How to mitigate the risks of complexity

 

To say complexity stops us from knowing if something is going to be an improvement is like saying walls stop us even when doors are present in the walls. This attitude about complexity has us ignore available doors to try. We may not always go in the right direction but we can figure it out from what we learn after passing through the door.

Complexity means we must sometimes rely on emergence.

In knowledge work, far more insidious than complexity are chaotic (non-linear) events, the coupling of events and the lack of visibility. These can be readily controlled. Virtually all disasters due to complexity are caused by a combination of these four factors - complexity, chaotic events, coupling and lack of visibility

Think of disasters caused by complexity as gun powder blowing up. Gun powder consists of a fuel (charcoal), an oxidizer (saltpeter or niter), and a stabilizer (sulfur) to allow for a constant reaction. Complexity represents the fuel. If you don't provide the oxidizer and stabilizer then you won't get an explosion.

You don't need to manage complexity, you manage what makes complexity risky. Use feedback to mitigate the risk of chaotic events. Avoid coupling when possible but and always make it visible.