Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
In my case I use earned value management (EVM) to predict the delays. I think we need to be proactive in predicting not to cure, but it is my personal opinion based on my personal experience. So, we have a method implemented to anticipate the delays where we use a mix between EVM, risk management and burn-down charts which is something using in Agile environments. I was the creator of the method. Saving Changes...
Agree with Sergio. Additional comment: Let the team do iterative estimations to get better with experience and to better understand the teams velocity in order to better understand/ calculate project delays or needs for re-priorization. Saving Changes...
STEFANO PITTALUGASenior Project Control Manager| CMC EuropeGenova, Liguria, Italy
thanks , i understand and totally agree on being proactive , but we are not the owner of these projects and what of asked was to freeze a situation to be able to assign responsabilities and apply penalties. so we don't need to predict but make more clear the past . Saving Changes...
Drew CraigSr. Agile & Product Coach| VanguardPhiladelphia, Pa, United States
If you are tracking task with assigned owners, by Work and Duration, noting Actual Start/Finish against the Baseline, you will be able to see the Variances against the assigned resources. Also by tracking the Burndown, plotting baseline and actual, will show both past and future. Saving Changes...
Stefano, the reasons/ root-causes for project delays can be very different. Yes, you should do variance analysis to get a first picture. But, as I read in your comment the word "penality", I recommend to do talks with the relevant stakeholders in order to get a better 360 degree view on the possible "real" root-causes for the project delay. Saving Changes...
STEFANO PITTALUGASenior Project Control Manager| CMC EuropeGenova, Liguria, Italy
i know very well the importance of a clear explanation of the root-cause with all relevant stakeholders but i probabily miss to the you all in our case there are very few information about resources used on the projects and the only information we will have available will be baseline and actuals so it is an analysis of delay restricted to planning aspect not including others perspectives and i was asking myself what could be the best approach to show results of the analysis , variances that's it ???? Saving Changes...
Ramachandran SwaminathanRegional Delivery Manager| Oracle Consulting IndiaBangalore, Karnataka, India
Stefano - Adding my 2 cents here. You might already be aware of this
If the team is running the project against a baseline estimate, then there are two variables
Total Baseline Effort = Effort Burned to-date + Effort Remaining
The other variable the actual PM of the project has to give to you from time to time is ETC(Effort required for completion) which is based on expert judgement. In an ideal situation, when the project is running on schedule Effort Remaining = ETC
If ETC is greater than Effort Remaining, then the project is running behind schedule. If you need to put it back on track you need to escalate the cost by putting more resources or let it run behind schedule. If you want to depict this to management, then a decision tree would be suitable based on what options are available. You need to get the ETC update from the PM on a regular basis to see whether the project is on schedule and take actions on it as appropriate
Stefano, if you are looking at historical information, variances between planned and actual are probably your best starting point. You might also need to consider if the delays are material. If a task was delayed, but was not on the critical path and did not impact the overall schedule or budget, is this something you need to spend time or effort on?
You might look into forensic schedule delay analysis. I'm not in construction, so I can't tell you a lot about it, but you might find the concepts useful in your situation. Here is a link:
Aaron thanks a lot for your interesting link and consideration , it seems to be very helpful for my purpose , really appreciated
Saving Changes...
STEFANO PITTALUGASenior Project Control Manager| CMC EuropeGenova, Liguria, Italy
Sep 05, 2017 11:31 AM
Replying to Aaron Porter
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Stefano, if you are looking at historical information, variances between planned and actual are probably your best starting point. You might also need to consider if the delays are material. If a task was delayed, but was not on the critical path and did not impact the overall schedule or budget, is this something you need to spend time or effort on?
You might look into forensic schedule delay analysis. I'm not in construction, so I can't tell you a lot about it, but you might find the concepts useful in your situation. Here is a link:
Aaron thanks a lot for your interesting link and consideration , it seems to be very helpful for my purpose , really appreciated Saving Changes...
STEFANO PITTALUGASenior Project Control Manager| CMC EuropeGenova, Liguria, Italy
Sep 05, 2017 8:55 AM
Replying to Ramachandran Swaminathan
...
Stefano - Adding my 2 cents here. You might already be aware of this
If the team is running the project against a baseline estimate, then there are two variables
Total Baseline Effort = Effort Burned to-date + Effort Remaining
The other variable the actual PM of the project has to give to you from time to time is ETC(Effort required for completion) which is based on expert judgement. In an ideal situation, when the project is running on schedule Effort Remaining = ETC
If ETC is greater than Effort Remaining, then the project is running behind schedule. If you need to put it back on track you need to escalate the cost by putting more resources or let it run behind schedule. If you want to depict this to management, then a decision tree would be suitable based on what options are available. You need to get the ETC update from the PM on a regular basis to see whether the project is on schedule and take actions on it as appropriate
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