Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
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| Chess (noun) / a game of planning, strategy, and tactics. | ||
| I am deviating from my normal blog format and cartoon and I hope you find this post enjoyable. Recently, I had the opportunity to work with a PPM expert in the Middle East. When we stumbled upon our common passion for the game of chess, we decided to play a correspondent game. You might be thinking, what does the game of chess have to do with project management? To me, there are actually many similarities between project management and the game of chess. For one, both involve planning, strategy, and tactics. And for another, those involved in project management or playing a game of chess can often benefit by just a little bit of process and risk management. Consider the following chess match. I played White. | ||
| The Opening: As white, I have always enjoyed closed positioned games verses open positioned games. When I played tournament chess years ago, I found that if I played an open game with superior players, the game would become overly complex and I would typically lose or at best draw. And, when I played a closed game with these same superior players, the play and opportunities would be much more balanced and sometimes even a little bit boring which often resulted in slight positional and tempo mistakes that I could use to get a draw and sometimes even win. So consider my dread after my very first move when my opponent countered my e2-e4 king pawn opening with the Sicilian Defense, a defense that offers black many aggressive and open positioned lines of counter attack. |  |
Position after: 1. e2-e4 c7-c5 |
| Variation Selection: In response to the Sicilian Defense, I have found numerous ways, too many to keep track of, to lose. Almost always, black quickly transforms a friendly game into a no-hold bars slug fest. Often, by the time I realize the mischief that black is up to, the game is over and I have lost to the Sicilian once again. The Moscow Variation is the one variation that I have had some degree of success, or should I say survival, with and that is what I chose as a response as shown in this board position. |  |
Position after: 2. g1-f3 d7-d6 |
| Here come black's pawns: Black is already advancing his pawns opening up counterplay on the queenside with b7-b5. So now, in addition to finding a way to control the center, develop my pieces, and form my attack, I have to be mindful of black's encroachment upon my queenside territory. I can just envision a king side castle and flanking attack on the open queenside files by black's rooks. Here we go again, I am thinking. |  |
Position after: 4. b5-d7 d8-d7 |
| And here come more of black's pawns: See what I mean. I can't ignore the fact that black's wall of pawns is advancing upon me. Like managing a complex project, I need to eliminate risks and keep the project on track. In this case the project is to complete the development of all of my pieces, establish control of the center, and to exploit black's backward d6 pawn. |  |
Position after: 6. d1-e2 e7-e5 |
| First goal accomplished. At this point in the game, I have accomplished my first goal of developing all of my pieces. I don't quite have control of the center, but I am following the process and getting there. I have resisted black's attempts to open the game up, but his advancing pawn formation poses many threats. |  |
Position afer: 8. d2-d4 c5-c4 |
| The counter attack. This is what I am talking about when I say I hate the Sicilian Defense. As white, I have been a cordial gentleman. All of my pieces are still on my side of the board. I am not picking a fight with black. I am just going about my business, developing my pieces, maintaining a presence in the center of the board. Black is the one picking the fight, advancing pawns, and attacking me - not to mention opening up the play for his queen and rook to descend upon my king. And all the while, my pieces are somewhat on the other side of the board. I am thinking that I have an advantage in both tempo and development, yet black is the one setting sights on ending the game. This is what black does in the Sicilian. |  |
Position after: 12. b2-b3 g7-g5 |
| Eliminating risks. At this point in the game, all I am thinking about is eliminating risks. Black gave up a few pawns in exchange for developing his counter attack and tactical options. If those can be neutralized, my prospects for the end game look promising - assuming that I can survive long enough to get to the end game.Though better players would no doubt keep the pieces on the board and engage in complex tactics, I know that would be a bad idea for me. Increasing complexity would only add risk and play into my opponent's hands. So, as an alternative and for survival, I need to simplify things. |  |
Position after: 18. f3-e1 h6-e3 |
| Getting the team back together. Exchanging queens and knights eliminated some of the immediate risks I was facing and I was also able to gain another pawn. But, my extra material over black leaves me with two isolated pawns and two doubled pawns. With two rooks and two knights still on the board, black can find a way to pick those off. So, I need to get my team back together while at the same time making sure that the threats on my king are managed. |  |
Position after: 21. c4-d6 e8-f8 |
| Counter attack looming. While I continue to improve my position, there are still numerous threats that black still has that are lying in waiting for me. If I take black's menacing h3 pawn, he takes my pawn back with g4-h3 and a discovered check. This gives black a tempo, opens up the g file, and enables black to bring both rooks into aggressive play attacking my king or taking one of my pawn ranks. |  |
Position after: 26. b1-b3 h8-g8 |
| Pause the project. At this point in this correspondent chess game, I had to take three days to finally make my next move - a luxury that would not be possible in a clocked or tournament game. Black has numerous threats and good prospects for winning this game. My position is not without risk, but if I can exchange pieces with black and get all of our rooks and knights off the board, then I can advance my a4 pawn to the a8 rank - promoting it to a queen and likely obtaining black's resignation. |  |
Position after: 30. a2-a4 h3-g2 |
| Attention to detail. From this position, I just need to pay attention to the details. Black cannot both continue to attack my kingside and defend my advancing a5 pawn. With two knights, a rook, and advanced pawns, black can lure me into a trap or a fork if I am careless. I can still find a way to lose this game quite easily. |  |
Position after: 33. a4-a5 f3-h4 |
| The end game. Well, after a spirited contest, black resigned shortly after his 41st move as after b7-b8 there is no stopping the a7 pawn from advancing to a8. I survived the Sicilian Defense playing an opponent who is quite a bit better at chess than I am. I am quite sure that had we been on the clock in a timed setting, I would not have found the line of play that I was able to find after that three day pause I took. And, I suspect that I would have likely fallen victim to black's aggressive counter attack and tactics, so typical of the Sicilian Defense. |  |
Position after: 36. a5-a6 f5-f4 |
| So what does this game of chess have to do with project management? For me, just about everything. There is the initial plan, the execution of the plan, the project team (in this case the chess pieces), the monitoring and controlling of the progress, and of course the issues in the form of risks that have to be addressed in order to reach a successful outcome. And especially for me, it is also all about following the process verses engaging in ad hoc best efforts. At my limited level of chess ability, following the process means developing the pieces, controlling the center of the board, eliminating risks, and maintaining the tempo - the very same things that make for a successful project outcome. | ||
Posted on: December 18, 2009 02:27 PM |
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