The Case Of The Business Analysis Red Herring

 

It was yet another dark and stormy night. My secretary had just left, complaining yet again over not having been paid exactly on-time, and slamming the frosted glass door with my name on it, ylnatS yrrebpsaR, eyE etavirP behind her, when the phone rang.

“Is this Raspberry?” the older man’s voice at the other end inquired.

“Is that who you called?”

“Yeah, but I was expecting your secretary to answer.”

“She’s upset about something, and left early. Is this Roger Doright?”

Roger had been one of my earliest clients. He was a regular, straight-up guy, something of a mentor to me. As he approached retirement age, he had turned over more and more of his corporation’s decision-making to his kids.

“Yeah, it’s me. How have you been Stanly? I haven’t spoken to you in years.”

“I’m good Roger. How are things with you?”

“Well, I’m having a bit of a problem, which is why I called you. I have a hunch that a couple of the major projects in my company’s portfolio are about to go off the tracks, but their PMs insist that all is well, and offer up reports reflecting that. I can’t argue with the reports, so I need somebody to dig a little bit deeper. Are you available?”

“Sure. I can be out there tomorrow morning.”

“One more thing…” Roger continued, “my youngest son, Irvin, needs to learn the project management ropes, so I would like for him to accompany you.”

“What’s his background?”

“Oh, he’s been through all the relevant classes and coursework to do what you do, the whole investigative PM thing, with his specific role being ‘Clue Analyst.’ But he lacks real experience. He’ll meet you at my corporate headquarters tomorrow morning.”

As I put down the phone, I remember thinking “Great, just great. A newly-minted ‘Clue Analyst.’ But Roger has done so much for me, that I suppose I can grit my way through this.”

*   *   *

The dark and stormy night had given way to a bright, clear morning. An overly enthusiastic young man approached me in the foyer of the office building.

“Stanly Raspberry? I’m Irvin Doright. Let’s get  you badged in – the portfolio reviews are about to start, down in the Hatfield Conference Room.”

“The what conference room?”

“It’s in the basement. It was named after an obscure ProjectManagement.com blogger my father liked to read. Let’s get going.”

As we walked into the conference room, several of the PMs glanced up, recognized me, and stifled grimaces.

“What’s he doing here?” I heard one whisper to another.

I looked over the review documents in the pack that was passed out to the participants as I took a seat in the back. The first PM got up to address the projected slides behind him.

“As you can see, my project is on-time and on-budget. At this rate of performance…”

“Excuse me,” I interrupted, “but I can’t seem to find the Cost Performance Reports.”

“The CPRs are in the back.”

“Oh, okay, but why aren’t they in the front? Why are we talking about … what is that chart, anyway?”

“It’s the bottoms-up Estimate at Completion, showing that we’ll finish on-budget.”

“Well, I did a quick calculated EAC, and your own Earned Value data indicates a $12 million dollar overrun.”

“Mr. Raspberry, I’m not seeing that in the risk register!” Irvin hissed at me.

“Nor is that consistent with our information” the PM added.

“That’s because conventional risk analysis techniques and bottoms-up EACs are irrelevant to project performance and accurate at-completion figures” I replied.

Most of the people in the room gasped, almost as if they were paid actors awaiting some common-sense challenge to their embraced business model.

“Irvin Doright here is the owner’s son” began the PM, “and heads up our risk management division. Irvin, do you agree with Mr. Raspberry’s assertion?”

“Absolutely not – risk management deals with virtually all aspects of project management, and my Monte Carlo analyses have been spot on.”

“Not this time” I answered.

“Bruno, confiscate Mr. Raspberry’s badge, and escort him off the premises” Irvin ordered.

Once I was “escorted” off the site, I placed a call to Roger.

“I think I see your problem…”