Voices on Project Management

By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D.

In the ever-evolving landscape of corporate strategic planning, organizations face the perpetual dilemma of choosing between capital spending for growth—and optimizing operations for efficiency. Striking the right balance amidst economic trends and leveraging organizational strengths becomes paramount when navigating through strategic projects. Meeting shareholder and stakeholder needs, while aligning with the organization's mission, presents a constant challenge.

To anticipate potential initiatives, project managers must consider global macroeconomic conditions and CEO outlooks. A preliminary assessment based on the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects and OECD Economic Outlook reports for 2024 reveals a projected global economic growth slowdown from 2.7% to 2.4%. This trend suggests a delicate balance between slow growth and regional divergences. Key considerations include:

• Global inflation showing signs of easing from 5.7% to a projected 3.9%
• Slowed global investment trends due to uncertainties, debt burdens and interest rates
• Fading global trade growth attributed to shifting consumer expenditure, geopolitical tensions, supply chain troubles, pandemic effects and protectionist policies
• Notable regional examples include the United States expecting a GDP drop from 2.5% to 1.4%, China experiencing a modest slowdown from 5.3% to 4.7%, Europe and Japan projecting growth rates of 1.2%, and Africa's growth expected to slightly increase from 3.3% to 3.5%

Examining the corporate landscape, a survey of 167 CEOs in December 2023 indicated a confidence index of 6.3 out of 10 for the 2024 economy—the highest of the year. The CEO upsurge assumes inflation is under control, the Fed may not raise interest rates and instead reverse rates, setting up a new cycle of growth. Furthering the CEO agenda, McKinsey & Co. identified eight CEO 2024 priorities:

• Innovating with GEN AI to dominate the future
• Outcompeting with technology to drive value
• Driving energy transition for net zero, decarbonization, and scaling green businesses
• Cultivating institutional capability for competitive advantage
• Building out middle managers
• Positioning for success amidst geopolitical risks
• Developing growth strategies for continued outperformance
• Considering the broader macroeconomic wealth picture for identifying growth

As project managers, navigating the uncertainty of economic shifts necessitates staying vigilant. The year may bring variables and predictions that impact the execution probability of strategic projects. Shifting between growth plans and efficiency drivers demands different preparation. To stay prepared, consider the following:

• Regularly monitor global economic indicators and CEO outlooks
• Foster agility within the team to adapt to changing priorities
• Develop scenario plans that account for potential economic shifts
• Collaborate with key stakeholders to gather real-time insights
• Continuously reassess project priorities based on evolving economic conditions

In an environment of perpetual change, proactive monitoring, adaptability and strategic collaboration will be key to successfully steering projects through the dynamic economic landscape.

How else can you stay prepared as the demands shift on you and your team?

References

1. JP Morgan: Economic Trends
2. Economic outlook: A mild slowdown in 2024 and slightly improved growth in 2025
3. UN: World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024
4. McKinsey: What matters most? Eight CEO priorities for 2024
5. CEOs Gain Confidence About 2024 On Hopes Of Lower Rates

By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D.

One of the impacts artificial intelligence has had is prompting a reconstitution of project management. Here I look to leading industry experts to explore the benefits to project management systems due to matured AI software; and the maturity of the project manager as a data- and fact-driven champion of business outcomes and innovation. This combination of advanced project systems performance and leadership competence will significantly transform project success rates.

As a background to the current state of project management, HBR states that $48 trillion is invested annually in projects. The Standish Group notes that only 35% of projects are successful, and 65% of projects waste resources and have unrealized benefits.

Additionally, Proofhub attributes project failure to firms that lack project management delivery systems; they are prone to miss targets and overspend. It noted that 67% of projects fail because project management is undervalued; 44% of all managers do not believe in the importance of project management software; and 46% of firms place a high priority on project management. Also noted: Utilizing a good software program reduces failure by 10%, and scope creep by 17%.

More specifically, a PMI Learning Library article noted some reasons for project failure:

1. Unclear goals and objectives
2. Lack of resource planning
3. Poor communication across the organization
4. Inadequate stakeholder management
5. Poorly defined project scope
6. Inaccurate cost and time estimates
7. Inadequate risk management
8. Inexperienced project managers
9. Unrealistic expectations

Maturing Systems
An HBR article suggests that poor project success rates are due to a low level of available mature systems. Many firms continue to rely on spreadsheets, slides and other applications that haven’t matured current practices. While the current tools are adequate in measuring project performance, they do not allow for the development of intelligent automation and collaboration across the portfolio of projects. The opportunity to apply AI to project management could improve the success ratio by a quantifiable 25%, or trillions of dollars of newly realized benefits for firms and society.

