The Management Illusion Zone

 

In last week’s blog I discussed the difference between the structure of valid management information systems, and one of the versions of invalid systems, which are essentially polls. This week I want to discuss the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call – no, not the Twilight Zone! Whoddaythink I am, Rod Serling? It is an area (cue the creepy guitar music) I like to call…

The Management Illusion Zone.

You’re about to meet a project controls analyst, one Mr. Sam Earnest. His project is entering a critical phase, where just one misstep could lead to disaster. He provides one of two competing management information streams, the valid one which could his project to success; the other, a risk management baseline and analysis. Mr. Earnest is about to enter… the Management Illusion Zone.

Scene I: setting, Dirk Bailey’s office.

(Knock, knock)

Bailey: Come in!

Enter: Sam Earnest, Project Controls Manager (who looks suspiciously like William Shatner), and Wanda Devlin, Risk Manager (who bears a strong resemblance to Julie Newmar).

Bailey: Do you two have your monthly reports ready?

Both: Yes.

Bailey: We’ll begin with you, Sam.

Sam: On your Cost Performance Report, overall you’re okay, but there’s this one task that’s showing both a negative cost and schedule variance. I’ve drilled down through the WBS, and the specific task having trouble is the Finalize Design activity.

Wanda: I performed a risk evaluation of the entire baseline, that task included, and my report indicates that it’s perfectly fine – very little risk, if at all.

Sam: This isn’t about whether or not anybody recognized that it was risky beforehand. This is about what a negative variance will do to the project right now. That activity is on the critical path, with at least a dozen other activities not being able to start until its completion.

Bailey: I’m afraid I’m with Wanda on this one, Sam. What could possibly go wrong with getting the final approval of the design? It passed its preliminary reviews with flying colors.

Sam: I’m not sure, but I’ve heard rumors that its Work Package Manager – Henry Bemis (who, incidentally, looks a lot like the late Burgess Meredith) – spends so much time reading requirements that he isn’t connecting with the right people to get final design approved.

Wanda: The odds of that happening are approximately 700 – to – 1. I’m telling you, I’m looking at the exact same task, and there’s no problem there.

Sam (becoming visibly agitated): And I’m telling you there is! If you guys don’t do something, it’ll wreck the whole project!

Wanda: Sam, relax. We’re all on board the same project team. By the way – how are you coming along with your recovery? Didn’t you have some sort of breakdown six months ago?

Sam (caught off guard): Well, yes, Wanda, thanks so much for bringing that up. I’m getting along fine. Now, back to this variance…

Bailey: It simply defies common sense that something so trivial as getting a final design authorization could endanger the whole project, Sam. It’s really just a formality.

Sam: Formality or not, if we don’t get it squared away, we’re looking at blowing past the project’s early payment milestones.

Wanda: The odds of that happening are…

Sam: How can you possibly compute that?

Wanda: It’s from the Monte Carlo analysis of the baseline.

Sam (becoming more agitated): It makes no difference what kind of formulaic approach you took, if the feeder data represents unquantifiable events! What did you put down as the odds that an internally-approved design wouldn’t get final external authorization until after the scheduled milestone?

Wanda (looking over her reports): We gave that the typical administrative-type odds, 15%.

Sam (almost hysterical from frustration, now): But don’t you see, that’s exactly what happened!

Bailey: Sam, you’re a little too involved here. I think it would be best if you were to be removed from the project, and go someplace where you can rest. Wanda can generate all the management information I need until you’re calmer, more comfortable.

At this, two men dressed in scrubs come in, and take Sam away in a straight jacket.

Narrator: The work of Mr. Sam Earnest has ended now, reporting not only from task through to project, but also from the fear of recurring project breakdown. Mr. Earnest has that fear still... though, for the moment, he is alone in this concern. Happily, his conviction will not remain isolated too much longer, for the project does end up late and overrun, tangible manifestation of the dangers of relying on contemporary risk analysis techniques, even from so intangible a quarter as the Management Illusion Zone.