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Monte Carlo

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MAEN QADDOURAH Project Director| AJ SAUDI Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
What is the best and easy program to conduct Monte Carlo technique?
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Mansoor Mustafa Senior PM| Government Department Rawalpindi Punjab, Pakistan
I think it depends upon what your doing, if your doing impact analysis then sensitivity analysis, and if your quantifying chance of completion in term of time and budget then Monte Carlo software will give you the idea that in 500(any number of time) time of computer computation the chance are how much
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Stéphane Parent Self Employed / Semi-retired| Leader Maker Prince Edward Island, Canada
I'll have to give @Risk a try.
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Aleksei Nikitin Lead expert| Higher School of Economics Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation
Dear colleagues, could you help me please with my concern about using Monte Carlo for schedule analysis.
Many schedules have multiple parallel tasks. Some cases (iterations of a simulation) will lead to new critical paths. And it means that for each iteration we should redefine the critical path.
Unfortunately I cannot find it in @Risk documentation: does it consider the sequence links between tasks? Does it recalculate the new critical path for each iteration?
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2 replies by Kiron Bondale and Vladimir Liberzon
Jun 29, 2021 4:57 PM
Kiron Bondale
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Aleksei -

Yes, @Risk is able to determine if the original CP has changed based on a near critical path taking longer in one of its runs. In fact, I have a video from a vastly outdated version of the tool (back when it was just a plug-in for MSP) which shows that exact scenario where a near critical path ends up becoming the critical path in more than 85% of the simulated runs.

Kiron
Jun 30, 2021 5:25 PM
Vladimir Liberzon
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Alexei, risk simulation tools calculate activity criticality indexes that show in what percent of MC schedule iterations they become critical.
It helps to determine those activities that require maximal attention.
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Peter Rapin Subject Matter Expect; Project Delivery| Independent Consultant Ontario, Canada
I have used RiskAMP, a full-featured Monte Carlo simulation engine for Microsoft Excel®. May be an alternate to @Risk.

https://riskamp.com/
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Jun 27, 2021 9:39 AM
Replying to Aleksei Nikitin
...
Dear colleagues, could you help me please with my concern about using Monte Carlo for schedule analysis.
Many schedules have multiple parallel tasks. Some cases (iterations of a simulation) will lead to new critical paths. And it means that for each iteration we should redefine the critical path.
Unfortunately I cannot find it in @Risk documentation: does it consider the sequence links between tasks? Does it recalculate the new critical path for each iteration?
Aleksei -

Yes, @Risk is able to determine if the original CP has changed based on a near critical path taking longer in one of its runs. In fact, I have a video from a vastly outdated version of the tool (back when it was just a plug-in for MSP) which shows that exact scenario where a near critical path ends up becoming the critical path in more than 85% of the simulated runs.

Kiron
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Vladimir Liberzon R&D Director| Spider Project Team Moscow, Russian Federation
Be careful, these Monte Carlo simulation tools can become misleading if your projects have resource constraints. Any external MC software can calculate wrong probability distributions because they do not use the same leveling heuristics as your scheduling tool.
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Vladimir Liberzon R&D Director| Spider Project Team Moscow, Russian Federation
Jun 27, 2021 9:39 AM
Replying to Aleksei Nikitin
...
Dear colleagues, could you help me please with my concern about using Monte Carlo for schedule analysis.
Many schedules have multiple parallel tasks. Some cases (iterations of a simulation) will lead to new critical paths. And it means that for each iteration we should redefine the critical path.
Unfortunately I cannot find it in @Risk documentation: does it consider the sequence links between tasks? Does it recalculate the new critical path for each iteration?
Alexei, risk simulation tools calculate activity criticality indexes that show in what percent of MC schedule iterations they become critical.
It helps to determine those activities that require maximal attention.
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