Gartner Inc. analysts predict that by 2030, AI software—driven by conversational AI, machine learning and robotic process automation for gathering data, reporting and tracking—will eliminate 80% of all project management office tasks. Gartner identifies project management disruption in six aspects:

1. Better selection and prioritization
2. Support for the project management office
3. Improved, faster project definition, planning and reporting
4. Virtual project assistants
5. Advanced testing systems and software
6. A new role for the project manager

PwC envisions AI-enabled project management software will improve a project leader’s decision-making process across the following five key areas crucial to success:

1. Business insights improvements by filtering better data for relevant knowledge
2. Risk management assessing scenarios that offer mitigation strategies
3. Human capital in allocating resources more appropriately to meet the business priorities
4. Integrating various technologies and specialists to improve project outcomes
5. Active assistance by enhancing administrative tasks and stakeholder progress communications

PwC posits the advancements in project management software are an opportunity for firms and leaders that are most ready to take advantage of this disruption and reap the rewards.

PM Competence
PMI’s Project Manager Competency Development (PMCD) Framework provides an assessment and development of a project manager’s competence. It is based on the premise that competencies have a direct effect on performance. A project manager’s competence can be categorized in terms of project management knowledge, project management performance and their accomplishments, and personal competency in performing the project activities and personality characteristics. This combination is the stated success criteria for a competent project manager.

AI’s capability to assess disparate sources of big data to obtain actionable insights arms project managers with improved decision-making competence throughout the project lifecycle. However, a challenge noted by PwC’s recent analysis of OECD data (covering 200,000 jobs in 29 countries) warns that AI’s job displacement effect will automate 30% of jobs involving administrative manual tasks by the mid-2030s. This indicates a clear need to upskill project manager competence in order to thrive in the future.

In order to succeed, a firm’s culture of adaptability and lifelong learning is a cornerstone for shifting today’s project management roles into the future. They will need to expand competence in soft skills, business and management skills, technical and digital skills—all working in concert with each other.

IAPM states project managers will face fundamental changes over the next 10 years with job descriptions and roles. It suggests AI will make logical analysis and decisions, allowing the PM to focus their main area of responsibility on creativity, resolving conflicts, and innovation.

Lastly, with any transformation or disruption, one must consider the actions and obstacles—whether financial, management support, or workforce ability—to embrace and enact change. Here are some key considerations to reflect on:

1. Does your firm value project management?
2. Is your firm a quick adopter of intelligence-based project software?
3. Will your firm invest in your competence development?

Post your thoughts in the comments!

References

1. PMI: Project Management Competency Development Framework—Second Edition
2. PMI: Why do projects really fail?
3. HBR: How AI Will Transform Project Management
4. Gartner Says 80 Percent of Today’s Project Management Tasks Will Be Eliminated by 2030 as Artificial Intelligence Takes Over
5. IPAM: Will project managers soon be replaced by AI?
6. PWC: A Virtual Partnership? How Artificial Intelligence will disrupt Project Management and change the role of Project Managers
7. Proofhub: Top 10 Reasons Why Projects Fail (And How to Solve Them)

By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D.

There is a dramatic increase in the strategies corporations implement to meet the needs of their stakeholders. Driving value from all parts of an organization and its functions may seem like repetitive exercises—and even feel more like a medieval gauntlet with only a few successful programs. HBR (2021) wrote that by 2027, about 88 million people will be working in project management—with economic activity reaching $20 trillion USD. Also noted: Only 35% of projects are successful, leaving immense waste of resources.

There are many reasons projects fail. HBR (2021) states of the 70% of failed projects, and after exhaustive root-cause analysis across all industries, one can identify common themes such as undervaluing project management skills and methods, and poor performance. Yet organizations that apply project management methods recognized their performance had a 2.5 more times chance to be successful, and organizations can waste 28 times less resources. As such, when applied, the implementation of PM methods works.

Yet in a world filled with a variety of project taxonomies, many organizational boards are now contemplating the need to implement environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) programs. Forbes states the benefits of ESG and CSR initiatives include:

1. Advancing organizational culture, empowering staff to do social good, and welcoming diversity.
2. Encouraging partners and investors who are interested in long-run strategy to manage risks and opportunities by emphasizing the organization’s ethics.
3. Raising an organization’s staff confidence and productivity, creating a workplace that achieves the business mission.

Therefore, to ensure success for ESG and CSR programs, an organization’s top leaders need to prioritize and align across all the organization’s businesses. Leaders can use the balanced scorecard to achieve this alignment, and can extend its use across the entire project portfolio.

This theory was developed by Kaplan and Norton, which state the balanced scorecard method converts the organization’s strategy into performance objectives, measures, targets and initiatives. Linking the concept of cause and effect, the balanced scorecard covers four perspectives:

1. Customer: How do customers see us?
2. Internal: What must we excel at?
3. Innovation and learning: Can we continue to improve and create value?
4. Financial: How do we look to shareholders?

Marr (N.B.) reported over 50% of companies have used this approach in the United States, the United Kingdom, Northern Europe and Japan. One clear benefit has been to align the organization’s structure to achieve its strategic goals.

In conclusion, applying project management methods and aligning an organization’s performance through the balanced scorecard can unlock ESG and CSR benefits that can supercharge a company’s efforts to achieve its mission.

