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Do you use Monte Carlo analysis on your projects ?

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Nenad Pesic engineer| Michelin Gerzat, France
When I was preparing for my PMP exam I learned what Monte Carlo analysis is. But, to be honest, I have never used it. What is your experience ? Have you done it ? Was it useful ? How did you do it ? What software did you use ?
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Nenad -

I've used it a couple of times to date - both times was using the @Risk add in for MS Project. You provide a three point estimate for the activities which you are concerned about and it will run a number of simulations to give you a distribution of cost & schedule outcomes.

It does take some effort to use, especially with a large schedule, but it is a good way to determine whether a target deadline or budget falls within the "insane" zone!

One of the things I like about the PMBOK Guide Sixth Edition is they've provided a good chart of an MC-driven distribution. That was missing in the Fifth Edition which created some confusion about what it is...

Kiron
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1 reply by Nenad Pesic
Jan 26, 2018 1:35 PM
Nenad Pesic
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Thanks Kiron, very useful comment.
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Nenad Pesic engineer| Michelin Gerzat, France
Jan 26, 2018 1:26 PM
Replying to Kiron Bondale
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Nenad -

I've used it a couple of times to date - both times was using the @Risk add in for MS Project. You provide a three point estimate for the activities which you are concerned about and it will run a number of simulations to give you a distribution of cost & schedule outcomes.

It does take some effort to use, especially with a large schedule, but it is a good way to determine whether a target deadline or budget falls within the "insane" zone!

One of the things I like about the PMBOK Guide Sixth Edition is they've provided a good chart of an MC-driven distribution. That was missing in the Fifth Edition which created some confusion about what it is...

Kiron
Thanks Kiron, very useful comment.
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
As an ancient people I am I must used it when not software exist making calculations by hand. If you are not working inside an organization where the use of it is needed then forget about it. Why? 1-you need to know about statistic. 2-you need to have data available. 3-each activity or group of activities have a characteristic distribution then you have to decide which is the distribution that best characterizes it most of the time from existing data. If you do not have all that and you run the simulation the information you get will have a significant error.
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Sante Delle-Vergini, PhD Senior Project Manager| Infosys Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
I will check out the 6th Edition update on this as Kiron points out.
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Nenad Pesic engineer| Michelin Gerzat, France
Thank you Sante and Sergio.
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Kevin Drake Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Recently I came across excel sheet Monte Carlo and I tried it on actual activity;
My finding was: My values are used at random from the input that I had in mind. The result was a set of many possible outcomes which you might be not aware, because of your inputs order has changed. It tells you not only what could happen, but how likely it is to happen.

I need to check 6th edition as well.
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Nenad Pesic engineer| Michelin Gerzat, France
Hi Kevin, good to know it exists in excel. Thanks
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1 reply by Drew Craig
Jan 27, 2018 3:08 PM
Drew Craig
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Of course - Excel can do anything and everything :)
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Abolfazl Yousefi Darestani Manager, Quality and Continuous Improvement| Hörmann-TNR Industrial Doors Newmarket, Ontario, Canada
I personally have not used it yet. There are lots of tools and technique out there. You should apply the proper one as it required. Introducing a method in PMBOK does not mean that you have to use it in every project and does not mean there is not any other one.
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1 reply by Nenad Pesic
Jan 27, 2018 11:45 AM
Nenad Pesic
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I agree that you don't have to try every tool out there Abolfazl. But the more you know and the bigger your 'arsenal' the better.
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Nenad Pesic engineer| Michelin Gerzat, France
Jan 27, 2018 10:51 AM
Replying to Abolfazl Yousefi Darestani
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I personally have not used it yet. There are lots of tools and technique out there. You should apply the proper one as it required. Introducing a method in PMBOK does not mean that you have to use it in every project and does not mean there is not any other one.
I agree that you don't have to try every tool out there Abolfazl. But the more you know and the bigger your 'arsenal' the better.
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Drew Craig Sr. Agile & Product Coach| Vanguard Philadelphia, Pa, United States
Jan 27, 2018 4:48 AM
Replying to Nenad Pesic
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Hi Kevin, good to know it exists in excel. Thanks
Of course - Excel can do anything and everything :)
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