Voices on Project Management

I’ve been trying to learn more about good decision-making and recently read Daniel Kahneman’s famous Thinking Fast and Slow. It’s very surprising to see the number of fallacies and biases that cloud our decision-making, with some impacting us more than others. Here are three of the most common fallacies that we encounter in project and program management, along with a few “smartcuts” (smarter way of doing things) to mitigate them. 

1. Planning fallacy: the tendency to underestimate the time, costs and risks of future actions, while overestimating the benefits of the same actions
Smartcuts:
•    Conduct a pre-mortem: Think of what could go wrong, work backwards and plan for those scenarios.
•    Use chunking: Break down the project into as small tasks as you and the team can.
•    Try consensus-based estimation: This method uses conversation and convergence to reduce individual cognitive biases—but it’s time-consuming. To strike a balance, I’d recommend using it only for complex features or projects in which there’s not much leeway in delivery time.
•    Add buffer: This decision depends on a lot of factors: type of project, whether there’s a need to have a definite deadline, complexity, dependencies etc. At a basic level, if you’ve been working with the team and have a history of how much the estimates are off by, you can plan to add that much buffer. If it’s a new team, and you don’t have any idea, look for similar projects use that data to gauge the buffer.

2. Sunk cost fallacy: an increased propensity to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort or time has been made 
Smartcuts:
•    Don’t just think about the time/money already spent. Instead, think of how much additional time/money is needed and if continuing the project will be a worthwhile investment.
•    Companies can help employees overcome loss aversion by putting greater values on gains and less penalties for losses. While this is something that happens at the enterprise level and might not be in our sphere of influence, you can influence it at a program and project level when framing wins and losses. For example, instead of saying, “We were over budget by 10 percent,” try framing it as, “We were within +10 percent of our initial estimates.”
•    Avoid perpetuating the stigma that stopping a project is a failure. Instead frame it as a lesson learned and incentivize people to make such decisions in the projects and programs they manage.
•    Consider opportunity costs. By sticking to the original plan, think of all the projects you’re giving up.

3. Status quo bias: sticking with the option you’re given even though the alternatives might be better
Smartcuts:
•    When you propose any change, be very clear and intentional about why you’re proposing it. Explain the problem statement you’re trying to solve and then detail the pros and cons of status quo versus the change.
•    Evaluate the opportunity cost of making the change versus sticking with the status quo.

While it’s not possible to eliminate all biases and fallacies, being cognizant of them and recognizing them will guide us in making better decisions.

What are some of the fallacies and biases you’ve held onto and how have you overcome them?

Here is a link to the unabridged version of this post.

By Cyndee Miller

This is normally the day where I’d write a post extolling all the amazing things that female project leaders are doing. And there’s certainly plenty to celebrate. Those women you see in the video above are leading the way in everything from space exploration and AI to healthcare and renewables. So let’s start with a simple note of recognition: Bravo!

But I’d be remiss not to also acknowledge a fundamental reality: The pandemic has taken an enormous toll on working women. A UN report found that while the unpaid workloads for both men and women have increased, women are bearing more of the burden. And according to a recent study by McKinsey and LeanIn.Org, senior-level women in the U.S. are far more likely than their male counterparts to feel burned out, exhausted and under pressure to work more.

Asked whether that aligned with her experience, Kat Megas, PMP, was blunt: “Yes, yes and yes,” she says on an upcoming episode of the Projectified® podcast.

And while she says she’s been “very encouraged” by peers and the organizations she’s worked for, there’s still some work ahead, says Megas, a program manager at the National Institute of Standards and Technology in McLean, Virginia, USA.

Megas outlines a situation that I think every single female leader—particularly those in male-dominated fields—has experienced at some point: Your idea is met by a sea of confused looks until a colleague says the same thing—and it’s lauded as a brilliant idea.

She puts it down to different communication styles—that women try to bring people along and pose ideas “as a question and something to be thought through so that the whole team can come on board.”

It’s a fair point and one that some teams are even looking to technology to solve. UK global creative agency AnalogFolk saw that women often choose wording that makes them sound passive. So the agency developed a tool called BigUp.AI that uses natural language processing and machine learning to analyze blocks of text and offer users more powerful wording. It’s impressive stuff—earning it a slot on the PMI Most Influential Projects social good top 10 list.

But Megas rightly points out that she and other women shouldn’t have to do all the adjusting.

“I don’t want to have to change who I am to fit into the mold. I like the way I approach things. I like the fact that I am a consensus builder. I like the fact that I think I have the right answer, but I will always be open to a broader discussion,” she says. “I would like to think that that would be a world where one day that would not be perceived as being indecisive or not being willing to take leadership or make the decision, and there would just be a recognition for different styles.”

