Our Biggest Unused Weapon
From the Voices on Project Management Blog
by Cameron McGaughy,
Lynda Bourne, Kevin Korterud, Peter Tarhanidis, Conrado Morlan, Jen Skrabak, Mario Trentim, Christian Bisson, Yasmina Khelifi, Sree Rao, Soma Bhattacharya, Emily Luijbregts, David Wakeman, Ramiro Rodrigues, Wanda Curlee, Lenka Pincot, cyndee miller, Jorge Martin Valdes Garciatorres, Marat Oyvetsky
Voices on Project Management offers insights, tips, advice and personal stories from project managers in different regions and industries. The goal is to get you thinking, and spark a discussion. So, if you read something that you agree with--or even disagree with--leave a comment.
View Posts By:
Cameron McGaughy
Lynda Bourne
Kevin Korterud
Peter Tarhanidis
Conrado Morlan
Jen Skrabak
Mario Trentim
Christian Bisson
Yasmina Khelifi
Sree Rao
Soma Bhattacharya
Emily Luijbregts
David Wakeman
Ramiro Rodrigues
Wanda Curlee
Lenka Pincot
cyndee miller
Jorge Martin Valdes Garciatorres
Marat Oyvetsky
Past Contributors:
Rex Holmlin
Vivek Prakash
Dan Goldfischer
Linda Agyapong
Jim De Piante
Siti Hajar Abdul Hamid
Bernadine Douglas
Michael Hatfield
Deanna Landers
Kelley Hunsberger
Taralyn Frasqueri-Molina
Alfonso Bucero Torres
Marian Haus
Shobhna Raghupathy
Peter Taylor
Joanna Newman
Saira Karim
Jess Tayel
Lung-Hung Chou
Rebecca Braglio
Roberto Toledo
Geoff Mattie
Recent Posts
Project 2030: Skills We Need to Cultivate Now
The Technical Program Manager: How to Stay Relevant in 2025
5 Things Your Operational Plan Should Do
5 New Project Guardrails for Adaptive Leaders
The Leader's Voice: Respect It, Protect It, and Use It Properly!
Categories
2020,
Adult Development,
Agile,
Agile,
Agile,
agile,
Agile management,
Agile management,
Agile;Community;Talent management,
Artificial Intelligence,
Backlog,
Basics,
Benefits Realization,
Best Practices,
BIM,
business acumen,
Business Analysis,
Business Analysis,
Business Case,
Business Intelligence,
Business Transformation,
Calculating Project Value,
Canvas,
Career Development,
Career Development,
Career Help,
Career Help,
Career Help,
Career Help,
Careers,
Careers,
Careers,
Careers,
Categories: Career Help,
Change Management,
Cloud Computing,
Collaboration,
Collaboration,
Collaboration,
Collaboration,
Collaboration,
Communication,
Communication,
Communication,
Communication,
Communications Management,
Complexity,
Conflict,
Conflict Management,
Consulting,
Continuous Learning,
Continuous Learning,
Continuous Learning,
Continuous Learning,
Continuous Learning,
Cost Management,
COVID-19,
Crises,
Crisis Management,
critical success factors,
Cultural Awareness,
Culture,
Decision Making,
Design Thinking,
Digital Project Management,
Digital Transformation,
digital transformation,
Digitalisation,
Disruption,
Diversity,
Diversity,
Documentation,
Earned Value Management,
Education,
EEWH,
Enterprise Risk Management,
Escalation management,
Estimating,
Ethics,
execution,
Expectations Management,
Facilitation,
feasibility studies,
Future,
Future of Project Management,
Generational PM,
Governance,
Government,
green building,
Growth,
Horizontal Development,
Human Aspects of PM,
Human Aspects of PM,
Human Aspects of PM,
Human Aspects of PM,
Human Aspects of PM,
Human Resources,
Inclusion,
Information Technology,
Innovation,
Intelligent Building,
International,
International Development,
Internet of Things (IOT),
Internet of Things (IoT),
IOT,
Knowledge,
Leadership,
Leadership,
Leadership,
Leadership,
Leadership,
lean construction,
LEED,
Lessons Learned,
Lessons learned;Retrospective,
Managing for Stakeholders,
managing stakeholders as clients,
Mentoring,
Mentoring,
Mentoring,
Mentoring,
Mentoring,
Methodology,
Metrics,
Micromanagement,
Microsoft Project PPM,
Motivation,
Negotiation,
Neuroscience,
neuroscience,
New Practitioners,
Nontraditional Project Management,
OKR,
Online Learning,
opportunity,
Organizational Culture,
Organizational Project Management,
Pandemic,
People management,
Planing,
planning,
PM & the Economy,
PM History,
PM Think About It,
PMBOK Guide,
PMI,
PMI EMEA 2018,
PMI EMEA Congress 2017,
PMI EMEA Congress 2019,
PMI Global Conference 2017,
PMI Global Conference 2018,
PMI Global Conference 2019,
PMI Global Congress 2010 - North America,
PMI Global Congress 2011 - EMEA,
PMI Global Congress 2011 - North America,
PMI Global Congress 2012 - EMEA,
PMI Global Congress 2012 - North America,
PMI Global Congress 2013 - EMEA,
PMI Global Congress 2013 - North America,
PMI Global Congress 2014 - EMEA,
PMI Global Congress 2014 - North America,
PMI GLobal Congress EMEA 2018,
PMI PMO Symposium 2012,
PMI PMO Symposium 2013,
PMI PMO Symposium 2015,
PMI PMO Symposium 2016,
PMI PMO Symposium 2017,
