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Topics: Agile, Estimating, Information Technology, PMO
Decision tree "Agile or Waterfall" using project metrics
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JOSEE DUFOUR IT Programme Manager| Worldline Savigny Sur Orge, ., France
Hi,
As an IT software development organisation, we have various clients for which we deliver many projects, sometimes using Agile (Scrum, XP, Kanban...) sometimes using a waterfall methodology, sometimes using hybrid of both models.

When deciding the method to use it often involve gut feeling, client phantasm of what would be best, team’s desire to perform a project in such way or another… not always based on facts indeed.

We sometimes find ourselves having to switch from one model to another or adapt during the course of the project due to (not exhaustive at all!)
1) Initial project assumptions on scope were not quite right
2) Teams not correctly trained
3) Lack of customer involvement
4) Third party suppliers following their own methodology
5) …

I’d like to create (or use an existing) "tool" that would guide teams (project teams but also pre-sales/bid teams) to select the initial project methodology or to provide arguments to pre-sales teams to convince a client adopting “the best” methodology.

I would like to have kind of a decision tree based on project metrics (project duration, team size, number of stakeholders, co-location/multi-site, customer business type, etc.) known at the time of decision.

Does someone know if that exist?
And I would really appreciate any comments or guidance you might provide!

Thanks in advance
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Gopinath Venu San Diego, Ca, USA
Creating a simple Flow chart with all the decision flows will be the first step before going into a excel spreadsheet before actually depicting them and creating a Decision tree tool
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1 reply by JOSEE DUFOUR
Jul 10, 2017 3:30 AM
JOSEE DUFOUR
...
Thanks Gopinath

Your advice is indeed valid, but once the project has started I feel (maybe to adapt the model?). My aim is to help PM select a methodology at project start based on previous projects' metrics, by analogy.
A simplistic example: a previous 3000 man/day successful project was managed in Agile; my project is estimated 3000 m/d, so using Agile will lead to success...
Then adding all known project metrics to the decision tree...
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Mikel Steadman PMO Leader| Development Dimensions International Troy, Nh, USA
I recommend that you don't focus on creating new tools to measure success. Instead, focus on the milestones. Each milestone is by proxy a measurement (metric).

Using PMBOK, complete your initiating and planning process. Draw out the small, medium, and large milestones and give them a duration of 0 Days.
...
1 reply by JOSEE DUFOUR
Jul 10, 2017 3:33 AM
JOSEE DUFOUR
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Thanks Mikel,

I fully agree.
Once you laid down all your milestones (contraints, deliverables, etc...) you get all your metrics.
This is when a decision tree could help, based on previous projects metrics...
This can be done by experienced PMs (because they probably have lots of project know-how), but for junior PMs who have managed 2-3 projects, I feel an organisational asset such as this decision tree could be helpful.
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JOSEE DUFOUR IT Programme Manager| Worldline Savigny Sur Orge, ., France
Jul 08, 2017 5:35 PM
Replying to Gopinath Venu
...
Creating a simple Flow chart with all the decision flows will be the first step before going into a excel spreadsheet before actually depicting them and creating a Decision tree tool
Thanks Gopinath

Your advice is indeed valid, but once the project has started I feel (maybe to adapt the model?). My aim is to help PM select a methodology at project start based on previous projects' metrics, by analogy.
A simplistic example: a previous 3000 man/day successful project was managed in Agile; my project is estimated 3000 m/d, so using Agile will lead to success...
Then adding all known project metrics to the decision tree...
...
1 reply by Zohaib Qadir
Dec 05, 2023 2:55 AM
Zohaib Qadir
...
I second This
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JOSEE DUFOUR IT Programme Manager| Worldline Savigny Sur Orge, ., France
Jul 09, 2017 3:54 PM
Replying to Mikel Steadman
...
I recommend that you don't focus on creating new tools to measure success. Instead, focus on the milestones. Each milestone is by proxy a measurement (metric).

Using PMBOK, complete your initiating and planning process. Draw out the small, medium, and large milestones and give them a duration of 0 Days.
Thanks Mikel,

I fully agree.
Once you laid down all your milestones (contraints, deliverables, etc...) you get all your metrics.
This is when a decision tree could help, based on previous projects metrics...
This can be done by experienced PMs (because they probably have lots of project know-how), but for junior PMs who have managed 2-3 projects, I feel an organisational asset such as this decision tree could be helpful.
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Gary Hamilton Bristol, Tn, USA
Methodology is itself a tool. Which one to be used, really depends on the specific organization, desired outcomes, client expectations, etc.
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Stéphane Parent Self Employed / Semi-retired| Leader Maker Prince Edward Island, Canada
Have you considered using your project reviews to build the decision tree? Another potential source would be project audits.
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Tom Björkholm Sub-Project Leader Software / Agile Product Owner| Actia Nordic AB Linköping, Sweden
The PRINCE2 Agile has a lot of focus on selecting between waterfall and Agile, and also on answering the question "How Agile can this project be?" given the constraints (clients willingness to be involved, the organisations willingness and maturity for Agile, ...)

Have a look at https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solut...2/prince2-agile and https://www.amazon.com/Prince2-Agile-Stati.../dp/0113314671/
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Sergio Luis Conte Helping to create solutions for everyone| Worldwide based Organizations Buenos Aires, Argentina
There is a big mistake here. Agile and Waterfall are not matter of comparision. Agile is a practice that you can apply with any type of life cycle process (waterfall for example). Waterfall is a life cycle process derivated from predictive life cycle models. So, you can not compare them.
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Candi Banghart Program Manager, PMO Consultant| Banghart Consulting, LLC Norwalk, Ia, USA
In reading the thread, I see there are varying perceptions of Agile, Scrum and Waterfall. Here is how I understand it.

Agile - is not a methodology - it is a mindset - a way of thinking that promotes flexibility and collaboration - this can/should be used in every aspect of business, project or no.
Scrum - Originally a development methodology, especially valuable in project management when specifications are less defined and/or subject to frequent changes during the life of the project.
Waterfall - A project management methodology driven by comprehensive planning, most effective when project specifications are clearly defined with few anticipated changes during the life of the project.

When determining the most effective methodology, I agree that PM's would benefit from a standard decision tree tool to support their recommendations.
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Kiron Bondale
Community Champion
Mentor actively supporting PM practitioners in achieving their goals| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Josee -

Most organizations which have gone through or are in the midst of an agile transformation will create a profiling tool which asks a bunch of questions to determine how suitable a given initiative is for an adaptive delivery approach.

The key is to not have the tool provide the decision but rather to support the decision or to identify risks with a given decision.

Some attributes to include are:

- Dedicated key roles (e.g. PO, SM, primary team members)
- Ability to deliver the scope of the project in pieces rather than as a big bang
- Degree of reliance on third parties
- How fixed or flexible are the requirements?

Kiron
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