The Fox and the Goat: Objectively Analyzing Project Risk

One day, a Fox fell into a deep well and couldn't climb out.

A thirsty Goat soon came to the same well, and seeing the Fox, called down to ask whether the water was good.

Pretending to be happy (and not in despair), the Fox lavishly praised the water, saying how absolutely delicious it tasted, and encouraged the Goat to come down and join him in the well.

The Goat, thinking only of his thirst, stupidly jumped down.

As he drank, the Fox informed him of the difficulty they were both in and suggested a scheme for their common escape.

"If," said the Fox, "you put your forefeet up on the wall and bend your head down, I will run up your back like a ramp and escape, and then I will help you out afterwards."

The Goat agreed and so the Fox leaped upon his back.  Steadying himself with the Goat's horns, he safely reached the mouth of the wall...and took off as fast as he could!

When the Goat complained of the Fox breaking his promise, the Fox turned around and cried out, "You old Goat!  If you had as many brains in your head as you have hairs in your beard, you would never have gone down without making sure there was a way back up.  Only a foolish fellow exposes himself to dangers from which he has no means of escape!"

Aesop ably teaches that understanding and successfully managing risk is critical (even if you're not a goat). 

Although some of the risks faced by everyone doing project based work might be positive opportunities to pursue, the lesson of the Fox and Goat is to "Look Before You Leap."  One of the first steps to evaluating the viability of any project is to determine the project's value based upon pre-determined metrics that include:

1. The project goals
2. The project costs
   
3. The project's alignment to the mission and vision of the organization
   
4. The associated risks and mitigation plans

Establishing pre-determined metrics for every project keeps everyone focused on the objectives the organization has determined are the most important.  Choosing the right projects can make the difference between a successful organization and one that struggles.

The best time to determine the viability of any project is before it's begun.  Evaluating potential projects against pre-determined metrics makes project selection easier, while standardizing the selection process enables organizations to make decisions based upon accurate and reliable information.

Regardless of your work management methodology, the right project management software can make it easier to validate that every project you pursue aligns with strategic and financial goals.  It's a fact of life in today's economic climate that project managers are making do with fewer resources.  They need something to make them more efficient.  The trick is not to do more with less, but to do less with less—in other words do more of the right things. 

Following Aesop's advice to look before you leap, and formalize a project evaluation process that includes risk, alignment, benefit and value, helps decision-makers focus on the right projects.

How does your organization evaluate project risk?  Are there metrics established to keep every project focused on providing the most value for the least amount of risk?