Aejaz ShaikhPM I| Alyx Technologies India Pvt LtdPune, Maharshatra, India
When and in what scenario Monte Carlo Analysis is performed? Saving Changes...
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Deepesh RammoorthyICT Project Manager ( PMP®AgilePM®Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM®))| Australian Red Cross Blood ServiceTarneit, Vic, Australia
THe only way i could understand it is that it's similar to load or performance testing of software applications
if you have engaged performance testing agency to generate spurious loads to see how stress a system can handle and get the graph its all Monte Carlo analysis Saving Changes...
Diego CanasProject Coordinator | Civil Engineer | Planning Engineer| -Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
Monte Carlo analysis is only applied when it is necessary to involve a numerical analysis of probability and impact. That is, they are applied to the risks classified as high risk, or prioritized in the qualitative analysis, and therefore are transferred to the quantitative analysis.
The little that I know ... is an iteration model that uses cost estimates, as well as the network diagram with the pessimistic, optimistic, and most likely (three point estimating) possibilities and creates different scenarios simulating costs and schedule. Saving Changes...
Monte Carlo Analysis will give you a set of result from a simulation, using a three point evaluation.
For each entry you will put three value (probable, optimistic, pessimistic). The simulation will recalculate a number of time with variation for each entry with your three point. A high number of simulation is suggested.
The result would give you number of occurence for each result. Put together it will give you a S-Curve from the smallest result to the highest. The curve start at 0%. (Before the lowest result) and end at 100% (the highest result.
The result will help you choose the result you want to announce. If you take the result at 50%, you have 50/50 chance to be under/over the announce number. If you take the result that correspond to 80%, 80% of the time you will be at that number or under, so just 20% chance to be over that number.
Hope it answer your question. Saving Changes...
Aejaz ShaikhPM I| Alyx Technologies India Pvt LtdPune, Maharshatra, India
Thanks to all for putting in the explanation Saving Changes...
