Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
June 10, 2026 | Live Webinar
The Fairest Metric of All
Categories:
Metrics
Categories: Metrics
| We often rely on a number of different metrics to help create insights into our true project progress. These can range from discrete indicators, such as schedule performance index, to more subjective measures, such as forecasting completion dates based on prior experience on similar projects. I am asked on regular basis which project progress metrics is my favorite. In other words: If I were marooned on an island with a project status report with only one project metric, which one would I pick? After careful consideration (and I hope I have more supplies than just a status report when marooned on an island!), I would likely select the estimate to complete (ETC) metric. Here's why: 1. Task ETC tells me much more. Primarily, ETC serves as a simple measure of remaining effort for a task. However, ETC at the task level can shed light on other areas that provide visibility to project progress. To arrive at a task-level ETC, a project team member must take into consideration not only the remaining effort, but other factors such as resource capabilities, resource availability, dependencies and lead times for any task reviews. The rigor required to arrive at a task-level ETC compels team members to think through many variables that influence remaining effort. As you can see, this exercise tells us a lot more than just a number. 2. ETC reduction closely measures true progress. We like to see task-level ETC going down each week at roughly the same pace of the resource capacity we have working on the task. However, ETC figures might not always be reduced at this expected rate. This situation can arise from a number of factors, all which require further inquiry by the project manager. They can include resources assigned to the task being distracted by other projects, delays on deliverables caused by other teams or a potential increase in the remaining forecasted work. 3. ETC can help find major project issues. There are situations when a project team member cannot arrive at a revised ETC figure. When that occurs, it is a strong indicator that visibility to the necessary inputs required to complete the tasks is not present. This should compel you to escalate the lack of visibility as a project issue and pursue remedies. These could include actions such as seeking guidance from subject matter experts, reassigning the task to a more capable team member and increasing interactions with other project teams for their input. 4. Project ETC does what ETC does best. The movement of task-level ETCs can be aggregated to arrive at an overall project ETC. As with task-level ETCs often not being reduced at a desired rate, comparing prior and current ETCs at the project level can point to larger project issues. In addition, the project ETC actually helps you assess the team's ability to achieve the scheduled completion date. You can compare the project ETC against the future resource availability to see if there is sufficient capacity to achieve the desired completion date. While I like to have a healthy mix of metrics to help gauge project progress, quite often I fall back on ETC as an effective and efficient means of determining project progress as well as the factors that impact this progress. What is your favorite metric? What are other ways to employ ETC in a project? |
Problems, Conflicts and Decisions
Categories:
Stakeholder Management
Categories: Stakeholder Management
| While frequently treated as separate topics, conflict management, problem-solving and decision-making are interrelated and all are focused on achieving the best possible outcome. In an ideal world, there would always be sufficient information and rational maturity to allow you to treat everything as a problem and apply the following problem-solving steps to reach the optimum solution:
The trouble with this process is that problem-solving assumes there is a best answer -- that the information needed to determine the answer is available and that the people involved in the process are acting rationally. These circumstances are relatively rare! Many of the problems that require solving are rooted in emotions. At its center, every conflict has people acting (or reacting) emotionally, and conflict management is focused on reducing the effect of emotions to allow the people in conflict to start acting rationally. Any effective solution to a conflict involves defining the problem, defining a solution space (e.g., a formal mediation), understanding the options, choosing a solution and then implementing the solution. The only difference is how these steps are implemented or imposed. The standard solution options are:
Different conflict-management processes are appropriate at different times. The primary focus is on reducing or managing the level of conflict, but eventually someone has to decide on the solution to the underlying problems. Problem-solving and decision-making are also closely aligned. But the weakness of the problem-solving concept is the assumption that there is sufficient data to make the "right decision." Unfortunately, many decisions are not that simple! The types of decisions you will be required to make range from "simple problems" through to "wicked problems":
The challenge of decision-making is to understand and balance the following:
