Software-Simplistic Prediction Model for Bug Forecasting

PMI Phoenix Chapter

Steve Poessnecker has worked in the technology sector for more than 25 years in documentation, training, business operations, business analysis, business relationships and project management. He has a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering with additional emphasis on speech communication and mathematics. He currently is a senior business relationship manager, with emphasis on enterprise process and system projects.

Abstract
Project bugs and the forecasting of progress can be complex. A simplistic method has been created using an Excel spreadsheet to gauge the progress of the testing and resolution teams. This methodology can be used by a project manager (in absence of a quality analyst) in conjunction with test-estimation techniques to help determine the completion date for testing efforts.

Problem
There needs to be a way to determine the progress of the bugs being raised, comparing that to the progress of the bug resolution, and eventually determining the “end date” of the bug resolution. The end date estimation can be exacerbated because tickets are being raised by one group that may be relatively disconnected from the group that is performing the resolutions. In essence, the project manager is looking at the performance of the two groups and determining how those individual efforts will intersect and when those efforts drive to zero bugs.

Background
During the testing process, testers will be going through their test scripts. Those test scripts should have been developed based on the requirements traceability matrix and the business process flows that were created during the analysis and design phases. It is during the testing process that the testers will then find bugs. These bugs can be either systematic or process related. In either instance, these bugs need to…

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