Product Operations Program ManagerBarcelona, Cataluña, Spain
I learned a lot reading all the feedback on this question. Thanks Rami for posting it, it triggered a lot of insightful reactions.
Going back to the original question "Is padding a professional option?" I have to go with NO. I make the assumption that padding is always conscious. If done unconsciously, this would rather fall under the poor estimating abilities.
In addition, padding is a free pass to the student syndrome (Wikipedia = planned procrastination, when, for example, a student will only start to apply themselves to an assignment at the last possible moment before its deadline. This eliminates any potential safety margins and puts the person under stress and pressure).
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1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Mar 17, 2020 2:18 PM
Rami Kaibni
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Eduard
Spot on, I agree, padding is not a professional option and frankly speaking, I consider it unethical as it lack any sort of transparency.
George FreemanThought Leader | Author | Architect| Florida, United States
@Peter makes a good point, that Padding is normally hidden, and @Keith hit the home-run with the statement that, “padding is for the unknown-unknowns, while contingency is for the known-unknowns.” If we recognize the above facts, then a PM also recognizes that without transparency they are blind to the recipes being used in the estimates.
My point is this: PM’s must accept the fact that human estimates are impacted by emotional factors. So, the question is this, do you ignore this fact, or do you “bring it into the light” and manage to it? My experience is that acknowledgement of emotional factors and discussing and giving these factors validity creates an environment that yields healthier estimates.
Let’s recognize the role that emotions play in all parts of project management, and go out of our way to make these aspects “part of the conversation.” Doing so, creates better outputs and outcomes.
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1 reply by Rami Kaibni
Mar 17, 2020 2:21 PM
Rami Kaibni
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George
Please refer to my response to Keith. I am not sure I agree with the first part of your comment.
As for the emotional factor, yes, it does play a part not only in this but in every other decision. However, and while it might slightly affect the estimate, that doesn't make it padding.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 16, 2020 4:21 PM
Replying to Manuel Perez
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Sometimes padding is forced upon PM's by the organization. Although, I don't ever use padding, it is a battle to convince the organization that your estimated cost are valid. If you are in an organization that always requires you to lower your estimates, then as a result PM's will up their estimates to end at a level which it needs to be.
Manuel
I understand the pressure we sometimes get from up the ladder BUT we have an ethical obligation to always be transparent and honest.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 16, 2020 9:02 PM
Replying to Peter Rapin
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I propose a simple concept of padding versus contingencies or even risk allowances.
Contingencies and risk allowances are calculated line items - transparent.
Padding is hidden, only the author(s) knows its there and how much there is - opposite of transparent.
It can become a nasty game - the costing people pad expecting the bosses to cut knowing that the costs have been padded. Ultimately the entire costing exercise is meaningless.
Very well said Peter - You nailed it and that's why I consider Padding to be a bad practice that lacks transparency and honesty. Saving Changes...
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 17, 2020 4:03 AM
Replying to Anton Oosthuizen
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We sit with a lack of official definition for padding. The argument that padding is not the same contingency is totally flawed because it may or may not be true depending on how and why padding was done. You could argue that if you pad correctly you create a contingency in your schedule but if you pad price to inflate our profit margin you are unethical. So in the absence of an official definition in this context, we could also argue that to pad something is to make it more comfortable i.e. increasing my likelihood of achieving a milestone.
So to just state that padding is wrong or right can never be anything other than a subjective opinion made by somebody with knowledge about the particular situation.
Anton
Padding is totally different than Contingency (Refer to Peter's Response) so I humbly disagree with what you've mentioned.
In the way you defined it "Padding Correctly" this is basically doing proper and transparent estimating, its not padding. There is no padding correctly and padding incorrectly.
There is a good article that you can refer to: "Stop Padding Your Estimates" by Bob Zimmerman - Check it out. He starts by saying:
"When you pad an estimate, you typically increase your estimated effort/cost due to fear. I call this estimating from a place of weakness. You are afraid of the unexpected event, so hopefully padding it will cover it.
