Proven Method

 

My heart cringes whenever I hear someone says ‘Proven Method’. What do we mean when we utter the word ‘Proven’?

“This method is proven, so I am pretty sure it will work.” a colleague once said that to me.

“Do you actually mean ‘tested’ instead?” was my reply to him.

It is very common for us to hear this word in our day-to-day conversations. People try to shun other alternatives by self-proclaiming that their methods are proven. In fact, according to the psychology department at Yale University, the word ‘Proven’ is among the top ten power words that the marketing folks like to use in advertising. This is much expected. Why not? It is easy to remove fear and boost confidence with such a powerful word, isn’t it? Subconsciously, we tend to associate proven method with guaranteed success without giving it a second thought. This makes it convenient for people to abuse the use of the word to gain quick buy-in. However, can anything be proven at all?

In these days, people usually rely on scientific method to help them test hypotheses and confirm theories. Unfortunately, this has been frequently mistaken as an evidence of proof itself. That is why we often hear things like “MSG is scientifically proven to cause obesity” and “50 Scientifically Proven Ways to Be Persuasive” etc. Testing hypotheses and confirming theories do not lead to a proof of anything; they are just telling us that the observations we obtained in repeated experiments corroborate with the explanations we have on the subject we are investigating. In fact, in his foundational work, “The Logic of Scientific Discovery”, Karl Popper argued that science cannot prove anything at all. No, this is not a typo error and there is nothing wrong with your eyes. According to Popper, the very fundamental criterion for a hypothesis, proposition or theory to be considered scientific is that it has to be falsifiable or refutable. In other words, although science cannot help us to prove anything, it can, on the contrary, help us to reject theories and axioms that are currently believed to be true. For instance, if someone claims that his method has never failed; can he then assert that his method is proven to work every time? He might have provided evidence and facts to justify that his method had worked N number of times in different contexts in the past, but from a scientific perspective, he is still not able to prove that his method will never fail unless he has tested it infinitely, which obviously can never happen. Therefore, the only conclusion we may draw is that his method has a very good chance to work in the next time round. In a way, this reminds me of a well-known saying – “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”; just like we cannot prove that “all swans are white” simply because no one has seen a swan that is not white in color.

The interesting part in this whole dilemma is that most people are susceptible to powerful words like ‘Proven Method’. Of course, we love encouraging and positive claims, don’t we? How many times have you found yourself buying a product just because it has the words ‘Scientifically Proven’ printed on its packaging? We succumb too easily and willingly even though, deep inside, we know the problems and the lack of validities of these claims. So, why are people still falling preys to these meaningless word games? Perhaps, it is as a result of laziness, or simply down to the fact that we are naturally inclined to false hopes. We just accept the claims happily, blindly and without doubt. However, something that works for others may not necessarily work for you as there are too many factors that will affect the outcome. Not to forget that there are also various validity issues related to the evidence presented that need further evaluation before you can give any reasonable conclusion. For example, are the evidence measured objectively or subjectively? Is the sample size appropriate? Watch out also for the ‘cum hoc ergo propter hoc’ and ‘post hoc ergo propter hoc’ fallacies. Without scrutinizing the validity of the evidence, there is no way that we can confidently accept any claim. So, next time when you bump into an ignorant, yet bigheaded, vendor that says something like “Don’t worry. Trust us. Our method is proven!” I am quite sure you will know what to ask.

Okay now, after rambling through all these, what am I trying to prove?