Statistical PERT® (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet for Task Duration Forecasting

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Topics: Estimating, Risk Management

Format: Evaluation Assessment / Evaluation Form

Update for 2023! This spreadsheet has worksheets showing the results of a Monte Carlo simulation on a sample project's work effort hours, and a companion estimate using Statistical PERT.  This way, you can see how you can use just the built-in functions of Microsoft Excel to do probabilistic, risk-based estimation. Textbox comments have been added to the worksheets to aid in understanding. Use this in conjunction with the article Risk Management Starts Sooner Than You Think.

Version 5 includes:

• SPERT Normal Scheduler, which lets project managers create a probabilistic schedule by estimating their project's critical path at either the task or activity level
• SPERT Normal - CFD Charts, which creates a visual picture of an agile (or any other) team's workflow process using a dynamically-drawn, cumulative flow diagram (CFD). CFDs are popular among some agile teams who use a Kanban board and are interested in their flow.
• NEW for 2023: 2023 federal holidays and other time-off dates plus other minor tweaks

Version 4 included these new features:

• New Monte Carlo simulation worksheet simulates a single, random variable 10,000 times, then charts the results using a dynamic histogram
• New agile burn-up chart visually forecasts three probabilistic agile delivery dates using historical data
• Specify an explicit standard deviation for any uncertainty on any worksheet

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