When asked why you think something might take 50% longer or cost more than expectations, it leads to an awkward uncomfortable conversation. And almost always, it creates distrust."
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 17, 2020 2:25 AM
Replying to Keith Novak
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"Padding is basically adding extra time or cost to an estimate because the estimator does not have enough information."
On R&D type projects, PMs often don't know what problems we will face until we find them. There is an old saying that "The Devil is in the details". We guess-timate that we will need a full time PM to handle those problems, even though we don't know the problems yet that we will need to solve later.
You can estimate based on hours to do tasks or the specific individuals who have to do the work and come up with different answers. If you look at a purely project based organization structure where people are dedicated to a project, the advantage is they are not distracted. The cost is that they are not always 100% involved. If you have a project based organization, it is inherently padded to give you that advantage of everyone being 100% dedicated to a project.
The way I look at it, padding is for the unknown unknowns, while contingency is for the known unknowns.
Keith
I am not sure I am in line with everything you said. When we don't have enough information, we normally do analogous estimating or parametric based on historical information and figures. If that's not available, we work with the norms in the area.
On the other hand, when we calculate Management Reserve (Cost of Unknown-Unknowns), we do that based on a percentage that is calculated objectively based on historical data, not just any percentage.
There is a good article that you can refer to: "Stop Padding Your Estimates" by Bob Zimmerman - Check it out. He starts by saying:
"When you pad an estimate, you typically increase your estimated effort/cost due to fear. I call this estimating from a place of weakness. You are afraid of the unexpected event, so hopefully padding it will cover it.
When asked why you think something might take 50% longer or cost more than expectations, it leads to an awkward uncomfortable conversation. And almost always, it creates distrust."
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 17, 2020 6:25 AM
Replying to Eduard Hernandez
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I learned a lot reading all the feedback on this question. Thanks Rami for posting it, it triggered a lot of insightful reactions.
Going back to the original question "Is padding a professional option?" I have to go with NO. I make the assumption that padding is always conscious. If done unconsciously, this would rather fall under the poor estimating abilities.
In addition, padding is a free pass to the student syndrome (Wikipedia = planned procrastination, when, for example, a student will only start to apply themselves to an assignment at the last possible moment before its deadline. This eliminates any potential safety margins and puts the person under stress and pressure).
Eduard
Spot on, I agree, padding is not a professional option and frankly speaking, I consider it unethical as it lack any sort of transparency.
Senior Projects Manager | Field & Marten AssociatesNew Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Mar 17, 2020 11:08 AM
Replying to George Freeman
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@Peter makes a good point, that Padding is normally hidden, and @Keith hit the home-run with the statement that, “padding is for the unknown-unknowns, while contingency is for the known-unknowns.” If we recognize the above facts, then a PM also recognizes that without transparency they are blind to the recipes being used in the estimates.
My point is this: PM’s must accept the fact that human estimates are impacted by emotional factors. So, the question is this, do you ignore this fact, or do you “bring it into the light” and manage to it? My experience is that acknowledgement of emotional factors and discussing and giving these factors validity creates an environment that yields healthier estimates.
Let’s recognize the role that emotions play in all parts of project management, and go out of our way to make these aspects “part of the conversation.” Doing so, creates better outputs and outcomes.
George
Please refer to my response to Keith. I am not sure I agree with the first part of your comment.
As for the emotional factor, yes, it does play a part not only in this but in every other decision. However, and while it might slightly affect the estimate, that doesn't make it padding.
RK Saving Changes...
Oluwatosin OLADETANVice President Finance| FTN Cocoa Processors PlcLagos, Lagos, Nigeria
Padding which I refer to as an unprecedented estimate used to buffer a project should not be an appropriate skill displayed by a professional project manager.
Padding always has an impact on cost, scope, schedule, risk, quality, resources and project output.
There might be instances where positive outputs are generated through the use of padding. however, this does not present a true and fair view of the project performance measures.
Expert Judgement and justifiable quantitative analyses should be utilized in developing contingencies to a project if precision and accuracy is a key factor to be taken into consideration. Saving Changes...