Project Stage/Phase Gate and cost estimate accuracy

Dear Louis,

Your quest for references on project stage/phase gate and cost estimate accuracy at each stage is an important part of ensuring that your project management practices align with industry standards and benchmarks. While I cannot conduct live searches or access the latest market-specific documents, I can provide guidance based on established project management methodologies and practices:

1. Project Management Institute (PMI) Resources:
PMBOK® Guide: The PMI's A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) is a key resource, although it might not provide specific percentage accuracies for cost estimates at different stages. It offers a comprehensive framework for project management that can be tailored to specific organizational needs.
PMI Publications: Other PMI publications and white papers might offer insights into industry benchmarks and best practices.
2. Cost Estimate Accuracy by Project Stage:
Ideation/Conceptual Stage: Cost estimates at this early stage are generally rough order of magnitude (ROM). The accuracy range can be -25% to +75%.
Business Case/Feasibility: At this stage, as the project scope becomes clearer, the estimates are more refined but still subject to significant variance, often in the range of -15% to +50%.
Initiation and Planning: Once the project moves into detailed planning, cost estimates become more accurate. The range here might narrow to -10% to +25%.
3. Industry-Specific Standards:
Different industries might have specific benchmarks for cost estimate accuracy at various project stages. For instance, construction, engineering, and IT projects may follow different standards.
Industry associations and publications can be valuable resources for industry-specific benchmarks.
4. Research and Academic Publications:
Journals and academic papers on project management occasionally address cost estimation and may provide insights or case studies with empirical data.
5. Consulting with Industry Experts:
Engaging with project management consultants or firms that specialize in project cost estimation can provide customized insights and benchmarks relevant to your industry and type of projects.
6. Continued Professional Development:
Attend seminars, webinars, and workshops focusing on project cost management. Industry events often present the latest trends and standards in project management, including cost estimation.
7. Collaboration and Networking:
Participate in professional forums, online communities, or LinkedIn groups dedicated to project management. Peer insights can be invaluable in understanding current market practices.
Conclusion:
Finding precise industry benchmarks for cost estimate accuracy at different project stages can be challenging due to variances in project types, industries, and market conditions. It's often a combination of leveraging PMI resources, understanding industry-specific standards, and continuously engaging with the project management community that provides the most comprehensive understanding. Additionally, customizing these benchmarks to fit your organization's specific context and project types is crucial for effective project cost management.

BR,

Markus

Louis -

Here is one reference from the software development world: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2..._of_Uncertainty

Searches for Cone of Uncertainty will provide many others...

Kiron

Louis, on our construction projects, the estimates are normally as follows:

1) Initiation or Feasibility Stage: ROM +/-50%
2) Conceptual Design: +/- 25%
3) Design Development: +/- 15% - We call it Class D Estimate
4) Tendering/Execution Phase: +/- 5% - We call it Class C Estimate

Hope this helps.

Dear Louis,

Your quest for references on project stage/phase gate and cost estimate accuracy at each stage is an important part of ensuring that your project management practices align with industry standards and benchmarks. While I cannot conduct live searches or access the latest market-specific documents, I can provide guidance based on established project management methodologies and practices:

1. Project Management Institute (PMI) Resources:
PMBOK® Guide: The PMI's A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) is a key resource, although it might not provide specific percentage accuracies for cost estimates at different stages. It offers a comprehensive framework for project management that can be tailored to specific organizational needs.
PMI Publications: Other PMI publications and white papers might offer insights into industry benchmarks and best practices.
2. Cost Estimate Accuracy by Project Stage:
Ideation/Conceptual Stage: Cost estimates at this early stage are generally rough order of magnitude (ROM). The accuracy range can be -25% to +75%.
Business Case/Feasibility: At this stage, as the project scope becomes clearer, the estimates are more refined but still subject to significant variance, often in the range of -15% to +50%.
Initiation and Planning: Once the project moves into detailed planning, cost estimates become more accurate. The range here might narrow to -10% to +25%.
3. Industry-Specific Standards:
Different industries might have specific benchmarks for cost estimate accuracy at various project stages. For instance, construction, engineering, and IT projects may follow different standards.
Industry associations and publications can be valuable resources for industry-specific benchmarks.
4. Research and Academic Publications:
Journals and academic papers on project management occasionally address cost estimation and may provide insights or case studies with empirical data.
5. Consulting with Industry Experts:
Engaging with project management consultants or firms that specialize in project cost estimation can provide customized insights and benchmarks relevant to your industry and type of projects.
6. Continued Professional Development:
Attend seminars, webinars, and workshops focusing on project cost management. Industry events often present the latest trends and standards in project management, including cost estimation.
7. Collaboration and Networking:
Participate in professional forums, online communities, or LinkedIn groups dedicated to project management. Peer insights can be invaluable in understanding current market practices.
Conclusion:
Finding precise industry benchmarks for cost estimate accuracy at different project stages can be challenging due to variances in project types, industries, and market conditions. It's often a combination of leveraging PMI resources, understanding industry-specific standards, and continuously engaging with the project management community that provides the most comprehensive understanding. Additionally, customizing these benchmarks to fit your organization's specific context and project types is crucial for effective project cost management.

BR,

Markus