This is about respect. And the differences are felt even more deeply among Black women in the U.S. They were the least likely among all respondent groups to report feeling like a valued member of their team, that they were being treated with respect and that there's a climate of fair treatment among coworkers, according to a Gallup survey conducted late last year.

At the same time, the COVID crisis has highlighted the emergence of a new female force in leadership, according to two speakers at the Brightline Strategy@Work conference last November. And they pointed to New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“One of the characteristics and attributes of what we’ve been seeing from women taking on those leadership and authority positions is decisiveness. Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand—obviously, incredibly decisive with a lockdown very early,” said Kit Krugman, head of organization and culture design at Co:collective.

“There is fierce resolve. There is decisiveness. There’s this determination coupled with the sense of relating to what others are going through—that empathy—that really seems to speak to people at this moment in time,” said Vince Molinaro, PhD, CEO and founder of Leadership Contract.

“It’s exciting to see just great leadership—full stop. And the fact that it happens to be a lot of women in political roles or political leaders, running our countries, is no coincidence. It’s great to see that playing out, and there’s lots to learn from what they’re doing. It’s just great to see how they’re managing the complexity of our times.”

How are you seeing women rising to these complex times?

by Wanda Curlee

Saying COVID has changed the way we do business is an understatement. Some companies accelerated their projects, pivoting to quickly to support clientele. Others had to overhaul processes because of virtual or hybrid working environments. One thing was certain: Standing idle in the face of uncertainty was not an option—and that has translated to big changes to how portfolios are managed.

Some projects or programs may have to be canceled or moved in the sequence or scope deleted. Any of these in a typical environment may be useful—but during COVID, that could be the end of a company or cause a severe financial burden. When projects and programs remain unfinished, the company’s goals aren’t met. Not meeting the company’s strategic objectives may mean the company gets beat in the marketplace or that they don’t have a new product to introduce or that they can’t meet an internal need. And the list goes on.

         Restaurants, service companies, construction companies and many others impacted by COVID had to move quickly. Leadership and portfolio managers had to shift with the changing economy. Those that pivoted with intent by thinking of alternate ways to move the company had a better chance of surviving. Within the restaurant sector, some establishments leaned into personal catering more, for example, while others sold off their meats and vegetables along with seasonings to locals as family dinner kits.

         Some portfolios went into overdrive to meet demands. The ones that come to mind in the U.S. are large retailers, supermarkets and fast-food companies. They were all considered essential. However, they also had to pivot. They designated shopping times for the elderly and those with medical conditions, for example. And many large retailers rolled out a variety of options for customers to get their merchandise: same-day delivery, curbside pickup and parking lot deliveries.

Leaders in many companies believe the world will go back to business as usual after getting to herd immunity via the vaccine. While I expect a sense of normalcy to emerge at some point, I don’t believe we’ll ever return to where we were before the pandemic. Even as the business landscape stabilizes, portfolios will still have to pivot quickly. It may not be a pandemic, but there could be a shift in the economy, politics or industry. Now more than ever, you must document the successes and failures within your portfolio—and use the information the next time you need to pivot.

What are some lessons learned you’ve gathered about managing a portfolio amid such uncertainty?

by Cyndee Miller

Will 2021 truly be the year of epic charcuterie? Or maybe it’s the citizen care pod? Searching for The Next Big Thing has sent me down many an internet rabbit hole. And truth be told, the ROI is often not great. So in the spirit of uber efficiency, I present PMI’s latest report: Megatrends 2021. It has the scoop on the big trends, but it’s also specifically curated for project leaders so you can see how these tectonic shifts are actually playing out across projects.

“We know the world changed significantly in 2020, but our research confirmed the long-term impact of how these trends are changing how the world does business,” said PMI President and CEO Sunil Prashara. “There is virtually no industry and no geography that is untouched by the five megatrends outlined in this report. From COVID-19 to the climate crisis to the mainstream use of AI, these forces are driving change across sectors, requiring leaders to embrace new ways of thinking and working. As changemakers in their organizations and communities, project leaders are in a unique position to tackle these challenges and embrace new possibilities.”

Without further ado, here are the 5 big megatrends you should be watching:

COVID-19

No doubt, this one’s pretty obvious. The health impact alone is staggering: More than 2.3 million people have died as of early February. But it’s also the way that the virus has exposed deep systemic inequalities in income, wealth, employment, healthcare access and digital access that's forcing companies to rethink and reinvent.

Megatrend in action: Learning Passport

“The world of education got knocked 30 years ahead overnight,” said Mac Glovinsky, program manager at UNICEF. With schools in more than 190 countries closed, he and his team worked with Microsoft, the University of Cambridge and Dubai Cares to quickly expand an existing digital platform that would meet the pandemic-fueled demands of stuck-at-home students in underprivileged areas.

