Ship of Fools

 

The world is full of fools.

You can find them in every nook and cranny of the streets. “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool,” wrote Shakespeare in his famous play “As You Like It”. Well, this literally means that, once in a while, you will find yourself bumping into one of these fools whether you like it or not. Are you able to sift them out from the crowd? How should you deal with them?

I have met enough fools in the projects that I have worked on. As Bertrand Russell once said, “The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” I share the same sentiment as Russell. This is exactly how fools behave; regardless of whether they are the genuine or the imagined type. Their overconfidence or lack of confidence may turn out to be the latent Achilles’ heel in your projects. The outcome could be catastrophic if it is not being managed well. Unfortunately, they represent one of those top key people issues you have to deal with in project management.

David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University jointly coined the phenomenon described above as the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’ - a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes. In short, this has a similar meaning to the popular quote “he who knows not, and knows not that he knows not, is a fool, shun him”, or the fools are too foolish to know that they are foolish. Dunning and Kruger argued in their paper that – “When people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it.”

How could you differentiate fools from experts when the fools proclaim themselves to be experts while the experts believe that they are fools? As Kruger and Dunning conclude, “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.” Haven’t you come across some smug-faced suppliers who are always boastful about their capabilities but constantly weak in their deliveries? Or a wimpy worrywart in your team that is forever skeptical about what could be accomplished in the project? It is also obvious that Dunning-Kruger effect is applicable to project managers too. Does your project manager have the capability to manage the project in the way that it should be? You probably do not have the answer. The reason is you will need to be very experienced and knowledgeable in project management before you can assess whether your project manager has the capability. Unfortunately, according to Putt’s Law, most people typically do not have good understanding in what they manage.

There are several factors that constitute to the Dunning-Kruger effect. The main argument postulates that fools, due to their incompetency, do not have the necessary skills that are required for self-assessment. In other words, “We’re not very good at knowing what we don’t know,” as Dunning nicely put. On the other hand, flatteries and excessive kudos could be just as bad. Remember the emperor in the tale “The Emperor's New Clothes”? Sometimes, people are being cajoled unknowingly to believe that they are good in something which, in reality, is the exact opposite. I have come across managers that send out standard “Good job, well done!” compliments to the team regardless of the actual performance. All these blindfolded the fools from their incompetency.

So, what can you do to avoid having your project team turning into a ship of fools? Here are a few ideas that you may try:

1. Drop the ‘Mr. Nice’ image and be truthful and sincere in the feedback you give to the team. Do remember that your team will not be able to learn and improve if they cannot differentiate between right and wrong.
2. Empower, motivate and show confidence in your team even if they do not have confidence in themselves. This is extremely crucial in critical times and if you have done it right, you will see the star players in your team shine.
3. Set clear measurable standards and establish a formal review process to actively let the team know how well they have performed. Ensure that there is a balance between positive and negative feedback and, if possible, provide examples to support your points.

I could go on and on rambling about Dunning-Kruger effect and ways to minimize its impact. However, I am not an expert in psychology and definitely not very good at knowing what I don’t know. Hence, I will leave it to the rest of you to chime in with your ideas and thoughts on this topic.