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Quantitave Risk Analysis / Modelling Techniques

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Aejaz Shaikh PM I| Alyx Technologies India Pvt Ltd Pune, Maharshatra, India
How do I better understand the use of "Sensitivity analysis". Any live example to illustrate this is welcome.
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Nasrullah Mohammed Portfolio Manager| Advanced Electronics Company Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Aejaz - Sensitivity analysis, also referred to as what-if or simulation analysis, is a way to predict the outcome of a decision given a certain range of variables. By creating a given set of variables, the analyst can determine how changes in one variable impact the outcome.

Sensitivity Analysis Example:

Assume Sue, a sales manager, wants to understand the impact of customer traffic on total sales. She determines that sales are a function of price and transaction volume. The price of a widget is $1,000 and Sue sold 100 last year for total sales of $100,000. Sue also determines that a 10% increase in customer traffic increases transaction volume by 5%, which allows her to build a financial model and sensitivity analysis around this equation based on what-if statements. It can tell her what happens to sales if customer traffic increases by 10%, 50% or 100%. Based on 100 transactions today, a 10%, 50% or 100% increase in customer traffic equates to an increase in transactions by 5, 25 or 50. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that sales are highly sensitive to changes in customer traffic. Cheers!
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1 reply by Aejaz Shaikh
Apr 05, 2017 5:37 AM
Aejaz Shaikh
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Thanks for clarifying my doubt.
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Deepesh Rammoorthy ICT Project Manager ( PMP®AgilePM®Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM®))| Australian Red Cross Blood Service Tarneit, Vic, Australia
Thanks Nasrullah.
Good explanation
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1 reply by Nasrullah Mohammed
Apr 05, 2017 12:40 PM
Nasrullah Mohammed
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You are most welcome Deepesh.
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Fazal Hussain Aasar Community Manager| TaskQue Pakistan
Expected Monetary value analysis and Probability distributions are best methods for analyzing any risk. EMV is my favorite as it is easy and fast risk analysis technique.
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Aejaz Shaikh PM I| Alyx Technologies India Pvt Ltd Pune, Maharshatra, India
Apr 05, 2017 2:05 AM
Replying to Nasrullah Mohammed
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Aejaz - Sensitivity analysis, also referred to as what-if or simulation analysis, is a way to predict the outcome of a decision given a certain range of variables. By creating a given set of variables, the analyst can determine how changes in one variable impact the outcome.

Sensitivity Analysis Example:

Assume Sue, a sales manager, wants to understand the impact of customer traffic on total sales. She determines that sales are a function of price and transaction volume. The price of a widget is $1,000 and Sue sold 100 last year for total sales of $100,000. Sue also determines that a 10% increase in customer traffic increases transaction volume by 5%, which allows her to build a financial model and sensitivity analysis around this equation based on what-if statements. It can tell her what happens to sales if customer traffic increases by 10%, 50% or 100%. Based on 100 transactions today, a 10%, 50% or 100% increase in customer traffic equates to an increase in transactions by 5, 25 or 50. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that sales are highly sensitive to changes in customer traffic. Cheers!
Thanks for clarifying my doubt.
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Nasrullah Mohammed Portfolio Manager| Advanced Electronics Company Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Apr 05, 2017 2:56 AM
Replying to Deepesh Rammoorthy
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Thanks Nasrullah.
Good explanation
You are most welcome Deepesh.
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Vincent Guerard Coach - Trainer - Speaker - Advisor| Freelance Mont-Royal, Quebec, Canada
Nasrullah explanation is clear.

How a small variation to one variable will impact the result.

Look also at the correlation between your variable.

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