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Topic Teasers Vol. 185: What Should I Do About Fluctuating Costs?

by Barbee Davis, MA, PHR, PMP, PMI-ACP, PMI-PBA

Question: I know I’m expected to create and present a realistic cost estimate for my projects, since my company may be signing a contract with an outside client to whom the end result must be delivered at a pre-set price. But with today’s ever-shifting prices, how can a PM know what the prices will be when the supplies to create the end product are actually purchased? Do we just add a percentage of the cost of the project as a safety net.

Resilience, Leadership, and Compassion in Crisis

Sep 5, 2025 11:00 AM EDT (UTC-4)
PREMIUM webinar

In Leading Through Crisis: Lessons in Resilience, Empathy, and Impact, Kevin McGowan shares how he led a Canadian government initiative to combat the opioid crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic while navigating the personal loss of his mother. By focusing on empathy, iterative growth, and building resilient teams, he turned crisis into an opportunity for both personal and professional growth.

Resilience, Leadership, and Compassion in Crisis

by Kevin McGowan
September 05, 2025 | 60:23 | Views: 5,331 | PDUs: 1.00 | Rating: 4.53 / 5

In Leading Through Crisis: Lessons in Resilience, Empathy, and Impact, Kevin McGowan shares how he led a Canadian government initiative to combat the opioid crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic while navigating the personal loss of his mother. By focusing on empathy, iterative growth, and building resilient teams, he turned crisis into an opportunity for both personal and professional growth.

Should We Eliminate Estimates?

by Andy Jordan

Anyone who has been part of agile estimating knows there can be a tendency to increase the number of story points “just in case." Too often, the baseline to measure work against is wildly inaccurate. Let's ponder the shift toward no estimates.

Is AI Good for Story Point Estimation?

by Andy Jordan

An organization is looking into AI to streamline story point estimation for its agile work. The leadership believe that AI is going to simplify the process, increase productivity and improve accountability. But its agile teams are pushing back.

Statistical PERT™ (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet

deliverable
by William Davis

Updated for 2023! Statistical PERT is an estimation technique that project professionals use to align expectations and make better business decisions. Use Statistical PERT to create a probabilistic forecast for many project uncertainties, such as how much your project will cost, or when you might deploy the next agile release. Statistical PERT easily models a wide variety of uncertainties using built-in statistical functions inside Microsoft Excel, making estimation easy to do—even for people who don't like statistics.

Statistical PERT® (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet for Task Duration Forecasting

PREMIUM deliverable
by William Davis

UPDATED for 2023! This spreadsheet has worksheets showing the results of a Monte Carlo simulation on a sample project's work effort hours, and a companion estimate using Statistical PERT. This way, you can see how you can use just the built-in functions of Microsoft Excel to do probabilistic, risk-based estimation. Textbox comments have been added to the worksheets to aid in understanding. Use this in conjunction with the article Risk Management Starts Sooner Than You Think.

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