What won't change...
From the Easy in theory, difficult in practice Blog
by Kiron Bondale
My musings on project management, project portfolio management and change management.
I'm a firm believer that a pragmatic approach to organizational change that addresses process & technology, but primarily, people will maximize chances for success.
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Based on the extensive media coverage, YouTube videos, TED Talks, and books published, many might agree that 2023 has been hailed as the year of artificial intelligence, at least in terms of mindshare if not market dominance.
Throughout the past year, online project management communities have frequently discussed the potential impact of A.I. tools on the role of project managers. While concerns persist about potential negative effects, such as new project risks and potential job displacement, there's also optimism. A.I. tools, when used appropriately, are seen as potential assistants in delivering projects more efficiently and effectively, akin to other professions.
However, let's maintain perspective. Like previous project management tools—such as schedulers and knowledge management platforms—some aspects of our work won't be affected by A.I. until projects can be entirely completed by machines without human involvement.
Certain challenges will persist:
- Commitments will still be made prematurely: A.I. might provide better reasoning for unattainable completion dates or funding amounts, but it's unlikely to deter senior stakeholders from imposing unrealistic constraints.
- What you don't know will still hurt more than what you do know: In the near term, we won't have sufficiently advanced A.I. capabilities to identify all the possible risks which could impact our projects. And as complexity continues to increase, the likelihood remains that unknown-unknowns will affect our projects to a greater extent than the known-unknowns.
- Stakeholders will continue to surprise us: Provided sufficient context, A.I. tools might be able to improve our forecast of how stakeholders will respond to a given decision or project approach. However, if we've learned anything from The Matrix, even if humans are part of an A.I. system, they'll still find ways to behave unexpectedly.
- More concurrent work than can be effectively delivered: A.I. tools might give us a better understanding of the capacity within our teams and our throughput potential, but with the exception of those who use product-centric delivery models or who embrace the flow guidance of Dr. Goldratt or Don Reinertsen, most will still welcome more work into their system than should be permitted, so multitasking, work overload and the inability to accurately forecast people's availability will persist.
- The single biggest problem in communication: A.I. tools will eventually help us to bridge communication gaps with real-time context sensitive translation and guidance to make better choices about messaging tone, medium and other factors. Nevertheless, some gaps, as demonstrated in 'Star Trek: The Next Generation's' episode 'Darmok,' may remain insurmountable.
So as the dawn of 2024 approaches, lets greet it with the confidence that while some things are likely change in project delivery, most won't.
"The art of progress is to preserve order amid change and to preserve change amid order." - Alfred North Whitehead
Posted on: December 23, 2023 10:19 AM |
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Comments (12)
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Luis Branco
CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª
Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Thank you for sharing and your opinions
I enjoy reading what you write and I always take your opinions into account.
Thank you very much
I know that many project managers are incorporating AI into their projects and are satisfied with the results
I also know that support technology has evolved
I take this opportunity to wish you a Holy and Merry Christmas and hope that 2004 brings you (you and your family) everything you desire.
Thanks Luis - happy holidays to you and your family as well!
Kwiyuh Michael Wepngong
Community Champion
Financial Management Specialist | US Peace Corps / Cameroon
Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon
The year of AI truly,.thanks for this
Thanks Kwiyuh - perhaps 2024 will be the year of less hype and more value generated by AI ;-)
Markus Kopko
Principal Project Management Consultant| Karer Consulting AG
Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Dear Kiron,
The perspective you offer on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of project management, as we transition into 2024, is both pragmatic and insightful. Indeed, 2023 has seen a significant buzz around AI, with discussions veering between apprehension and optimism about its role in project management. Your balanced view provides a necessary grounding in this evolving discourse.
While AI's potential to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in project management is acknowledged, you rightly point out that some fundamental challenges will persist. For example, the pressure from senior stakeholders for unrealistic project timelines and budgets is a human factor that AI, in its current form, is unlikely to mitigate. The complexity and unpredictability inherent in projects, especially regarding risk management and stakeholder behavior, remain outside the full grasp of AI.
Your mention of the continued occurrence of unknown-unknowns in projects, despite AI advancements, is particularly poignant. It highlights that, while AI can augment our capabilities in identifying and managing risks, the complexity and unpredictability of real-world projects still require human intuition and experience.
The point about stakeholders continuing to surprise us resonates deeply. Even with AI's potential to predict stakeholder responses, human behavior's inherent unpredictability is a reminder of the limitations of AI in capturing the full spectrum of human emotions and reactions.
The issue of overcommitment in projects, even with better AI-driven insights into team capacity and throughput potential, reflects a deeper organizational culture issue. It underscores the need for a change in mindset towards work intake and prioritization, beyond what technology can offer.
Finally, the communication challenges, despite advancements in AI, remind us of the intricate and nuanced nature of human interactions. AI may facilitate better communication, but understanding and bridging deep-seated communication gaps is a profoundly human endeavor.
As we step into 2024, your message seems to be one of cautious optimism. AI, with all its advancements, will undoubtedly change certain aspects of project management, but many core challenges will still require the nuanced understanding, empathy, and adaptability that only humans can provide.
In light of this, how do you envision the role of project managers evolving with the increasing integration of AI tools? And what strategies would you suggest for project managers to prepare for this AI-augmented future while remaining grounded in the essential human aspects of project management? Your insights on these points would be invaluable as we navigate this new landscape.
BR,
Markus
Jenelle Oberholtzer
Functional Architect II| TalenTech Digital
Mechanicsburg, Pa, United States
I appreciated the list of anticipated, persistent challenges that will likely require the engagement of project managers, even if AI resources were utilized. The unpredictability of stakeholder behavior seemed to resonate the most with me based upon my experiences. Your blog post seemed to have more of a realist's perspective on the offerings of AI, which was welcome amid the excitement and at times, hype.
One thing for sure, the future is coming...
So Now as the dawn of 2024 , let’s greet it with the confidence that while some things are likely change in project delivery, most won’t. Yes true observed . Mr. Kiron
Michael Browning
Director, Cybersecurity| Vanderbilt University
Nashville, United States
Great insight - thank you for sharing!
Thanks you for sharing the opinions about challenges will persist.
Here are some comments and predictions about some points:
-" but it's unlikely to deter senior stakeholders from imposing unrealistic constraints."
I believe that stakeholders will believe in A.I results more than human results, so when we provide the A.I system with all inputs including project objectives and capabilities that we have , the output of expected constraints (cost , schedule....) will be considered reasonable without much arguments "says it's accurate systems " . on the other hand , if the result comes from human " we can push them " , stakeholders they believe there will be space to impose tight unrealistic constraints.
-"we won't have sufficiently advanced A.I. capabilities to identify all the possible risks which could impact our projects. And as complexity continues to increase, the likelihood remains that unknown-unknowns will affect our projects to a greater extent than the known-unknowns."
With Time , as the A.I system fed with large amount of data including past projects risk registers , issues , and lesson learned, the A.I will surprise us by providing a long list of unknown- unknowns.
Insightful perspective! AI enhances, but human touch remains essential. Let's balance tech and human strengths for a brighter project management future!
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