Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Jun 16, 2022 11:02 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
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Dear Rami
Thank you for participating in this reflection.
The world is no longer what it used to be!
How to assess risks in times of such great and rapid change?
You have to be nimble, ready to pivot and increase frequency the assessment and re-assessment of your risks. As funny as it seems, we do daily risk assessment these days for some of our projects as we live in a very uncertain period of time. Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
Jun 16, 2022 11:07 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
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Dear Stephane
Thank you for participating in this reflection.
The world is no longer what it used to be!
I'm convinced the sovereign debt crisis is lurking
I have doubts if the states, despite being so indebted, will take on more debt to finance their projects
I'm happy to disprove you, Luis. The Canadian Government announced yesterday it will be investing another $8.9B to help Canadians deal with inflation.
That's going to create a bunch of new projects to implement and disburse the new or updated benefits.
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1 reply by Luis Branco
Jun 17, 2022 10:54 AM
Luis Branco
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Dear Stephane
Are you going to issue debt to distribute to Canadians? :-)
Or will you raise taxes?
Are there free lunches?
It depends. Some of them will be on hold. Some will be pushed. Priorities has changed due to the reasons you mentioned.
TBH, I do not know. Again, it depends. I think the unemployment rate will increase a little bit.
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1 reply by Stéphane Parent
Jun 17, 2022 10:04 AM
Stéphane Parent
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In Canada and the U.S., unemployment is at an all time low.
Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
Jun 17, 2022 8:37 AM
Replying to Abolfazl Yousefi Darestani
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TBH, I do not know. Again, it depends. I think the unemployment rate will increase a little bit.
In Canada and the U.S., unemployment is at an all time low.
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1 reply by Luis Branco
Jun 17, 2022 10:52 AM
Luis Branco
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Dear Stephane
I know that in the USA and Canada the unemployment rate is very low
Until when? (taking into account this conjuncture)
Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jun 17, 2022 10:04 AM
Replying to Stéphane Parent
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In Canada and the U.S., unemployment is at an all time low.
Dear Stephane
I know that in the USA and Canada the unemployment rate is very low
Until when? (taking into account this conjuncture)
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1 reply by Stéphane Parent
Jun 17, 2022 11:08 AM
Stéphane Parent
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If I knew that, Luis, I would be rich.
Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jun 17, 2022 8:02 AM
Replying to Stéphane Parent
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I'm happy to disprove you, Luis. The Canadian Government announced yesterday it will be investing another $8.9B to help Canadians deal with inflation.
That's going to create a bunch of new projects to implement and disburse the new or updated benefits.
Dear Stephane
Are you going to issue debt to distribute to Canadians? :-)
Or will you raise taxes?
Are there free lunches?
...
1 reply by Stéphane Parent
Jun 17, 2022 11:07 AM
Stéphane Parent
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I thought we were talking about projects, Luis? If you want to talk about macro-economics, that's another kettle of fish!
Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
Jun 17, 2022 10:54 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
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Dear Stephane
Are you going to issue debt to distribute to Canadians? :-)
Or will you raise taxes?
Are there free lunches?
I thought we were talking about projects, Luis? If you want to talk about macro-economics, that's another kettle of fish!
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1 reply by Luis Branco
Jun 17, 2022 12:16 PM
Luis Branco
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Dear Stéphane
Does the context in which the projects are developed affect the projects?
I thought we were talking about projects, risk considering what are the implications that the context has in their realization (new projects), continuity or suspension
Saving Changes...
Stéphane ParentSelf Employed / Semi-retired| Leader MakerPrince Edward Island, Canada
Jun 17, 2022 10:52 AM
Replying to Luis Branco
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Dear Stephane
I know that in the USA and Canada the unemployment rate is very low
Until when? (taking into account this conjuncture)
If I knew that, Luis, I would be rich. Saving Changes...
Luis BrancoCEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, LdªCarcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Jun 17, 2022 11:07 AM
Replying to Stéphane Parent
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I thought we were talking about projects, Luis? If you want to talk about macro-economics, that's another kettle of fish!
Dear Stéphane
Does the context in which the projects are developed affect the projects?
I thought we were talking about projects, risk considering what are the implications that the context has in their realization (new projects), continuity or suspension Saving Changes...
Peter RapinSubject Matter Expect; Project Delivery| Independent ConsultantOntario, Canada
There has been a fairly long build-up to the current situation and hopefully the "inflation" risk was identified at the beginning of the project and mitigation measures identified, whether its project shut down and team reassignment/termination or financial adjustments made. Hopefully this is not a surprise.
In many cases it may mean revisiting the Business Case or reworking the Project Plan.
Generally, governments combat high inflation with a slow down led by reduced government spending and encourage with increased cost of money with the theory that one cannot fight inflation by throwing money at it.
So, too much restraint will bring on a recession, insufficient restraint with feed the inflation cycle.
I am of the opinion that the western governments with toy with trying to buy their way through this inflation cycle (short term pain control) thus applying insufficient restraint (continued and more projects) but ultimately (12 to 24 months) will have to move on to significant restraint meaning significant downward project pressures (cancellations). The private sector will react negatively (project cancellations) much more quickly.
Private sector investment is greater than government investment so expect increases in project stress and industry unemployment driven by interest rate increases.
The interesting part is that governments will strong-arm the private sector to slow down through the interest rate increases while the government tries to balance that with additional spending. To the casual observer it will mean - private sector bad; government good.
Sorry, a little politics here but they say venting is good for the soul.
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1 reply by Luis Branco
Jun 18, 2022 2:49 PM
Luis Branco
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Dear Peter
Thank you for participating in this reflection.
Times of great uncertainty are approaching
We've been chasing damage for years.
The pandemic led to a lot of money being thrown into the economy.
End of the pandemic and, as an expected result, inflation, the increase in interest rates, the increase in the debt of companies, the state and families.
Recession outlook
Not to mention the energy crisis (with particular reference to Europe)
One thing is for sure: Governments will invest more and more in the military armament production industry with embedded technology.
Many projects will emerge in this domain
I believe that in Europe there will be many projects in the field of what has been designated as clean energy
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