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Is good risk management more like driving than maintaining a risk register?

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Rohit Mathew VP| Triple A Solutions Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

If you have ever driven in an Indian city during rush hour, you may already understand proactive risk management better than you realize.

An experienced driver does not focus only on the vehicle immediately ahead. They notice a two-wheeler entering the edge of their vision, a pedestrian whose posture suggests they may step onto the road, or an autorickshaw changing its angle before beginning to cross a lane.

The driver does not wait for the hazard to become an incident. They make a small adjustment while there is still space to respond.

That is the distinction I sometimes find missing in project risk management.

A risk register is valuable. It records known risks, ownership and agreed responses. But it can also create a false sense of completeness. By the time a risk appears on the register, someone has already completed the most important first step: noticing it.

The risks that cause serious disruption often begin as weak human or operational signals. A vendor repeatedly postpones routine conversations. A stakeholder agrees in the meeting but stops following through. Several minor deviations appear unrelated until someone recognizes the pattern.

Good project leaders keep scanning beyond the documented risks. They ask what is changing, what the current pattern may become and whether the team still has enough room to respond.

What weak signal has helped you identify a project risk before it became an issue?

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Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
A very relevant perspective.
I would add one distinction: noticing a weak signal is not yet diagnosing a risk.
Weak signals are inherently ambiguous.
They may indicate an emerging threat, an existing weakness becoming visible, or simply noise.

The discipline is therefore to remain sensitive to early signals without overreacting to them.
That means looking for patterns, testing plausible explanations, seeking corroborating evidence and responding proportionately while meaningful options still exist.

I would also see risk sensing as a distributed capability rather than something expected from the project manager alone.
Team members, stakeholders, suppliers and operational functions often observe different parts of the system.
The PM can help create the conditions for those signals to surface, connect them across boundaries and ensure that material concerns receive attention.

Perhaps proactive risk management begins before the risk register, but its real value lies in turning distributed signals into timely understanding and action before uncertainty becomes an issue with fewer options left.
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Rohit -

The challenge with focusing purely on what's in the risk register is that represents known-unknowns. As the complexity of the average meaningful project increases, the unknown-unknowns usually pose much more of a threat.

The analogy of driving in India is apt... a risk register containing the usual driving risks known to folks who have never driven there won't account for such unknown-unknowns as a stray animal (e.g. cow, dog) wandering directly into traffic...

Kiron

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