Calculate probability of comply deadlines an initial schedule using first risk detection , montecarlo and tornado analysis.
Act as a project manager risk specialist to Analyze the following schedule using a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability of meeting the contractual date. Produce S-curves for the distribution of completion dates, percentiles (P50, P60, P80, P90, P100), and identify critical activities under critical risk. Assume a standard variability of 15%.
I also want you to provide 8 measures I can take with my client, my engineering team, the factory, logistics, and other support areas in order to achieve a delivery scenario close to the contractual target (March 30, 2027) in case meeting it proves difficult.
The analysis must include a plotted S-curve showing the probabilities of reaching nearby dates such as March 30, 2027; April 15, 2027; April 30, 2027; May 15, 2027; May 30, 2027; and June 15, 2027.
Finally, present all these results in a presentation to show to key stakeholders, so we can make decisions and negotiate a contractual time extension if the target date of March 30, 2027 cannot be met.
I'm attaching the project KOM presentation, the commercial proposal, and the baseline schedule. Please take into account that the equipment ships from a factory in China (with emphasis on holidays, Chinese New Year, festivals, shutdowns, strikes, geopolitical events, and shipping routes).
Develop a professional analysis with a breakdown of risks and their mitigation measures, then export it to Word including the S-curve chart and a tornado diagram showing the top 6 risk drivers and their effect on schedule slippage.
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