Triangular Distribution - Three-point estimating technique

last edited by: Alba Gonzalez Hernando on Apr 14, 2019 8:17 AM login/register to edit this page


Triangular distribution is a common formula used when there is insufficient historical data to estimate duration of an activity. It is based on three points that consider estimation uncertainty and risk.

  • Most likely (M): estimate based on the duration of the activity given all the other considerations.
  • Optimistic (O): estimate based on the best-case scenario.
  • Pessimistic (P): estimate based on the worst-case scenario.
  • Formula: Expected duration of the activity (E) = (O+M+P)/3

    References:

  • A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, Project Management Institute.


last edited by: Alba Gonzalez Hernando on Apr 14, 2019 8:17 AM login/register to edit this page


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