Do Modern PMs Rely on Charts Too Much?
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Date
By Lynda Bourne

Ptolemy's world map (source: Wikipedia)
Do modern project managers and their clients rely on their charts and reports too much? We all know that project schedules, cost reports, risk assessments and other reports are produced by sophisticated computer software, these days increasingly enhanced by artificial intelligence. But does this sophisticated processing mean the charts are completely reliable?
The modern world is increasingly reliant on computer systems to direct and control many aspects of life—from self-driving cars, to autonomous warehouses, to the flight control systems in aircraft. But can this reliance on computer systems be translated to project controls information, or do we need a more ancient mindset?
Modern navigators rely on the accuracy of their GPS to know exactly where they are and where they are going. The autopilots are better than the human, but the data being used is precise and validated.
The same level of reliability and accuracy cannot be applied to project controls data. Every estimate is an assessment of what may occur in the future based on what happened in the past. Even when a sophisticated risk model is built, the P80 or P90 result is based on subjective range estimates taken from past events.
The future may unfold within the expected parameters, and it may not. We simply cannot determine the future in advance. While the quality of the project predictions is based on the quality of the data being used in the modelling processes (and the only guaranteed fact is the model will be incorrect), predictions do not control the future. The key question is: How useful are the models in helping navigate the project through to a successful conclusion? [Remember GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)?!]
In days gone by, navigators did not need accurate charts and satnav systems to reach their destinations. The Viking and Polynesian navigators crossed thousands of miles of open ocean to land on small islands using observations of the natural environment and tacit knowledge passed down from earlier generations. They knew certain seabird species only ventured relatively short distances from land, how clouds formed and changed over land, etc., augmented by primitive technologies.
Fast-forward a few centuries, and the early European navigators (Columbus, Magellan, Drake, Cook and countless others) had steadily improving charts that made navigating easier—but they also knew the best charts available were not accurate. The general shape of the world had been mapped since the time of Ptolemy (circa 150 CE), and as better information became available, better maps and charts were created. But these are still continuing to be improved into the 21st century.
So how did people navigate the globe without accurate maps and charts? I suggest there were four core elements in the approach, all of which can be applied to modern project management:
- Recognize the chart is a guide, get the best possible chart available and use it to plan your course—taking into account as much additional information and tacit knowledge you can access.
- Then, assume the chart is incorrect. Keep a sharp look out for unexpected issues and dangers, adjust course as needed, and keep collecting information along the way. You only run into the rocks you do not see!
- Keep adapting and adjusting your course to make the best of the current circumstances, using both known and emerging information—the destination does not change, but how you get there may.
- Then use the new information you have gathered to update the chart to benefit future voyages in the same direction.
To move from assuming controls information is correct, to seeing it as a useful guide that can be improved as better knowledge becomes available, requires a paradigm shift in thinking that sits comfortably alongside many of the concepts of agile.
The future is inherently uncertain and we can learn a lot from the way early navigators used imprecise charts to sail the oceans. Navigating the globe in past centuries and leading a project to a successful conclusion are both risky endeavours; this fact needs to be accepted, and the risks minimized by using the best available charts—while being aware of their limitations.
What do you think?
Posted
by
Lynda Bourne
on: September 14, 2023 09:52 PM |
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Comments (10)
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I agree - even if the chart/dashboard/report was correct at the time it was created, there's no guarantee it will still be accurate at the time it is shared. You could be using automated, real-time data, but it only tells you where you've been and the rough trajectory you're on assuming nothing changes, which a chart can't account for.
Consider that projects are investments of a company's resources. If we tracked projects like investments on Wall Street, we'd probably see similar fluctuations.
In my experience, it's not so much that project mangers rely too much on charts. It's that the people who want updates on projects want charts and they rarely want to talk about risk. They only want details when the chart tells them something they don't want to hear or when the chart is different from what they've heard. As long as everything is green, they're happy. Ignoring risk is the bigger problem.
A picture or chart speaks a thousand words, doesn't it?
Lynda Bourne
Director, Professional Development| Mosaic Project Services Pty Ltd
South Melbourne, Vic, Australia
A picture may speak a thousand words but how reliable, useful, or correct are they?
Luis Branco
CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª
Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Lynda
The topic you brought to our reflection and debate is very interesting.
Thank you for sharing and your suggestions
Even though I have read crazy stories about people who get into rivers because the GPS indicated that this was the path they should follow, I am convinced that Project Managers are smart people.
Navigators would certainly like to have been able to consult charts and obtain data that project managers have at their disposal these days.
Thank you for sharing this Lynde. Great background to your reflection.
It's hard to drive without a GPS nowadays. The probability of losing the way gets drastically low and the way is precisely defined.
What did we lose then (if anything) ? I remember travels with map, decision making process while getting to a crossing, looking for signs, a team effort between the driver and the navigator.
Dear Lynda
I feel charts are useful if the data is not fabricated. Sometimes misleading data can led us to an wrong conclusion/decision. Charts often do not emphasis on data at the lower scale
Yes, charts and graphs are very useful to me in my work. I rely on them a lot.
Interesting and engaging article, Lynda Bourne!
Ruth Marina Lopez Perez
Responsable TI| INSTITUTO DE PREVISION SOCIAL MILITAR - NICARAGUA
Masaya, Los Madrigales, Nindirí, Nicaragua
The graphs are very helpful, but not always highly reliable. We must be careful with the information given.
Interesting topic! Thanks.
Kwiyuh Michael Wepngong
Community Champion
Financial Management Specialist | US Peace Corps / Cameroon
Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon
Charts and graph are almost inevitable for most of us. The level of our reliance o it may vary from project to another...
Thanks for this Lynda
Tiago Lourenco PMP® MSc
Project Manager PMP® | Project Management as a Service (PMaaS)| Structured PM LTD
London, Eng, United Kingdom
Always tripple check the information given.
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