Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
Hello All,
Hope everything is going well, and happy new year for all of you.
I have 2 questions:
1st one is regarding risk management:
can i proceed to quantitative risk analysis without passing through qualitative analysis ? i mean to go deeply into risk calculations, without using risk matrix to rank risks,etc....
2nd question, if i'm doing three point estimate using excel sheet, if i sum up all activities duration it'll give me a very long project, because it consider it series activities, how can i do the three point estimate using excel sheet and taking into consideration all relations between activities ?
then i'll take this output (three point estimate) to perform Monte Carlo analysis, what's the best way to do this ?
Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
and , is it doable to do the three point estimate using Microsoft project ? as it'll consider relations between activities automatically. if yes, how to do so ? Saving Changes...
First
How do you do quantitative risk analysis, without so qualitative analysis ?
The qualitative analysis would be for each risk to do an evaluation of it's probability and cost at a high level. From that you would decide on action to reduce risk, then you should do an evaluation of residual risk. From there you can do quantitative analysis with 3 points estimate for probability and cost or schedule.
The second question
Seem what your doing is limited to a schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo, Palisade @Risk use to have a macro that would do the Monte Carlo on MS project files, not sure if still available. Many other tools exist depending on your budget that would do monte Carlo on schedule and take into account relationship with other activities.
You need to do a qualitative risk analysis first, see if they impact the schedule then add detail to the schedule for the three points estimate ....
and a few articles and templates if you search this site Saving Changes...
Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
Actually i can do quantitative risk analysis without qualitative, if i have a few risks, i'll calculate the probability and impact for them all. and i do that for all risks i have. after that i prepare response plan based on risk score (Impact X Probability)
and regarding Monte Carlo and three point estimates, i'm searching for that on MS project but couldn't find any. Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
My answers: 1-Yes. you can do it. 2-you need an schedule to proceed with risk analysis so you need activities relations defined.
...
1 reply by Ahmed Sanad
Jan 09, 2017 4:13 PM
Ahmed Sanad
...
great
so if i have schedule, how can i do that on MS project ?
Saving Changes...
Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
Jan 09, 2017 4:01 PM
Replying to Sergio Luis Conte
...
My answers: 1-Yes. you can do it. 2-you need an schedule to proceed with risk analysis so you need activities relations defined.
great
so if i have schedule, how can i do that on MS project ? Saving Changes...
Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
Dear All,
Can anyone help me to apply PERT on MS project ? is there a Macro or tool to do that on MS Project directly ? to keep relations between activities ? Saving Changes...
Dear All.
1. yes, you can go straight to quantitative analysis but it had no sense. You first have to focus on qualitative analysis and then move to the quantitative. In some cases, qualitative analysis that are less time consuming are enough to evaluate the risks of your project.
2. when you have the 3 point estimate, you can move towards a Monte Carlo simulation. You should also decide the type of probability curve you will apply. Most people use a Pert curve or you might use also a triangular curve.
There are specific tools, that are application (the one I use is from Palisade) that are add-on to Excel and work also with MS project. In this way you will be able to estimate the impact of risks directly on your schedule and you can keep the relationships between activities.
...
1 reply by Ahmed Sanad
Jan 12, 2017 9:50 AM
Ahmed Sanad
...
Many thanks Francesca for your reply.
Can you kindly send me ay template that you have for PERT ? or the add-on that I can implement in MS Project ? as it'll be more effective if I use it with MS Projects.
Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
The main focus of the qualitative risk assessment is to allow you to prioritize your risks. Quantitative risk assessment is typically more expensive and you will likely want to do it on your high-priority risks only.
If you feel you can skip qualititative because you have few risks, you might want to ask yourself if you have identified all of the risks relevant to your project. Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
As for PERT in MS Project, I suggest you Google with your specific Project version. There are a variety of tools, add-ins, and procedures that work with specific versions of the software. For example, Project 2007 has a PERT analysis add-in that is not available in later versions.
...
1 reply by Ahmed Sanad
Jan 12, 2017 9:51 AM
Ahmed Sanad
...
I have MS Project 2010, I couldn't find a tool to implement with MS Project.
Saving Changes...
Ahmed SanadProject Director| Siemens EnergyDubai, United Arab Emirates
Jan 12, 2017 9:16 AM
Replying to Francesca Schiezzari
...
Dear All.
1. yes, you can go straight to quantitative analysis but it had no sense. You first have to focus on qualitative analysis and then move to the quantitative. In some cases, qualitative analysis that are less time consuming are enough to evaluate the risks of your project.
2. when you have the 3 point estimate, you can move towards a Monte Carlo simulation. You should also decide the type of probability curve you will apply. Most people use a Pert curve or you might use also a triangular curve.
There are specific tools, that are application (the one I use is from Palisade) that are add-on to Excel and work also with MS project. In this way you will be able to estimate the impact of risks directly on your schedule and you can keep the relationships between activities.
Many thanks Francesca for your reply.
Can you kindly send me ay template that you have for PERT ? or the add-on that I can implement in MS Project ? as it'll be more effective if I use it with MS Projects. Saving Changes...