Ultimately, good decision-making is firstly getting most decisions reasonably correct (luck plays a part) and then continually reviewing the consequences of your decisions to adapt, adjust and correct the suboptimal ones as quickly as possible. Generally, any considered decision made in the appropriate time frame is better than no decision or an unnecessarily delayed one. How do you make your decisions when confronted with a problem? |
6 Obvious Budget Overruns to Avoid
Categories:
Project Planning
Categories: Project Planning
| Nowadays, we rarely hear about projects that finish below a given budget. On the contrary, we hear about projects that need more people, more material resources and more time, which ultimately translates into additional costs that strain the project budget. Although it is clear that project costs can be influenced by external factors beyond the project manager's control, there are at least as many factors that can be controlled from within the project, through appropriate project cost planning. Here are six simple reasons that projects incur cost overruns -- and how to prevent them: 1. Underfinancing. You've probably heard about projects that start with an undersized budget ("We could only allocate that much for this project..."). Such projects will have a high risk of overrunning the initial budget, as well as a high risk of failure. Mitigation: Clarify with the project sponsor from the very beginning how cost overruns, which are very likely to occur, will be handled -- for example, through scope reduction or additional funding. 2. Unrealistic costs estimates. Projects that have costs estimated based on gut feelings or inexperienced personnel are poised to face budget overruns. Biased and inaccurate cost estimates are likely to look unrealistic at a later stage in the project. Mitigation: Break down the work into smaller and more assessable packages. Get help from subject matter experts and experienced personnel when estimating costs. Make the cost estimations comprehensible, by applying different estimation techniques (e.g., three-point estimates, parametric estimating or bottom-up). 3. Underestimated complexity. Many projects nowadays, especially larger ones, have constantly growing complexity. The Berlin Brandenburg Airport and Terminal 1 of Munich Airport, for example, were quite similar in scope, but conducted at different times (25 years apart). Yet Berlin Airport, the more recent project, continues to have considerable budget overruns and delays. One of the reasons: the underestimated complexity concerning the financing of the project, the construction of futuristically designed facilities and newer regulations. Mitigation: Split the project in smaller work packages or phases. Avoid planning everything extensively from the very beginning (the planning alone of the Berlin airport project took 15 years). Plan iteratively -- per work package or phase -- and throughout the project. 4. Extended project schedule. Just because the project schedule is met doesn't necessarily mean the budget will be met as well. On the other hand, it is highly likely that if the project schedule is not met (for example, due to a project time extension), then the project budget will be blown thanks to additional costs that may pile up, since the project team and resources will be needed for longer. Mitigation: Manage the project time and schedule well. Focus especially on the tasks on the critical path, which can have the most impact on both project schedule and costs. If you get asked to extend the project time, explain to your stakeholders that this probably will cost more. Remember the scope-time-budget project triangle. Time is money! 5. Improper buffer planning. If you don't plan (or plan improperly) for a budget buffer, the smallest deviation in scope or schedule will cause an overrun. Mitigation: A budget comprises estimated cost and some contingency. Plan the contingency for unexpected scope changes, unusual weather changes or possible problems with suppliers. Consider a buffer for the costs that cannot be accurately or predictably estimated. Some of the cost estimates will be more accurate than others -- for example, commodity prices will be more predictable than labor costs for a specific service. 6. Improper resource planning. Labor resource costs could be one of the project's biggest expenses. If the project lacks labor resources, a later labor force acquisition will be an unexpected project cost. It can also mean a higher cost since the contracting conditions might not be the same as when initially planning the project. Similarly, resources allocated in excess will mean unnecessary allocated costs, plus unnecessary blocked resources that could have been useful on other projects. Mitigation: First plan the scope, then the required work to be done, and then the related assumptions, dependencies and risks. This will facilitate a better understanding of the work needed to be done and hence will help better assess the right equipment, amount of resources and required skill sets. How do you manage costs on your projects, and which measures do you apply to avoid cost overruns? |
From Lab to Hospital, More Lessons Learned
