Time-Travelling PM Adventures

 

Scene 1: A conference room, circa 2015, with a project team seated around a long table.
Tim (the PM): Okay, folks, things have been going largely as expected so far, but I think we need to change our approach, based on some recent observations.
Mark: If it’s working, why should we change it?
Tim (rolling his eyes): You’re new at this project management stuff, Mark, but when you’ve been around as long as I have, you learn to tap into the insights of stakeholders.
Alice: Which stakeholders?
Tim: A combination of our vendors, plus some people who were holding signs about our project, and were protesting just outside the building.
Mark: Wait, what? We’re using advice from people who don’t want our project to succeed?
Alice (shouting): They’re STAKEHOLDERS, Mark! They have a right to be heard!
Mark: I’m not saying we should shut them up, I’m just questioning the reasoning behind using their advice for project decision-making.
Tim (sighs): Everyone knows that all stakeholders must be listened to, Mark, or else we wouldn’t be doing project management correctly!
Peter: You’re not forgetting my input, are you, Tim?
Tim: Of course not, Peter. Any project that is managed correctly has lots of input from the Risk Manager.
Peter: Based on my analysis, we need to set aside 20% of the project’s budget for contingency events.
Mark: 20%? We don’t have more than 5% in reserves – and the only way to come up with the other 15% would be to cut scope!
Peter: Then we’ll have to cut scope.
Mark: By 15%? What, specifically, do you intend to cut? 
Peter: Perhaps we can take a few points from each Work Package.
Mark: Tim just got done saying we’re performing at even! The Work Package managers don’t have any margin to give back! Besides, percentages aren’t cumulative – in order to get to 15% across the board, then each WP will have to give back that much.
Tim: Nevertheless, we’ll send out a memo, directing the WP Managers to send more to the reserves.
Mark: Dare I ask about what kind of analysis was performed that has led to such drastic actions?
Peter: A Monte Carlo analysis has indicated, with an 85% confidence interval, that we will need 20% reserves to cover predicted difficulties.
Mark: Did this analysis take into account a scenario where the Work Package Managers are suddenly and capriciously deprived of 15% of their budgets?
Peter: No, but we can re-calculate, based on that scenario.
Mark: Is any of this based on documented research, or testable hypotheses?
Tim (sighing): No, Mark, but you will eventually learn that involving stakeholders and integrating risk management is key to all project success.

Scene 2: A town hall, circa 1515, with some local farmers seated around a long table.
Tim (the town’s agricultural director): Okay, folks, we’ve largely done okay over the past dozen or so growing seasons, but for the one coming up we’ll have to change some things.
Mark: If it’s working, why should we change it?
Tim (rolling his eyes): You’re new at this managed agriculture stuff, Mark, but when you’ve been around as long as I have, you learn to tap into the insights of stakeholders.
Alice: Which stakeholders?
Tim: A combination of our landowners, plus some people who were objecting to our crop selections, and were protesting just outside the building.
Mark: Wait, what? We’re using advice from people who don’t want our farms to succeed?
Alice (shouting): They’re STAKEHOLDERS, Mark! They have a right to be heard!
Mark: I’m not saying we should shut them up, I’m just questioning the reasoning behind using their advice for crop selection-making.
Tim (sighs): Everyone knows that all stakeholders must be listened to, Mark, or else we wouldn’t be doing agricultural management correctly!
Peter: You’re not forgetting my input, are you, Tim?
Tim: Of course not, Peter. Any farm that is managed correctly has lots of input from the animal observers.
Peter: Based on my observations of the groundhogs, we need to plant about 20 days earlier this year.
Mark: 20 days? We can’t afford to be more than 5 days too early, or else we’re risking the seedlings getting frozen, and ruined!
Peter: Then we’ll have to plant freeze-resistant crops.
Mark: What if “freeze resistant” crops don’t yield enough foodstuffs?  What crops, specifically, do you intend to supplant? 
Peter: Perhaps we can plant a wide variety.
Mark: Tim just got done saying we’re producing the right amount! The various farmers don’t have any margin to diversify! Besides, diverse crops aren’t necessarily freeze resistant – in order to match last year’s production, we’ll have to plant at least as much of the proven crops as we did then.
Tim: Nevertheless, we’ll send out a town crier, directing the farmers to diversify.
Mark: Dare I ask about what kind of analysis was performed that has led to such drastic actions?
Peter: My observations of groundhogs indicate that, if it sees its shadow on February 2, then harsh conditions will continue for another six weeks of freezes – otherwise, it’s safe to plant early.
Mark: Did this analysis take into account a scenario where the groundhog casts a shadow, but doesn’t happen to look down?
Peter: No, but we can re-calculate, based on that scenario.
Mark: Is any of this based on documented research, or testable hypotheses?
Tim (sighing): No, Mark, but you will eventually learn that diversifying crops and integrating groundhog behavior is key to all agricultural success.

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” (Les Guepes, 1849)