References

1. HBR: The Project Economy Has Arrived
2. HBR: The Balanced Scorecard—Measures that Drive Performance
3. Project Management Statistics: Trends and Common Mistakes in 2023
4. Forbes: Three Reasons Why CSR And ESG Matter to Businesses
5. Balanced Scorecard: How Many Companies Use This To

When facing a challenge in a project or during the evolution of your product, it's natural to look for quick solutions that can help you move forward. However, this approach can lead to "patching" the symptoms rather than addressing the root cause of the problem. 

In the context of agile software development, a good example of patching that I see trending is relying too much on the Scrum Master as a "Swiss army knife," where any problem is fixed by expecting them to compensate in some way.

While it's true that the Scrum Master is a versatile member of the team, it's important to remember that their primary responsibility is to facilitate the Scrum framework, not to be a jack-of-all-trades.

Instead of treating the Scrum Master as a catch-all role, it's crucial to find the core problem that's causing the challenge and address it directly. This may require some investigation, analysis and collaboration among the team members, but the payoff can be significant. By identifying the root cause, you can avoid repeating the same issue in the future, improve the overall quality of the product, and increase the team's productivity and morale.

So, how can you find the core problem when facing a challenge? Here are some steps that can help:

1. Define the problem. Start by clarifying what exactly the challenge is that you're facing. Is it a technical issue, a communication problem, a misalignment of expectations or something else? Write down a clear and concise description of the problem that everyone can understand.

2. Collect data. Gather information about the problem by talking to stakeholders, reviewing documentation, analyzing metrics or conducting user research. The goal is to get a holistic view of the problem, its impact and its potential causes.

3. Analyze the data. Once you have collected the data, you need to make sense of it. Look for patterns, trends and insights that can help you identify the root cause. This may require some critical thinking, brainstorming or hypothesis testing.

4. Validate the hypothesis. Once you have a working theory of what's causing the problem, test it by gathering more evidence, conducting experiments or soliciting feedback from the team. The goal is to confirm or refute your hypothesis and refine your understanding of the problem.

5. Address the root cause. Finally, once you have identified the core problem, take action to address it directly. This may involve implementing a new process, fixing a bug, improving communication or changing the team's dynamics.

Conclusion
By following these steps, you can avoid the temptation to patch the symptoms and instead focus on solving the core problem. This not only benefits the current project/product, but also builds a culture of continuous improvement and learning that can help the team succeed in the long run. 

So, the next time you face a challenge, resist the urge to rely on the Scrum Master as a Swiss army knife and instead use their expertise to facilitate the process of finding the root cause.

How do you deal with challenges?

By Peter Tarhanidis, Ph.D.

Never has the new year’s greeting “wishing you health, wealth, and prosperity” rang truer. Over the last several years, we have all lived through uncertainty. This year, we hoped to lurch out of a post-pandemic crisis into a new normal with a vibrant outlook…yet quickly staggered into a slipping economic uncertainty that sharply cut short the prospects of our envisioned “normal” state.

JP Morgan’s 2023 economic outlook for the United States indicates a slowing growth rate, monetary tightening, and curbing inflation, while healthy consumer and business balance sheets could offer some growth prospects. The Conference Board observes longer-term geopolitical, environmental, labor, and inflation risks beyond 2023.

Many organizations will ebb and flow within this shifting cycle. Organizations that are well-positioned will have a better chance to adapt to the external challenges of shifting global markets to meet customer needs. They must simultaneously find the agility necessary to mitigate the internal challenges of a reduced workforce, increasing costs for goods and services, climbing interest rates, and the overall health of a company’s finances and workforce. This will challenge organizations to stay focused and chart a path forward.

This is reminiscent of Sir Ernest Shackleton and his crew of the Endurance, which embarked on a daring expedition from the UK to Antarctica and the South Pole in 1914. Along the voyage, the crew became stranded for over two years. The Endurance became trapped in the ice while the crew waited 10 months for spring and the warm weather to thaw them out—only to be horrified by shifting ice that damaged the ship’s frame, finally sinking her.

To survive, Shackleton mounted three lifeboats to traverse 800 miles of open sea to reach help on South Georgia Island—then return to the makeshift camp to rescue all 27 men who suffered frigid conditions, hunger, chaotic seas, and mental distress. This journey is one of the greatest examples of leadership, grit, and epic survival.

In order not to succumb to the current economic and global undertones, leaders must:

1. Assess their strategies continuously to re-align with stakeholder needs
2. Rely on project leaders who are best positioned to navigate this process

Project leaders have always been confronted with the likelihood of project failure—yet they have developed a track record of delivering results. Project leaders are adept at converting strategies into clear tactics, ensuring team and stakeholder alignment, and executing projects to achieve the goals. At the core of the project leader’s success are the character attributes of authenticity, trust, resilience, focus, and courage.

What else can you do to support your teams and move forward during this year’s challenges?