At the moment in our PMO we currently estimate the amount of days to be burnt based on the previous burn rate.
For example, in a particular month 8.6 days (8 hours) of actuals have been burnt in 15 days. This will give a straight forward current burn rate of 0.57 days each day for 15 days (8.6/15). However, the problem with this is that it doesn't take account of large differences. For example, on day 1 0.5 days were burnt but on day 5 2.1 days (between 2 people) were burnt. So it makes it unreliable to predict how many days left will be burnt in the remaning ETC (time left) as it is not an accurate and relective burn rate.
One alternative that has been suggested to me was to use a cumulative trend line (log or straight?) for the 15 day period to get a more accurate burn rate.
I was wondering if anyone had any ideas or imput or alternatives of how they get around this problem.
Regards,
S
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Andy JordanPresident| Roffensian Consulting S.A.Cherry Grove, AB, Canada
S, I think that before that question needs to be answered you need to take a step back and determine exactly what you are trying to determine. Is the concern that a project is falling behind, that resource utilization is varying from plan, etc. There is a danger that by focusing on the measure (burn rate) you are missing the bigger picture that needs to be addressed. Similarly, is the daily variation in burn rate understood - is it just availability, or is it a symptom of a larger problem that needs to be addressed. My concern with such large variation would be that the measure itself may not be a reliable metric for the business goal and you may need to look at other options. Not really an answer to your question, but I hope that helps! Andy Jordan, President, Roffensian Consulting Inc., www.roffensian.com Saving Changes...
