Guessing is not a strategy: How to build decision velocity with AI and real-time data
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Viewing Posts by Kevin Korterud
The Fairest Metric of All
Categories:
Metrics
Categories: Metrics
| We often rely on a number of different metrics to help create insights into our true project progress. These can range from discrete indicators, such as schedule performance index, to more subjective measures, such as forecasting completion dates based on prior experience on similar projects. I am asked on regular basis which project progress metrics is my favorite. In other words: If I were marooned on an island with a project status report with only one project metric, which one would I pick? After careful consideration (and I hope I have more supplies than just a status report when marooned on an island!), I would likely select the estimate to complete (ETC) metric. Here's why: 1. Task ETC tells me much more. Primarily, ETC serves as a simple measure of remaining effort for a task. However, ETC at the task level can shed light on other areas that provide visibility to project progress. To arrive at a task-level ETC, a project team member must take into consideration not only the remaining effort, but other factors such as resource capabilities, resource availability, dependencies and lead times for any task reviews. The rigor required to arrive at a task-level ETC compels team members to think through many variables that influence remaining effort. As you can see, this exercise tells us a lot more than just a number. 2. ETC reduction closely measures true progress. We like to see task-level ETC going down each week at roughly the same pace of the resource capacity we have working on the task. However, ETC figures might not always be reduced at this expected rate. This situation can arise from a number of factors, all which require further inquiry by the project manager. They can include resources assigned to the task being distracted by other projects, delays on deliverables caused by other teams or a potential increase in the remaining forecasted work. 3. ETC can help find major project issues. There are situations when a project team member cannot arrive at a revised ETC figure. When that occurs, it is a strong indicator that visibility to the necessary inputs required to complete the tasks is not present. This should compel you to escalate the lack of visibility as a project issue and pursue remedies. These could include actions such as seeking guidance from subject matter experts, reassigning the task to a more capable team member and increasing interactions with other project teams for their input. 4. Project ETC does what ETC does best. The movement of task-level ETCs can be aggregated to arrive at an overall project ETC. As with task-level ETCs often not being reduced at a desired rate, comparing prior and current ETCs at the project level can point to larger project issues. In addition, the project ETC actually helps you assess the team's ability to achieve the scheduled completion date. You can compare the project ETC against the future resource availability to see if there is sufficient capacity to achieve the desired completion date. While I like to have a healthy mix of metrics to help gauge project progress, quite often I fall back on ETC as an effective and efficient means of determining project progress as well as the factors that impact this progress. What is your favorite metric? What are other ways to employ ETC in a project? |
World-Class Lessons from World Cup Coaches
Categories:
Leadership
Categories: Leadership
| Photo: AC Moraes People around the globe are tuning in to the FIFA World Cup. Even overloaded project managers will manage to find time to watch some of the global football championship coverage and root for their team. I can't help but find parallels between what happens on the pitch and some of the challenges we face as project managers. Both successful World Cup coaches and project managers spend a lot of time giving direction to a team to mitigate unexpected events. Here are four lessons to take away from these coaches that could help ensure your project produces winning results in the face of the unforeseen: 1. Set starters and specialists. World Cup coaches know what skills key team members must have to win games. They also have intimate knowledge of their players' skills, capacities, endurance and adaptability to changing conditions. That knowledge allows coaches to pick the players they want to start the game as well as those specialists to enter the field when the key players need support. Project managers should also know who the key team members are to have at the start of a project and the specialized resources -- such as subject matter experts on the business or work planners -- needed toward project completion to ensure success. 2. Be a coach, not a player. One of the more risky tendencies for a coach is to try to teach his own playing expertise to the team members. Yet the best World Cup coaches focus on making the team perform well as a whole, not on providing detailed instruction on ball technique. Specialized coaches (for physical training or goaltending, for example) and fellow team members should provide this detailed level of instruction, leaving the World Cup coach free to direct the overall flow of the game. Project managers can do the same by identifying and employing specialized resources that can assist team members with fundamentals, such as writing good requirements and creating work plans. This frees up the project manager to focus on solving risks and issues across the project. 