| In my last post, I discussed my experience at the lab and insurance desk at a hospital. Now I'd like to share the remainder of the story and my analysis on the lessons learned from the hospital stay. A nurse on my first evening in the hospital asked me to sign some papers. As I read the papers, there was a note that said I should not sign if the paperwork was not explained to my satisfaction. I looked at the nurse and said, "No one has explained anything to me. How can I sign?" The nurse looked at me and asked me to hold on for a moment. After some time, a doctor came, explained the process and situations that could arise during the operation. I asked some more questions that he answered, and I signed the papers. Thursday morning, the operation was completed successfully, with follow-up visits by the doctor and nurse. On Friday, the process continued. A group of three senior staffers came in the room, introducing themselves as administrators, and asked if the air conditioning, food and other services were okay. In the evening, the doctor visited again and told me all was well and he would discharge me the following day. He said he would start the process in the morning and requested my patience as the billing and insurance-approval process might take many hours, even perhaps the whole day. On Saturday morning, the administration staff visited again and asked if all was well. At noon, the staff took my signature on the bill and asked me to wait for approval. I sat around and inquired about the approval few times, but no luck. I finally got approval by 7 p.m. -- but by that point I had had dinner at the hospital and afterward moved to my house. Analysis: My experience at the lab and at the hospital were quite opposite. At the lab, the work at hand was minor, but it escalated. However, at the hospital the work at hand was greater and there were more opportunities for issues to arise, yet all went well. I think it was the hospital's well-defined process and disciplined execution that allowed for a smooth experience. Takeaway 1: Words Have No Meaning, Only Action Works At the lab, the manager was trying to defuse a situation by promising and explaining, but actions were missing, and therefore the matter became heated. At the hospital, when I was asked to sign papers without explanation, I raised the concern -- and the nurse and doctor both handled it well by doing what was expected without uttering a single word to the contrary. Takeaway 2: Keep the Ego Under Control The manager at the lab appeared to possess a big ego. First, he did not accept the problem; moreover, he defended his and his team's actions. Second, as he was also a doctor, he could have collected the blood himself but chose not to, perhaps because it wasn't in his job description. He missed the opportunity to win over customers and set an example for his staff. Takeaway 3: Set Expectations If the hospital staff had not set expectations that it would take two hours for approval on the estimated cost and a whole day for approval on the final bill, I would have waited impatiently and probably fought with the staff over the delays. But setting expectations in advance helped them control customer reactions and achieve satisfaction. Takeaway 4: Have a Process, Maintain Discipline and Re-evaluate The most interesting thing I found is that the administration staff visited my room twice and personally asked if all was going well. They were monitoring that discipline was being maintained and if anything in the process needed to be fixed. I think this was critical in ensuring foolproof processes and disciplined staff. What's the top customer service lesson you've learned from an unlikely source? |
Eliminate the Fear Factor
Categories:
Stakeholder Management
Categories: Stakeholder Management
| A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) and most modern management texts emphasize leadership and motivation over directive control. Yet if employee surveys are to be believed, around 70 percent of managers still operate in command-and-control mode. These managers rely on authority, discipline and fear to drive performance. And their team's commitment to the organization and performance suffer accordingly. It's simply futile to tell people they must come up with a bright idea within the next 30 minutes or sanctions will be applied! Fear damages creativity and destroys openness; frightened people cannot work effectively in a knowledge economy. If people are scared of being blamed, the last thing they'll do is pass on accurate information about an issue or a problem. And effective management decision-making depends on the open transmission of bad news. Project controls staff must know what's really happening and need honest estimates of future consequences to provide planning advice. To understand how serious this problem can be, consider that one of the causes of the up to ₤425 million loss so far on the ₤2.4 billion U.K. Universal Credit program -- ultimately credited to "weak management, ineffective control and poor governance" -- was that no one in the development team felt able to highlight their problems to senior management. Fear of being blamed kept the knowledge of the problem from the people who needed to know. Trusting and empowering your team, open communication, leadership and motivation are all closely interlinked and in combination create high-performance teams. This is not a new concept. At the beginning of the 19th century, the Prussian military developed auftragstaktik (or mission command) under the core tenet of bounded initiative. The leader's role is to clearly outline his/her intentions and rationale. Assuming people have proper training and the organizational culture is strong, subordinates can then formulate their own plan of action based on their understanding of the actual situation. What do these ideas mean for project managers?
How do you eliminate the "fear factor" from within your team? |