Interesting, I'd never heard it referred to that way. Usually, it is known as PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) analysis. I use it as much as possible when putting the schedule together. MS Project has it so that you can see the various scenarios. Saving Changes...
Anonymous
The PERT Method allows you to factor risk and unknowns into your estimates. As Bethany stated, MS Project can handle all three so that you you can have a best case, most likley and worst case plan. For me, that is a lot of work. Another approach is to get your 3 points and use them in the formula: (Best + MostLikely*4 + Worst)/6. That works for hours-based estimates as well as duration-based. Then use that estimate in your project plan. For easy-to-estimate/low risk tasks, the range between best and worst will be small. For higher risk tasks, or those with a lot of unknowns, the range will obvioulsy be higher. This is a great tool to use for those who don't want to give you an estimate because of uncertainties. Mathematically, the PERT formula approximates a point that is one standard deviation away from the mean... the higher the standard deviation, the less certain the estimate. You have to be careful with this as it can turn out to be a scientific-looking way to inflate your estimates. Saving Changes...
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