Statistical PERT™ (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet for Revenue Forecasting
UPDATED for 2020! To be used in conjunction with Evaluating Benefits: Getting Statistical (Part 2) . This template evaluates uncertain revenue. Probabilities describe the area under the curve to the right of the planning estimate, answering the question, "What is the probability of earning at least $X or more revenue?" To use this template, enter 3-point, revenue estimates under the Pessimistic, Most Likely and Optimistic columns. Choose a confidence value for the Most Likely estimate under the Most Likely Confidence column. Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels: Show/hide columns O through Z. Choose whether you want unskewed (it uses the mode) or skewed (it uses the estimated mean).
Version 4.3 includes:
- new statistics to the Monte Carlo simulation worksheet
- burn-up chart; it now permits adding "Team Capacity" so the forecast lines adjust when a team has diminished capacity to work