PMI PMO Symposium 2018,
PMI Pulse of the Profession,
PMO,
PMO,
pmo,
PMO Project Management Office,
portfolio,
Portfolio Management,
Portfolio Management,
portfolio management,
presentations,
Priorities,
Probability,
Problem Structuring Methods,
Process,
Procurement Management,
profess,
Program Management,
project,
Project Delivery,
Project Dependencies,
Project Failure,
project failure,
Project Leadership,
Project Management,
project management,
project management office,
Project Planning,
project planning,
Project Requirements,
Project Success,
Ransomware,
Reflections on the PM Life,
Remote,
Remote Work,
Requirements Management,
Research Conference 2010,
Researching the Value of Project Management,
Resiliency,
Risk Management,
Risk Management,
Risk management,
risk management,
ROI,
Roundtable,
Salary Survey,
Schedule Management,
Scheduling,
Scope Management,
Scrum,
search,
SelfLeadership,
SelfLeadership,
SelfLeadership,
SelfLeadership,
SelfLeadership,
Servant Leadership,
Sharing Knowledge,
Sharing Knowledge,
Sharing Knowledge,
Sharing Knowledge,
Sharing Knowledge,
Social Responsibility,
Sponsorship,
Stakeholder Management,
Stakeholder Management,
stakeholder management,
Strategy,
Strategy,
swot,
Talent Management,
Talent Management,
Talent Management,
Talent Management,
Talent Management,
Talent Management Leadership SelfLeadership Collaboration Communication,
Taskforce,
Teams,
Teams in Agile,
Teams in Agile,
teamwork,
Tech,
Technical Debt,
Technology,
TED Talks,
The Project Economy,
Timeline,
Tools,
tools,
Transformation,
transformation,
Transition,
Trust,
Value,
Vertical Development,
Volunteering,
Volunteering #Leadership #SelfLeadership,
Volunteering Sharing Knowledge Leadership SelfLeadership Collaboration Trust,
VUCA,
Women in PM,
Women in Project Management
Date
The primary capital ship of most blue-water navies is the aircraft carrier. According to Rob Stern, in
U.S. Battleships in Action,
Part 2 a pair of aircraft carriers can deliver around 35 tons to a target in one hour. A United States Iowa-class battleship can do the same job in 90 seconds.
The U.S. Navy has four of these battleships, but, fortunately for enemies of the United States, only one is in the reserve fleet, while the others have been converted to museums.
Why is such a clearly effective weapon not in use? It may be because of the relative ease with which aircraft carriers sank battleships during World War II, leading to the conclusion that the carriers were superior naval vessels in all respects.
In the epic struggle to advance project management capability within our organizations, I think it's important to recognize that we are in competition with other management approaches and information streams. And in this competition, we may be failing to use the most powerful weapon in our arsenal: the capability of an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) to predict the future.
Accurate prediction of the future is obviously a very useful capability. In the project management world, the key pieces of future information include: How much will this project end up costing, and how long will it take?
These twin brass rings of project management information are hotly pursued in a variety of ways--most of them incorrectly, in my opinion. The most common approach is to re-estimate the remaining costs and duration of an on-going project, and to then add that amount to cumulative costs or duration.
This method, despite being notoriously inaccurate and injecting hundreds (if not thousands) of purely subjective data elements into the mix, is often defended as the only appropriate approach.
Conversely, the best approach--calculating the estimate at completion (EAC)--is commonly derided by so-called project managers, even though it's faster, easier and demonstrably more accurate than its re-baselining counterparts.
The most familiar EAC formula, the Budget at Completion (BAC) divided by the Cost Performance Index (CPI), can be algebraically reduced to dividing the cumulative actual costs by the project's percent complete. This formula works with durations as well: Divide the cumulative duration by the percent complete, and you have an accurate idea of how long a given task will take.
With such an easy, simple and powerful weapon in our arsenal, why aren't we using it more?
Posted
by
Michael Hatfield
on: March 18, 2009 03:02 PM |
Permalink
Comments (1)
Please login or join to subscribe to this item
RAJESH K L
Project Manager, PMP| Bharat Electronics, Bengaluru, India
Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Please Login/Register to leave a comment.
|
"All generalizations are dangerous, even this one."
- Alexandre Dumas
|