3. Make sure everyone knows the plays. World Cup coaches go to great lengths to employ existing plays that are a good match for their players. In addition, they spend time creating new plays that can be used in unexpected conditions that can come up during a game. The World Cup coach spends a lot of preparation and practice time with the team making sure the plays are executed in a smooth and efficient manner. Project managers can do the same by identifying the right approaches -- that is, methods, processes and tools -- and spending time with the team to practice the execution of these approaches. 4. Provide feedback on results. At the end of every game, World Cup coaches spend time with the team as well as the media, sharing their thoughts on the outcome of the game. In addition, they will frequently share key decisions and outcomes that resulted in a win or loss for the team. World Cup coaches do this in a manner that reflects the overall effort of the team as opposed to the efforts of a few key players. Project managers should provide this type of feedback at regular intervals throughout the project, especially during project status meetings. Projects also have the equivalent of media attention in the form of sponsors, so project managers should openly provide the same type of feedback on a regular basis. What behaviors and practices have you seen that might help project managers create winning projects? |
What Race Cars Can Teach Us About Projects
Categories:
Project Planning
Categories: Project Planning
| My last post on when to pull over a project to the side of the road generated much action on the Voices on Project Management Twitter feed. Here, I'll expand on that theme by highlighting the similarities in the makings of a race car and a successful project. Today's race cars are a marvel of engineering and performance. They achieve these results while being extremely complicated and operating in harsh environments. However, to the spectator, racing appears to happen easily and naturally. When we see a race car whiz by, we don't see the many hours of planning that go into achieving both high speed and durability. Therein lies the parallel between race cars and projects. As project practitioners, we need to consistently ask ourselves whether our "project race car" is ready and able to win the race. This includes design and preparations before the race as well as vigilant monitoring of performance. Here are four essential components of a "project race car" that have to be well engineered and constantly monitored for your project to be a success:
How many times have you started a project "race" though one of the previously mentioned components was missing? What is the most frequently omitted element in the "project race car"? For an insider look at car racing, read about a recent keynote speech on Formula One by Mark Gallagher at PMI® Global Congress 2014 -- EMEA. |
4 Signs to Pull Over and Stop a Project
Categories:
Project Delivery
Categories: Project Delivery
| Photo: Courtesy of tequilamike Have you ever seen the award-winning movie Rush? In it, Austrian Niki Lauda, Formula One World Champion racing driver, lectured fellow competitor from England, James Hunt, on risk management. Mr. Lauda states that he manages to a risk factor of 20 percent; any conditions that produced risk over this factor could lead to a deadly accident. At the last race of the season, Mr. Lauda pulls over in a rainstorm as he feels there is too much risk. While this action hands the top prize to Mr. Hunt, Mr. Lauda is unrepentant in his action to pull off the road. He goes on to win more racing world championships than Mr. Hunt. Projects are like racecars -- both are complicated and exist in environments where there are many moving parts. That's why, as with a race, knowing when to put the brakes on a project will be best in the long-run. Here are four warning signs that you need to pull over:
We are typically judged by the amount of progress we make as well as the outcomes from our projects. But we should also be judged on our ability to cease projects when the level of risk is too high. Although it might seem like a sign of weakness, stopping and re-directing a project incurring too much risk can reduce the potential overall cost and preserve its value proposition. Under what conditions have you had to stop a project due to too much risk? |
Procurement: A Project Manager's Best Friend
Categories:
Procurement Management
Categories: Procurement Management
| We all agree that projects need things. These things can run the gamut, from pencils to gas turbines. In the past, the corporate function that acquired things for projects was called "purchasing." Its sole role was to do what the title implies — purchase things. As corporate governance evolved, so did the purchasing department into what we now know as procurement. Today, procurement has to orchestrate the acquisition of hundreds, if not thousands, of things for projects on a daily basis. In addition, this department puts in place policies that keep project managers from purchasing a gas turbine when they need only a pencil. Traditionally, project managers have viewed procurement departments as a barrier to progress and a constant source of frustration. However, this friction can sometimes be the fault of the project manager, who's not practicing good stakeholder management with procurement team members. As with any other stakeholder, team members from procurement need to be an integral part of the project team. Let's look at ways to make this happen, as well as the benefits of doing so:
By adopting these practices, you can better leverage the specialized skills of procurement team members — and you just might be able to acquire both pencils and turbines in a manner that will keep your project on schedule. What methods can you recommend to help integrate procurement into your project team? Find out more about procurement in A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)—Fifth Edition. |