Okay, GTIM Nation, strap in, ‘cuz this is going to be, as promised in the title, the most mind-bending post in this Blog’s history. Ready?
Let’s start with something easy – the game of chess was invented in India in the 7th Century A.D. Known as chaturanga[i], it would experience a few modifications as it made its way through the Middle East, but its basics remained the same. I’ll be returning to this little factoid shortly.
Once, when I was in grade school, someone told me “There are more molecules in a grain of sand than leaves on trees in the world.” It’s not true, but it’s close. There are 3.5 * 1015 molecules in a grain of sand[ii], and 1.28 * 1018 leaves on trees in the World. So. it is fair to say that there are more molecules in two grains of sand than leaves on trees in the world, which is pretty mind-boggling when you think about it, especially when walking along a beach. We start to leave mind-boggling territory and approach mind-bending if we’re walking along a really long beach, like my favorite, the National Seashore at Padre Island. I mean, sand is everywhere, and each pair of grains have more molecules than…
Well, you know.
Next, there are 1024 stars in the known universe[iii] (as of 2024). Of course, each star has far, far more mass than a pair of grains of sand. Our own Sun represents 99.8% of the mass in our Solar System[iv], which is just one of 100B to 400B stars in the Milky Way Galaxy. Based on these estimates, there are between 1078 and 1082 atoms in the known universe[v]. Now, hold on to something, because some serious mind bending is about to occur.
Remember the factoid from the first paragraph, about when chess was invented in the 7th Century? Well, the number of possible chess games is somewhere between 10111 and 10123[vi], meaning that there are more possible chess games than there are atoms in the known universe. Not a beach full of sand, not atoms on the whole Earth, or in the mass of the Solar System, or even the Milky Way. In the known universe. And this is a game invented over a millennium ago, on a board of eight-by-eight squares, with only six unique pieces.
Meanwhile, Back In The Project Management World…
I’m willing to bet that the typical Project has more than six unique participants/ employees/stakeholders, and takes place in an environment that’s more complex than an eight-by-eight square board. And the risk managers (no initial caps) want to maintain that they can provide an even remotely comprehensive analysis on risks, or “…something that might happen. It has a probability or likelihood of happening and if it does there will be a certain impact (may be positive or negative).”[vii] So, if we accept that even a basic Project is likely to be more complex than a game of chess, that means that an accurate and comprehensive list of “risks” facing our basic PM is greater than the number of atoms in the known universe. I do not believe that risk managers (no initial caps) can get close to quantifying these risks in a reliable or usable manner, and that they should stop pretending that they can.
Excuse me for a moment, GTIM Nation – I need to get a tissue for this nose bleed.
I would also like to point out that a similar problem of scalability stands in the way of those who would maintain that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to attain some form of self-awareness, and take over the world. It is estimated that the typical human brain memory capacity is 2.5 petabytes[viii]. By comparison,
Tianhe-2 held the title of the world’s fastest supercomputer from 2013 to 2016. With a memory capacity of around 1.4 petabytes, Tianhe-2 could process enormous amounts of data with remarkable speed and efficiency. This supercomputer was developed by China’s National University of Defense Technology.[ix]
So, this amazing supercomputer has 56% of the memory capacity of a typical human? I mean, even if the software (which, remember, is simply a set of instructions) could be developed that allowed such a “supercomputer” to learn, we’re still talking only 56% of the mental acuity of a typical person. A human with the mental acuity level 44 points below average would be considered “mildly disabled,”[x] but if a machine attains that, we’re supposed to be alternately impressed and afraid for the fate of our civilization?
I’m not buying it, bended mind or no. And you shouldn’t either.
[i] Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chess on September 25, 2024, 19:43 MDT.
[ii] Retrieved from https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/3gdx5u/how_many_molecules_are_in_a_grain_of_sand/ on September 24, 2024, 20:05 MDT.
[iii] Retrieved from https://www.space.com/26078-how-many-stars-are-there.html on September 24, 2024, 20:10 MDT
[iv] Retrieved from https://duckduckgo.com/?q=what+percentage+of+the+solar+system%27s+mass+is+the+sun%3F&t=newext&atb=v257-1&ia=web on September 25, 2024, 19:58 MDT.
[v] Retrieved from https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/stories/which-greater-number-of-atoms-universe-or-number-of-chess-moves on September 24, 2024, 20:21 MDT
[vi] Ibid.
[vii] Retrieved from https://projectmanagers.org/management/risk/what-is-risk-management/ on September 25, 2024, 20:18 MDT.
[viii] Retrieved from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-the-memory-capacity/ on September 24, 2024, 20:37 MDT
[ix] Retrieved from https://robots.net/tech/how-much-ram-does-a-supercomputer-have/ on September 24, 2024, 20”40 MDT
[x] Retrieved from https://www.healthyplace.com/neurodevelopmental-disorders/intellectual-disability/mild-moderate-severe-intellectual-disability-differences on September 25, 2024, 20:39 MDT.
Community Champion
