Feb 11, 2020 2:23 PM
Replying to Aaron Porter
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Velocity is a backward-looking measure that can be used for forward-looking estimating, but it's still an estimate. You are wanting to use the size of the total effort divided by the velocity to determine the number of sprints, hence when you can expect to release. You can establish your team's velocity based on the work they have performed. You can estimate the release based on the work they will perform. The variable is waiting for content from external sources.
Is this a fair assessment?
Do you have enough historical information to be able to estimate the expected delay(s) due to external dependencies? One approach might be to create a spike/story for expected delay. How you size this story would vary based on the length of the expected delay and the length of your sprints. I'm not saying this is the best way. The point is to plan for the delay - it's a risk that you need a mitigation plan for.
Does this make sense? Am I missing anything?