CLIMATE CRISIS

Again, this one shouldn’t be a big shocker, but the pandemic put it front and center—and made it abundantly clear that we’re running out of time. Perhaps the biggest existential threat humanity has ever faced, the climate crisis can be mitigated only with ambitious, innovative initiatives—and the project talent to make those plans reality.

Megatrend in action: Stella McCartney

The ecoluxe designer began testing out a new tool from Google Cloud that uses data analytics and machine learning to give brands a more comprehensive view of their supply chain. For sustainability-driven McCartney, the project is an opportunity to lead the notoriously wasteful fashion industry in better measuring the impacts of its raw material sourcing on air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, land use and water scarcity.

CIVIL, CIVIC AND EQUALITY MOVEMENTS

I’m old enough to remember a time—and it wasn’t that long ago—when organizations taking a stand on social issues was considered bad business or strictly the province of more “progressive” companies. The massive global protests of 2020—the latest in a decade of large-scale protests covering a whole host of societal issues—changed all that. Silence is no longer an option—and change is a question of when, not if.

Megatrend in action: Bandages for All

As discussions over diversity and inclusion dominated, leaders of Johnson & Johnson’s Band-Aid brand released a new line of bandages representing non-white skin tones. It was actually a retread of a previous project—that happened to be in lock-step with consumer sentiment growing louder by the day. The century-old brand had previously released a range of bandages in multiple skin tones in 2005, but discontinued them three years later. Smaller companies had tried to fill the gap, but the new project is a powerful statement from a major consumer brand.

SHIFTING GLOBALIZATION DYNAMICS

Emerging markets have rocketed onto the global stage. But these up-and-comers need serious infrastructure and education investments to avoid being mired in middle-income status—and to help their large, young populations find decent work. That’s where project leaders can really make a difference.

Megatrend in action: UN Office for Project Services

To move the needle in emerging markets, the organization invests in a range of projects, from improving irrigation in drought-stricken countries to improving internet access. “Every project is different but they all follow the same logic: create sustainable opportunities in the community to generate revenue and reduce poverty,” said Farhad Abdollahyan, head of the org’s project management office.

MAINSTREAM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AI is now table stakes for many companies. Even my Yves Saint Laurent lipstick will soon use AI to deliver a bespoke hue just for moi. While that’s lovely, the seamless integration of algorithms into peoples’ daily lives means encoded opinions don’t get noticed, let alone questioned. To combat bias being built into AI, project leaders need to double down on building diverse teams and including different POVs and perspectives.

Megatrend in action: BigUp.AI

Leaders at UK global creative agency AnalogFolk saw how language could affect how people are perceived—and that women often choose wording that makes them sound passive. So the agency developed its BigUp.AI tool that uses natural language processing and machine learning to analyze blocks of text and offer users more powerful wording.

The world is only beginning to ponder the post-pandemic reality, but there’s no doubt these five megatrends will dominate The Project Economy. And it’s up to project leaders and changemakers to be up on emerging developments so they can find business opportunities—and make the world a better place.

How are you seeing these trends manifest on your projects?

by Dave Wakeman, PMP

I’ve worked on political campaigns, in sports, in theater, in ticketing, in marketing and a lot more. I like to consider myself a good example of all the ways a Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification can be helpful in industries of all sorts.

Over the last month or so, I did some research to figure out how I could grow my skills in 2021. While the focus of my research directly related to my work as a marketer, the data still has some utility for project managers. 

First, the details. In looking to see what CEOs thought of their marketing departments, I found that in a survey of over 500 mid-to-large businesses, 80 percent of CEOs didn’t trust their marketing departments. That was stunning and I went to look to see what I could make out of it by checking out the marketing and strategy folks to see where their heads were. In a sample of just over 1,100 marketers, 73 percent were looking to grow their businesses in 2021, 40 percent don’t have a strategy and 53 percent who want to grow don’t know where to start. 

I’m sure you’re wondering where I’m going with this. Project managers should pay attention to these numbers for a few reasons. 

First, in our roles, we have to win the support of our sponsors. I don’t know if the number of sponsors who are uncertain about what their project leaders are doing is similar to my research findings, but the bigger question is: Are we making certain that we have the trust of our sponsors? 

The second point here is that we need to know what we want to achieve—and we need a plan to get there. That’s reflected in the marketing survey: Folks know they want to grow, but about 40 percent of them don’t have a plan to get started. As project professionals, this hits close to home, because if we aren’t careful, our plans get overrun by other activities. It’s our job to always keep our goals in mind as we move forward. 

 Finally, if we don’t know where we’re heading or how to get somewhere, it’s totally fine to ask for help. In fact, doing our jobs well means we need to ask for help. 

For me, these discoveries led to brand articulation for the new year built around being a more focused, effective and profitable project manager. 

What are your biggest goals or areas of growth you’ve identified for 2021?