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Estimating - I have a ton of connections

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Ken Bradshaw Project Manager| CRA Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
This is probably better under a blog but I don't have enough contributions yet... :)

I recently found myself explaining to my wife that I have a ton of connections on this site, which led me to actually trying to estimate how many tons. Being Canadian and on the metric system, I also felt I should calculate the tonnes.

My apologies to anyone who takes offence to overestimates, or weight discussion in general... To be open, I'll disclose my own weight at 205lbs, which is not good considering other health challenges and is a work in progress (downwards).

I guestimated an average weight per connection to be 175 pounds, multiplied by 33,303 connections came to 5,828,025 lbs divided by 2,000 lbs(equals one ton) come to 2,914 tons.

In metric, I had 79.38 kg avg.multiplied by 33,303 connections came to 2,643,592 kgs divided by 1,000 kgs (equals one tonne) come to 2,643 tonnes.

I arrived at 175 pounds / 79.38 kg by "feel". It "felt" like a pretty good average weight. Taking Boehm's Cone of Uncertainty into consideration, there was a lot of uncertainty. I basically knew my specific number of connections at the time, some were men and some were women, all are spread over the world with another "feeling" I had a majority in North American.

I do not know the exact average weight, ratio of men to women, countries of location, or locations of clusters.

I do know, in generalities, men tend to weigh more than women, North American diet tends to lead to higher weight, a reasonable guess at a low weight would be in the range of 90 lbs (no idea of a reasonable high).

Are there other considerations I should have, well, considered? Maybe a different average, based on additional criteria? I suppose I could have gone with a high, medium and low estimate instead.
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Ken -

Interesting Gedanken experiment!

Given the majority of participants are in project management roles, the questions to ask is whether the weight of an "average" project manager is accurately represented by that of an "average" person within a given region.

Another factor which might skew the calculation is age...

Kiron
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1 reply by Ken Bradshaw
Nov 09, 2017 5:13 PM
Ken Bradshaw
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Thanks Kiron! I wasn't sure if age would result in an increase or decrease. I had also considered that most project managers would be in the upper-middle class, which gives them better access to foods, health & fitness care and transportation. I guess all of which could be rolled into lifestyle, characterized as "good" and "bad" then decide if they cancel each other out or skew weight up or down.

P.S. kudos on "Gedanken experiment"! I do it a lot but never "thought" of it in that way! :)
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Ken Bradshaw Project Manager| CRA Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
Nov 09, 2017 4:39 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
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Ken -

Interesting Gedanken experiment!

Given the majority of participants are in project management roles, the questions to ask is whether the weight of an "average" project manager is accurately represented by that of an "average" person within a given region.

Another factor which might skew the calculation is age...

Kiron
Thanks Kiron! I wasn't sure if age would result in an increase or decrease. I had also considered that most project managers would be in the upper-middle class, which gives them better access to foods, health & fitness care and transportation. I guess all of which could be rolled into lifestyle, characterized as "good" and "bad" then decide if they cancel each other out or skew weight up or down.

P.S. kudos on "Gedanken experiment"! I do it a lot but never "thought" of it in that way! :)
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Sante Delle-Vergini, PhD Senior Project Manager| Infosys Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Does carrying around PM books count toward the weight? How about gravity which varies slightly more or less depending on where you are on earth? Sorry to be obtuse ;-) Actually Ken, I sit right on the top and middle of your bell curve. I am precisely 79kg with some change.
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1 reply by Ken Bradshaw
Nov 09, 2017 5:32 PM
Ken Bradshaw
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Well, Sante, I was considering the amount of air travel some PMs might do and the resulting change in weight. Spread over enough population, there may actually lower weight. Unfortunately, I do not have the skill to make that adjustment... Plus re: books - I do have a goodly number, but, in reference to Kiron above, younger PMs would be likely to have e-books on a smartphone or cloud-based.
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Ken Bradshaw Project Manager| CRA Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
Nov 09, 2017 5:21 PM
Replying to Sante Delle-Vergini, PhD
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Does carrying around PM books count toward the weight? How about gravity which varies slightly more or less depending on where you are on earth? Sorry to be obtuse ;-) Actually Ken, I sit right on the top and middle of your bell curve. I am precisely 79kg with some change.
Well, Sante, I was considering the amount of air travel some PMs might do and the resulting change in weight. Spread over enough population, there may actually lower weight. Unfortunately, I do not have the skill to make that adjustment... Plus re: books - I do have a goodly number, but, in reference to Kiron above, younger PMs would be likely to have e-books on a smartphone or cloud-based.
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Vincent Guerard Coach - Trainer - Speaker - Advisor| Freelance Mont-Royal, Quebec, Canada
Interesting study.
So you have gender, age, books, electronic device. You may add ethnic origin, may represent an other variable in you study.
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Mahabubur Rahman Project Manager Structures-Bridges| Department of Infrastructure, Government of Nothwest Territories Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada
Very nice metric and us conversion skill-yeh!
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Sante Delle-Vergini, PhD Senior Project Manager| Infosys Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Not to mention our brain sizes have continued to shrink. While not at the same rate as transistors, the slide is downwards which one would suspect decreases weight, and in some philosophical circles, intelligence.
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Stéphane Parent Self Employed / Semi-retired| Leader Maker Prince Edward Island, Canada
Of course, your number of connections is not static. As of this writing you have an additional 130 connections. Perhaps you need to plot the tonnage as a linear graph over time?

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