Rarely, is there a single incident, risk, issue, or deliverable that will impact the end date of a large project. However, it's more of a compound math problem.
For example:
If event A happens, there's a 20% chance the date will be impacted
If event B happens, there's a 20% chance the date will be impacted
If event C happens, there's a 30% chance the date would be impacted
If event D happens, there's a 25% chance the date would be impacted
If event E happens, there's a 33% chance the date would be impacted
If event F happens, there's a 25% chance the date would be impacted
There's not a single item that is insurmountable and can't be "made up". However, if you compound A-F all happening, the probability of moving the date becomes about a 85% chance that the date will move and there's nothing that can be done about it.
Utilizing a traditional risk management methody; with the compounded risk being at 85% one would plan for the risk to occur. But given the weight of each item in the string a wait and see strategy along with mitigation might be more appropriate.
Assuming, like on most projects, events A-F come in sporadically over the course of a couple days, couple weeks, or even a couple months. How should you individually escalate/communicate each discrete item.
The reality of the situation is that when these things are compounded, there really is no recovery.
Any insight on how you have dealt with these scenerios in the past would be greatly appreciated. Saving Changes...
Mark Price PerryBusiness Driven PMO Evangelist| BOT InternationalOrlando, Fl, United States
James, exellent post and point, especially as often times high risk projects have potential for high return. Some even advocate that every project portfolio should have a managed position for "high risk/high return" projects rather than avoid them. One approach is to scorecard your risk events as part of your risk management plan to arrive at a weighted average risk position for the project schedule and budget. I suspect that you already do this. The higher the weighted average, the more attention needs to be placed on risk management, including possible contingencies and float. Per your example below, each of the six risk events have a probability of occuring and they no doubt each have an impact analysis and assessment along with a mititgation strategy. The reality isn't that there is no recovery, rather that the project plan must take into consideration the magnitude of the risk events and the ability of the project manager and project team to mitigate them. For example, rather than "wait and see", what can be done to reduce the probability of risk event A from 20% to something lower? And in the event the risk event occurs, what can be done to mitigate the risk with minimal impact to the project schedule, budget, and quality? When possible, it can also be very helpful to schedule risk out of the project by ensuring that key risk events are distanced from each other. This doesn't necessarily change the likelihood that the risk events will happen, but it can facilitate mitigation and help to minmize the impact to the project. Also, another challenge or easement can be the mindset of management. High risk projects are more likely to encounter difficulties and fail than are low risk projects. This doesn't necessarily make them bad projects or bad investments. Arguably, while it is good to be risk adverse, it is not helpful to expect high risk projects to perform as "risk-free" as minimum risk projects. You raised an excellent point and I hope to hear from others. Cheers. -- Mark Perry, VP of Customer Care, BOT International Saving Changes...
