Project Management

Statistical PERT™ (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet for Revenue Forecasting

By PMI South Florida Chapter +1

UPDATED for 2021! To be used in conjunction with Evaluating Benefits: Getting Statistical (Part 2). This template evaluates uncertain revenue. Probabilities describe the area under the curve to the right of the planning estimate, answering the question, "What is the probability of earning at least $X or more revenue?" To use this template, enter 3-point, revenue estimates under the Pessimistic, Most Likely and Optimistic columns. Choose a confidence value for the Most Likely estimate under the Most Likely Confidence column. Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels: Show/hide columns O through Z. Choose whether you want unskewed (it uses the mode) or skewed (it uses the estimated mean).

Version 5 includes:

  • SPERT Normal Scheduler, which lets project managers create a probabilistic schedule by estimating their project's critical path at either the task or activity level
  • SPERT Normal - CFD Charts, which creates a visual picture of an agile (or any other) team's workflow process using a dynamically-drawn, cumulative flow diagram (CFD). CFDs are popular among some agile teams who use a Kanban board and are interested in their flow.

Version 4 included these new features:

  • New Monte Carlo simulation worksheet simulates a single, random variable 10,000 times, then charts the results using a dynamic histogram
  • New agile burn-up chart visually forecasts three probabilistic agile delivery dates using historical data
  • Specify an explicit standard deviation for any uncertainty on any worksheet

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