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Explain the probability of having a perfect NCAA men's basketball March Madness Bracket?

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George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
The odds of picking a perfect bracket in the NCAA men's basketball tournament are really, really small.

How is calculated?

What is the probability?
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
George -

Interesting question but they would have to figure out the probability of each possible pair of teams without the benefit of historical data as team composition and other variables change year-over-year.

One approach might be to do a pairwise comparison using multiple experts and then average out the findings...

Kiron
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Sromon Das Senior Project Manager| Mara Consulting Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
This is interesting. When do the first games begin? i don't follow NBA or NCAA but i'm curious to see how effective a pure statistical regression model would work.

/sd
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George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
It seems they are no experts in probability?

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketbal...ts/viewable_men
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George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
The probability of a perfect March Madness bracket are 1 in 9.2 Quintilian!

How was this calculated?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Smkv11Mj4


Published on Feb 29, 2012


The odds of picking a perfect bracket for the NCAA men’s basketball championship tournament are a staggering less than one in 9.2 quintillion according Jeff Bergen, mathematics professor at DePaul University. Basketball experts weigh in with insight into March Madness and analysis even before teams are chosen and ranked for the tournament on Selection Sunday.
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George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
What is the probability of picking the March Madness winning team?

Just the wining team not the entire bracket... This is a tricky question for those who loves probability...
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Sromon Das Senior Project Manager| Mara Consulting Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
interesting video. so that calculation assumes that for each game each team has a 50% probability of winning... maybe that assumption is mathematically sound (i'm no expert), but is that realistic?
...
1 reply by George Lewis
Mar 14, 2018 8:06 AM
George Lewis
...
Dan, yes it is mathematically sound! There is no other way aound it. Especially because we are looking for
The overall probability of a perfect bracket!

Another way would be assuming weight by the way they are placed in the bracket but this is not the intention of the question!
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George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
Mar 14, 2018 7:42 AM
Replying to Sromon Das
...
interesting video. so that calculation assumes that for each game each team has a 50% probability of winning... maybe that assumption is mathematically sound (i'm no expert), but is that realistic?
Dan, yes it is mathematically sound! There is no other way aound it. Especially because we are looking for
The overall probability of a perfect bracket!

Another way would be assuming weight by the way they are placed in the bracket but this is not the intention of the question!
avatar
George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
What is the probability of picking the March Madness winning team?

Just the wining team not the entire bracket... This is a tricky question for those who loves probability...
avatar
George Lewis Program/Project Manager| DXC Technology Company Heredia, Costa Rica
This is such an interesting type of decision tree which I have not fully analyzed... but would love to...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketba...brackets/games/

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