What is the relationship between complexity and uncertainty in projects? If there is a complex activity, can you have little uncertainty? If there is an activity with high uncertainty, does it have to be complex? Or are they independent in some cases? Saving Changes...
when a coin is flipped there is uncertainty about whether it will land heads or tails, but there is low (no) complexity regarding the potential outcomes. Higher complexity might cause higher levels of uncertainty but just because a situation is uncertain doesn't mean that is complex.
Kiron Saving Changes...
Thomas WalentaGlobal Project Economy ExpertHackenheim, Germany
Jorge,
both complexity and uncertainty are perceptions of individuals, not attributes of or in reality. The opposites are simplicity and certainty and each individual perceives situations on the scale between complex and simple, uncertain and certain. For each thing and situation.
There are many strategies to shift the dial in your head for both. For example, changing perspectives, applying mental models, obtaining more information or just simplification (!) can lead to go from complex to simple. Same is true for uncertainty.
I do not see a direct cause/effect but in my experience I would say if you simplify you will see more certainty, and vice versa.
Complexity may lead to greater uncertainty, but it really comes down to the degree of uncertainty to your various pieces of the overall puzzle.
To use a physical example, if you had 1000 parts that have to fit together, each one will have some variance but statistically some will be over the target value and some under. When you combine them all using statistical error analysis the total variance is not the sum of all the individual variances, but because of the plusses and minuses, the total variance grows slowly with each addition.
What you actually find is that the part with the greatest variance will tend to dominate the total result. The end result is that if you had a situation with very low complexity, but one item with a very high degree of uncertainty, that can easily lead to a result with much greater uncertainty than if you had 1000 items, each with very low uncertainty. The largest influencing factor usually drives the most uncertainty in the result. Saving Changes...
Sergio Luis ConteHelping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based OrganizationsBuenos Aires, Argentina
Both are totally different things But in this case, to talk about this, we can go from philosophy to mathematics indeed. Putting this in the field we usually work with both terms I have to say that everything is complex and everything have uncertainty. Activities are not simple or complex because the multiple factors involved on the activity. And people in this world has to understand they are living in a sea of uncertainty. One of the biggest mistakes is to forget uncertainty when we work with things related to projects. Saving Changes...
Product Operations Program ManagerBarcelona, Cataluña, Spain
In addition to all the good comments given above, it is worth stressing that the level of complexity is subjective, whereas the level of (un)certainty is rather objective. The former can be de-complexed by training and learning, the latter not so much. Saving Changes...
Fritz MüllerBlumenversand CCO| Wien Blumen GmbHAustria
When complexity overwhelms the efficiency of finishing a project, I like to break it down into several simpler steps. It happens to us often, as we are a relatively small company based in Vienna trying to expand. We're constantly struggling between the problems of a small and big company, and trying to take that step.
Best of luck Saving Changes...
George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
Uncertainty exists on all projects and is associated with:
- Risks related to unknown future events
- Complexity associated with unpredictable outcomes
- situational Ambiguity, the recognition that more than one outcome is possible
This PMBOK inspired definition highlights the normality of Uncertainty and its associated characteristics within project management.
Speaking to your question:
I’m in alignment with @Thomas, as I also see Uncertainty and Complexity as perceptions or, otherwise stated, ambiguous sentiments, as they have more than one meaning to an observer. I make this statement not from a philosophical position but my forty years of experience.
There are multiple tools for breaking down complexity and unveiling certainty. However, the premises that guide one to those judgments need open challenging before one embarks on remediating the concerns. Saving Changes...
It's an interesting concept, but I believe thay they are completly independent.
You may have complex activities that are not uncertain at all, they are just complex to deliver. And you can have activities that are simple but uncertain, perhaps in the execution or the outcome.
I guess this would be very hard to pinpoint, because it would involve too many variables to get to something concrete.
For instance, what's the source of the uncertainty? Is it the activity itself or the activities related, perhaps the environment itself, or the subsequent activities...?
Of course there are activities that can present both characteristics, but in my opinion, one is completly independent from the other, they may happen to coincide, or not... Saving Changes...
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