Project Management

How will YOU avoid these AI-related cognitive biases?

From the Easy in theory, difficult in practice Blog
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My musings on project management, project portfolio management and change management. I'm a firm believer that a pragmatic approach to organizational change that addresses process & technology, but primarily, people will maximize chances for success. This blog contains articles which I've previously written and published as well as new content.

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How will YOU avoid these AI-related cognitive biases?

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I'm midway through reading Jeremy Kahn's book "Mastering A.I. - A Survival Guide To Our Superpowered Future". While I find the title aspirational (can you truly master anything which is evolving as rapidly as A.I.?), the author has done a good job of providing a balanced assessment of some near and longer term benefits and risks of A.I.

What has resonated with me as it relates to project management are the following three cognitive biases:

  • Automation bias - the inclination to assume that recommendations or information presented by a computer system are more accurate than that produced by a human being, even when we are presented with contradictory evidence.
  • Automation neglect - the tendency to discount and ignore what a computer system is telling us, especially when it runs counter to our beliefs or desires.
  • Automation surprise - the tendency to rely on computer systems and to be confused or surprised when they fail.

I've witnessed the impact of the first two biases multiple times over my career with traditional project management applications.

I've seen senior executives trust the information provided in a Project Portfolio Management solution's sexy dashboard telling them that a particular project was healthy even when the data used to populate that dashboard had undergone significant green-shifting and it was clear to any stakeholder remotely close to the project that it was on fire.

I've seen a sponsor refuse to accept a project manager's recommendation to push back a milestone date based on a Monte Carlo simulation which showed that meeting the desired date had an extremely low probability of success.

I haven't run into automation surprise yet mostly because many project management applications have the unfortunate tendency of failing regularly as the complexity or volume of data or queries increases.

In the near term, we are unlikely to fall prey to such biases when it comes to A.I.-based project management solutions. It is being well drilled into us to employ techniques such as human in the middle to verify that A.I. generated outputs are valid.

But lets fast forward a few years to when the growing pains of the current generation of A.I. tools are but distant memories.

As the reliability of the tools improves, our vigilance diminishes. The likelihood of automation bias affecting project managers, team members, and senior stakeholders will increase, especially as our ability to understand how the A.I. tools are coming to a conclusion gets harder. This will go hand-in-hand with automation surprise. When A.I. tools fail, we might lack the experience or knowledge to understand how to troubleshoot it and if we have become too reliant on the tool doing what we would have done manually in the past, our ability to take over might have atrophied.

The impacts of automation neglect are likely to remain fairly constant. For stakeholders who have a preconceived belief that they don't wish to have challenged, a high confidence contrary answer from a more reliable A.I. is unlikely to sway them. Mandating that users are required to follow the A.I.'s guidance is not the solution as it just increases the potential impacts of automation bias and automation surprise.

So as you contemplate your future as a project manager, what will YOU do to reduce the impacts of these biases as A.I.-enabled project management continues to mature?

Posted on: July 18, 2024 09:41 AM | Permalink

Comments (6)

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Arun Sharma Delhi, DL, India
Nice thoughts shared, thanks for sharing this

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Delia Mamani Ticona Gestion de Proyectos | PROCESSES TO FLY SAC Tacna, Peru
La diferencia entre el deep learning y el machine learning es cómo aprende cada algoritmo.

El deep learning automatiza gran parte de la fase de extracción de características del proceso, lo que elimina parte de la intervención humana manual necesaria y permite el uso de conjuntos de datos más grandes. El deep learning se podría considerar como "machine learning escalable", tal como Lex Fridman señaló en la misma conferencia del MIT mencionada anteriormente.

El machine learning tradicional, o "non-deep", depende más de la intervención humana para aprender. Los expertos humanos determinan la jerarquía de características para comprender las diferencias entre las entradas de datos, lo que por lo general requiere más datos estructurados para aprender.

El "deep" machine learning puede utilizar los conjuntos de datos etiquetados, también conocidos como aprendizaje supervisado, para informar a su algoritmo, pero no requiere necesariamente un conjunto de datos etiquetados. Puede ingerir datos no estructurados en su forma original (como por ejemplo texto o imágenes) y puede determinar automáticamente la jerarquía de características que distinguen diferentes categorías de datos.

A diferencia del machine learning, no requiere intervención humana para procesar datos, lo que permite escalarlo de maneras más interesantes.

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AJ (Ajit) Unnithan Practitioner | Past President | Board Advisor | Adjunct Professor| Open for new projects London, Canada
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Learn more by leveraging tools and baselining with your experience, Do and record the act and Ask peers and experts on your experience.

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Iain Fraser Author, Speaker, Independent Director| Jacobite Consulting Wellington, New Zealand
Thanks for this latest article Kiron.
Your comment "I've seen a sponsor refuse to accept a project manager's recommendation to push back a milestone date based on a Monte Carlo simulation which showed that meeting the desired date had an extremely low probability of success" offers some interesting thoughts:
1. Sponsors should not be dabbling in milestones. These are owned by the project manager and his/her team. Deadlines however are different and sponsors should focus on those as they often have some commercial impact.
2. It's likely in your case example that the sponsor had/has low capability for the role and perhaps also the project manager in that resolution wasn't achieved through conversation between the two.

Great post! It is interesting to see how certain fields embrace AI while others are more hesitant to integrating it.

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Pavan Maddi
Community Champion
Buona Vista, Singapore
It’s great to see such thoughtful content. I always enjoy reading your posts. Thank you Kiron

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