Triangular or Beta Formula. Which estimation formula to use?

Cost Management Schedule Management Scheduling Using PMI Standards

Dwayne Arnold Buford, Ga, United States

How would you answer this question on the PMP exam only given the following information?

If the most likely duration of an activity is five weeks, the best-case duration is two weeks, and the worst-case duration is 14 weeks, how many weeks is the expected duration of the activity?

a. 4
b. 5
c. 6
d. 7

Trying to understand which PMI prefers when the formula to use is not provided. I missed this question on a practice exam and would like to avoid doing this on the real exam.

There are 2 possible correct answers, 6 if using beta, 7 if using triangular.

Posted: Mar 1, 2018 12:38 PM

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Dinah Young Project Manager / Software Asset Manager| Prince William County Springfield, Va, United States

If it is not specified, use the PERT formula (O + 4(M) + P / 6. So the answer would be c

Posted: Mar 1, 2018 1:11 PM

Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada

Dinah's right - a PERT, beta distribution or weighted average should be the default choice unless they specify the triangular distribution in the body of the question.

Kiron

Posted: Mar 1, 2018 3:32 PM

Dwayne Arnold Buford, Ga, United States

Thanks! Much appreciated!

Posted: Mar 1, 2018 4:29 PM

Vincent Guerard Coach - Trainer - Speaker - Advisor| Freelance Mont-Royal, Quebec, Canada

Dinah's your new RMP in application :-)

For the triangular, if i remember well it use when talking about software project in the context of the PMP exam.

Posted: Mar 1, 2018 5:39 PM

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Triangular or Beta Formula. Which estimation formula to use?

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