Do you include contingency reserves for risks in the PMB (Performance Measurement Baseline)?
If these reserves are not included, the baseline will probably not be met, because in all projects at least some identified risks will occur.
But, including the reserves lead to two issues:
1) The EVM and specially the forecasts calculated from the EVM will not deliver correct results.
2) According to Parkinson’s law (“work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion”) the reserves will be used if risks will occur or not. This will result in an exceedance of the baseline, especially if risks occur at the end of the project.
Does it make sense to use the baseline without the reserves as a basis and increase the baseline with the reserves as soon as risks occur (similar to the handling of management reserves)? Saving Changes...
