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Is good risk management more like driving than maintaining a risk register?

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Rohit Mathew VP| Triple A Solutions Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

If you have ever driven in an Indian city during rush hour, you may already understand proactive risk management better than you realize.

An experienced driver does not focus only on the vehicle immediately ahead. They notice a two-wheeler entering the edge of their vision, a pedestrian whose posture suggests they may step onto the road, or an autorickshaw changing its angle before beginning to cross a lane.

The driver does not wait for the hazard to become an incident. They make a small adjustment while there is still space to respond.

That is the distinction I sometimes find missing in project risk management.

A risk register is valuable. It records known risks, ownership and agreed responses. But it can also create a false sense of completeness. By the time a risk appears on the register, someone has already completed the most important first step: noticing it.

The risks that cause serious disruption often begin as weak human or operational signals. A vendor repeatedly postpones routine conversations. A stakeholder agrees in the meeting but stops following through. Several minor deviations appear unrelated until someone recognizes the pattern.

Good project leaders keep scanning beyond the documented risks. They ask what is changing, what the current pattern may become and whether the team still has enough room to respond.

What weak signal has helped you identify a project risk before it became an issue?

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Luis Branco CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
A very relevant perspective.
I would add one distinction: noticing a weak signal is not yet diagnosing a risk.
Weak signals are inherently ambiguous.
They may indicate an emerging threat, an existing weakness becoming visible, or simply noise.

The discipline is therefore to remain sensitive to early signals without overreacting to them.
That means looking for patterns, testing plausible explanations, seeking corroborating evidence and responding proportionately while meaningful options still exist.

I would also see risk sensing as a distributed capability rather than something expected from the project manager alone.
Team members, stakeholders, suppliers and operational functions often observe different parts of the system.
The PM can help create the conditions for those signals to surface, connect them across boundaries and ensure that material concerns receive attention.

Perhaps proactive risk management begins before the risk register, but its real value lies in turning distributed signals into timely understanding and action before uncertainty becomes an issue with fewer options left.
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Kiron Bondale Retired | Mentor| Retired Welland, Ontario, Canada
Rohit -

The challenge with focusing purely on what's in the risk register is that represents known-unknowns. As the complexity of the average meaningful project increases, the unknown-unknowns usually pose much more of a threat.

The analogy of driving in India is apt... a risk register containing the usual driving risks known to folks who have never driven there won't account for such unknown-unknowns as a stray animal (e.g. cow, dog) wandering directly into traffic...

Kiron
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Keith Novak Tukwila, Wa, United States

As an armature sports car racer, I look at the analogy a bit differently. You need to look at risk management both from the perspective of the driver, and the crew chief.

There are similar known unknowns to deal with as the chaotic traffic in India. I'm watching for erratic drivers, weather changes, debris, sometimes wildlife, official waving warning flags, critical gauges and trouble lights, etc. I'm constantly scanning for threats as far down the track as possible, and also in front of me on the literal dashboard, trying to notice if things are stable or changing. I don't need to write all those kinds of risks in the register though. It becomes pointless to write down every possible scenario when my only handling option is deal with it if it happens

I do however have a whole list of risks that I am actively managing far before I get on the track. I have lots of driver training to perform my job and manage when things go bad. My car is full of safety equipment, and I''m wearing a special protective suit and helmet. A safety inspector has reviewed my car for any issues, and I spent hours beforehand checking all critical systems myself. I re-check certain things immediately after I come in off the track. If I'm involved in an on-track incident, the stewards note that I require a new inspection after repairs are complete. I have a medical clearance from a doctor, and I prepare my body for extended periods of exertion in a 60*C enclosure. I practiced escaping from fires and out of upside down cars. Many of those are written down in some form, and I check my risk register frequently because handling those types of risks often takes lengthy preparation. If I forget to bring something, or break something at the track, finding replacements on short flow may not be possible and the risk is that I spent a lot of money but didn't get to race.. There's a saying that comes in many versions that poor planning produces poor performance.

By reviewing my risk resister regularly, I can be more confident that I won't have to worry about them on the track while I'm also managing the more random risks with little time to react. I'm not distracted by wondering if I torqued all 4 wheels and put fuel in the car. The crew chief checked all those systemic risks.before I got in the car, down to checking my suit is zipped and my helmet buckled..

One weak signal that I can often spot when risks are becoming issues is reading the mood of the room. When people are generally happy during meetings, talking about family, pets, or car racing, then emotional health is better than if people seem stressed and getting sick. That's a sign of burnout, and it might be wise to ease up on the gas pedal for a while to let people recover.That's why prefer in-person or phone meetings over just text and chats. It's easier to read the room. Crew chiefs do the same thing on the track, keeping tabs on the driver over a radio, observing for signs of stress, like after a near miss, and try to talk the driver down, freeing up their thinking for managing the car.

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Lissette Indhira Pimentel Sosa
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Program Manager| HARPER SRL Santo Domingo / Distrito Nacional, Dominican Republic
One signal is when a stakeholder who was normally engaged starts missing meetings, delaying responses, or avoiding decisions. Any one of those things may not mean much, but when the pattern continues, I start paying closer attention.
Sometimes the change in behavior tells you there is a problem before it appears in any project report.

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