Stanley OranikaDirector Finance & Strategy| Virtus DeusF.C.T, Abuja, Nigeria
Knowing all things. I am a Project Leader. We have a five year plan. How can I know what will happen in five years when I can't tell what will happen in five days? Saving Changes...
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Deepesh RammoorthyICT Project Manager ( PMP®AgilePM®Certified ScrumMaster® (CSM®))| Australian Red Cross Blood ServiceTarneit, Vic, Australia
The concept of Progressive Elaboration comes to the rescue . As you delve deeper into the Plan , you find that the scope , cost, schedule become more clearer. you can only forecast at a high level before you are into the detailed planning phase . hence you always have the -25% to +75% buffer for cost estimations in the initial stage
When you finish developing your WBS , your work packages, do a bottom up estimation , only then you will know what it's going to cost you and how much time it's going to take . Only then can you make use of the forecasting tools , your SPI, CPI your Earned Values and Planned Values, TCPI , BAC etc
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1 reply by Stanley Oranika
Apr 18, 2017 8:29 PM
Stanley Oranika
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You have spoken well Deepesh. Thank you for this sound reassurance that this can be done.
It is true that Progressive elaboration, generally allows a project management team to manage the project to a greater level of detail as it evolves. (It could be quite unnerving, looking to the end of this tunnel from the beginning especially when the merits or demerits of success rest solely upon you).
It involves continuously improving and detailing a plan as more detailed and specific information and more accurate estimates become available. In other words, I may not be able to tell what will happen in five years, but I can sure as hell be close to the expected results.
Thanks once again.
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Stanley OranikaDirector Finance & Strategy| Virtus DeusF.C.T, Abuja, Nigeria
Apr 18, 2017 8:13 PM
Replying to Deepesh Rammoorthy
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The concept of Progressive Elaboration comes to the rescue . As you delve deeper into the Plan , you find that the scope , cost, schedule become more clearer. you can only forecast at a high level before you are into the detailed planning phase . hence you always have the -25% to +75% buffer for cost estimations in the initial stage
When you finish developing your WBS , your work packages, do a bottom up estimation , only then you will know what it's going to cost you and how much time it's going to take . Only then can you make use of the forecasting tools , your SPI, CPI your Earned Values and Planned Values, TCPI , BAC etc
You have spoken well Deepesh. Thank you for this sound reassurance that this can be done.
It is true that Progressive elaboration, generally allows a project management team to manage the project to a greater level of detail as it evolves. (It could be quite unnerving, looking to the end of this tunnel from the beginning especially when the merits or demerits of success rest solely upon you).
It involves continuously improving and detailing a plan as more detailed and specific information and more accurate estimates become available. In other words, I may not be able to tell what will happen in five years, but I can sure as hell be close to the expected results.
Great info Deepesh, well said. Additionally, organizations typically also have 5 year strategic plans. Using that framework to ensure that you're own long range plans align is a good way to appear you know what you're doing. :-) It's true you won't know what will be in 5 years but without a rough framework to guide you, that central line of strategic objectives that you can follow, you potentially could take your projects down the wrong path.
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1 reply by Stanley Oranika
Apr 23, 2017 8:03 PM
Stanley Oranika
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Thank you Liana. Sometimes all we need is a reminder. A rough framework is like the rudder that guides the project along its planned trajectory until close or completion.
Like a waterfall, cascading, (even though called "rolling wave"), the documents and the refinement & detailing of project concept to detailed project / product requirements and plan constitute a continuous iterative process.
“Continuously improving and detailing a plan as more detailed and specific information and more accurate estimates become available as the project progresses, and thereby producing more accurate and complete plans that result from the successive iterations of the planning process”.
You've answered your own question, but are you asking the right question? You already know that some or all of what you put into your plan will be out of date in less than one year. Instead of asking how can you know what will happen in five years, you should be asking what you can know, today.
If you are a project leader, I am assuming that you are talking about a five year plan for a subset of the business. The first thing you need is the five year strategic plan for the business. This will help provide direction. How is the business model changing? Which markets will the business be in? What do you know about the interests of suppliers, competitors, and customers?
Do the areas that you are responsible for have what you need to support the Business' plan? Do you have the ability to change as the plan changes?
These are just a few thoughts from the following article:
Stanley OranikaDirector Finance & Strategy| Virtus DeusF.C.T, Abuja, Nigeria
Apr 19, 2017 7:39 AM
Replying to Liana Underwood
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Great info Deepesh, well said. Additionally, organizations typically also have 5 year strategic plans. Using that framework to ensure that you're own long range plans align is a good way to appear you know what you're doing. :-) It's true you won't know what will be in 5 years but without a rough framework to guide you, that central line of strategic objectives that you can follow, you potentially could take your projects down the wrong path.
Thank you Liana. Sometimes all we need is a reminder. A rough framework is like the rudder that guides the project along its planned trajectory until close or completion.
Like a waterfall, cascading, (even though called "rolling wave"), the documents and the refinement & detailing of project concept to detailed project / product requirements and plan constitute a continuous iterative process.
“Continuously improving and detailing a plan as more detailed and specific information and more accurate estimates become available as the project progresses, and thereby producing more accurate and complete plans that result from the successive iterations of the planning process”. Saving Changes...
Edward DanielsProject Manager| IndependentGlen Burnie, Md, United States
I am not going to say "IT DEPENDS", i find myself reverting to that phrase so often that it is unnerving. However, as most of us are not psychic, i think we should adopt what is in our control. I will say review the organization's "Vision and Mission" statement, how does your unit fit into it.
Armed with that information, it will be easier to start work on the "Strategic, Tactical and Operational" plans of the organization. This should address your concerns as your current 5-year plan i am sure is strategic and it should drive the direction, and decision-making on resource allocation to pursue its goals. Saving Changes...
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