always emphasize when they rush through the concept of story points.
1. Focus on relative sizing over fixed story points. If your story points have a fixed duration, you might as well go back to estimating hours.
2. Along those lines, story points should be relatively quick. If it takes your team too long to agree on points, they might as well estimate hours.
3. Story points and velocity are for the team and the team only. They help the PO prioritize, helps the team think through the work, creates a point of conversation when points aren't aligned, and helps the team plan work at a sustainable pace. Defend this. The moment management reviews your story points, the points will become meaningless, because your team will have to start gaming the system (remember that points are relative).
Measure your progress by quality software that been delivered and the number of happy customers, not by story points.
Also, consider what Kiron said (you should always consider what Kiron says). If your backlog items are roughly the same size (whatever that acceptable deviation is), then points don't serve a significant purpose. You'll soon understand how many work items your team can deliver over time, and you can measure your throughput instead of your velocity.
Thanks Wade!
It is amazing how much "waste" goes away when we don't worry about sizing anymore!
Kiron Saving Changes...
Eric IsomOwner| learn.pmguaranteed.comUt, United States
I wouldn't try to motivate or reward people for accurate estimates. You need to focus on building a team of self-motivated people, not on trying to motivate people.
Self-motivated people will want to improve their estimates without you having to reward them for it. It's just in their nature. And they'll also see the benefits of working on projects that have been accurately estimated.
If you put rewards in place for accurate estimates, it will motivate those who are not self-motivated to game the system, creating all sorts of undesirable behavior and results. Things might look better on paper for a while with a team like this, but it creates problems that show up later. Saving Changes...
The manifesto doesn't really say anything about estimating. You're free to estimate any way that works for your team, the Agile police won't come after you.
If you want to use story points, I would just recommend a few tips trainers don't always emphasize when they rush through the concept of story points.
1. Focus on relative sizing over fixed story points. If your story points have a fixed duration, you might as well go back to estimating hours.
2. Along those lines, story points should be relatively quick. If it takes your team too long to agree on points, they might as well estimate hours.
3. Story points and velocity are for the team and the team only. They help the PO prioritize, helps the team think through the work, creates a point of conversation when points aren't aligned, and helps the team plan work at a sustainable pace. Defend this. The moment management reviews your story points, the points will become meaningless, because your team will have to start gaming the system (remember that points are relative).
Measure your progress by quality software that been delivered and the number of happy customers, not by story points.
Also, consider what Kiron said (you should always consider what Kiron says). If your backlog items are roughly the same size (whatever that acceptable deviation is), then points don't serve a significant purpose. You'll soon understand how many work items your team can deliver over time, and you can measure your throughput instead of your velocity.
"3. Story points and velocity are for the team and the team only. They help the PO prioritize, helps the team think through the work, creates a point of conversation when points aren't aligned, and helps the team plan work at a sustainable pace. Defend this. The moment management reviews your story points, the points will become meaningless, because your team will have to start gaming the system (remember that points are relative). "
If you are a project sponsor or project director you must decide how much money to allocate to the project or to one of its phases. Obviously there is no accurate way of estimating the needed budget but still you must base your decision on some estimates no matter how accurate they are.
If the story points are only for the team and management should not be allowed to use them then how can the sponsor/director estimate the needed budget???
It is virtually impossible to stop management from using the story points. If you don't provide them the points, so that they can convert to days, then you must find an alternative way of estimating the time needed to complete the project (or one of its phases) so you can provide this information to them.
Some years ago I worked as a developer on a project that was using Scrum. The User Stories were all written from the beginning so the velocity was known from the beginning. If we were dropping bellow the set velocity we were considered a low performing team. That was a nightmare and I am sure many developers have such horrible experiences with working "Agile".
You can't stop management from using the Scrum estimates and metrics as they need them but when they do use them it can end up a nightmare for the workers especially for those that are doing the actual work.
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1 reply by Wade Harshman
Jan 22, 2020 10:35 AM
Wade Harshman
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If your management was monitoring team story points and the team lived in fear of lagging velocity, then your team was not working in a safe environment and I would bet money that the organization was not agile. You can't micromanage your teams and claim any high degree of agility. You don't get empowered teams, you get minions.
What you've described is common, though, and that's why I guard my teams' velocity closely. It's an internal metric for them to aid in planning and calculate estimates. As soon as managers turn it into a performance metric, it becomes meaningless. The team living in fear has only to inflate their story points to increase their velocity. Now your team has delayed the executioner, but your product owner cannot effectively estimate delivery. Management isn't assisting the product team in this scenario, they're destroying it.
Rather than share my team's velocity, the PO should use some of the common tools (like burn charts, for example) to set expectations. Yes, a competent stakeholder or customer can easily deduce average velocity from a burn chart, but that's a much different scenario than having an authoritarian manager beating down a team based on some nonsense iteration performance metric. An organization that insists on such a thing either doesn't understand the iterative and complex nature of the work they've undertaken, or else they're using buzzword terms like "agile" and "story" to disguise the authoritarian work culture they've established.
Saving Changes...
Andrew SoswaTechnology leader| Leading global financial institutionElk Grove Village, Il, United States
If you translate story points to hours - obviously this is not Agile Scrum, you're falling into Scrumfall. I'll explain...
Estimating by story points makes sense for sustainable teams (when there is turn over, there is high range of estimation of same user story).
Teams estimate by effort because it is team activity where FIRST they refine the user story and SECOND they immediately story point it. Somehow everyone missed the first step.
If teams translate story point to hour, i.e. User Story 1 has esitmate of 10 hrs., then whose time estimate is it? Certainly not Bob's who can do US in 5 hrs, of Frank who can do it in 15 hrs. So wrong.
It is relative because it is not objective.
Someone missed the step how story points fit in calculating velocity and long term-planning, but I started another post on that "Strategic Long-Term Estimation in Agile Scrum"
@Kiran - slicing user stories into same chunks? I tried, still team members where coming up with diff estimates. It simply does not work in complex requirements estimation. It might work in row-homes construction.
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2 replies by Adrian Carlogea and Kiron Bondale
Jan 21, 2020 5:10 PM
Adrian Carlogea
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Thank you for your explanation Andrew. However Management would always want time estimation so you must figure out a way to provide such estimates.
If you don't convert points to time then you must use the velocity to determine how much time would it take to complete the project or part of it. Then if the velocity drops management would get excited.
In waterfall projects there is not much stress to keep the velocity up as velocity does not exist. Some say than by using Agile/Scrum you can't hide and must be transparent but in reality is just more pressure and additional stress on the working team members. For the PO and especially for the SM is not that much stress as they are not the ones having to deliver the work.
Jan 21, 2020 5:40 PM
Kiron Bondale
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Andrew -
you miss my point with regards to mature teams not needing to size any more. If all stories are small enough, then why size anymore? The focus can then be on how many stories (all of roughly the same size/smallness) we can complete within a fixed amount of time.
Kiron
Saving Changes...
Kamal SyedPrincipal Consultant| FableSoftOntario, Canada
Adrian made a good point above. As a PM or being in Management, I can't agree completely that software development cannot be estimated - that leads to planning chaos and we could never meet budgets or schedules with that approach, but I do agree that quality metrics are essential when assessing estimation and performance. There is no point producing software fast if it doesn't work properly and consistantly.
Sometimes though it needs to be produced quickly and less efficiently to get to market, but we should plan on continuous optimization to improve efficiency, including removing dead code. Saving Changes...
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