Categories: , Business Analysis / Requirements, IT Strategy, Organisation Project Management, PMO, Strategy
When you think about your IT strategy, business strategy or if you think what could I propose for business, or maybe you are startup and you think what a new IT product would I create, you must know about modern trends and understand the world processes. That's why I'd like to propose for discuss my thoughts about the main trends in this year.
Our world is always in motion. There are many different trends which you are interested. I think we can find some groups of these trends.
The first group is about world economy processes and trends, which is very important for international business development.
There are five main types of the world economy processes, for my opinion. We can see the result of them as the same products and the same shops, the same companies in the different countries.
The globalization is one of the main economy process in the world. Globalization is about the way of thinking and practice that is seen cutting across cultures and civilizations. It has changed the world picture especially in the half of the last century. World economic systems development doesn’t compromise the ability of national economies to meet or satisfy their own requirements [2]. But today we more think about global economy, global market, global issues, and this affect entire population of the world rather than in specific country.
Another one world economy process is internationalization. The internationalization theory pays attention to the border of the firm [3,4]. And in nowadays “location factors include not only “places” (the location in the city or region) but also “space”…” [3]. Internalization is taking one country’s business across the world. Internalization is also about selling your product all over the world. Therefore, internalization retains one country's identity.
The third world economy process is transnationalization, which mean transnational corporation activities. In this process there are increases transfers of capital, labor and other resources.
The forth world economy process is regionalization, which mean dividing an area into smaller segments called regions. Of course, this process influences on the businesses, changing the conditions for functioning in the global political and economic system.
And the last world economy process is regional/international economic integration in the world economy. The most general term by this process is the “complex process of cooptation and diffusion of national economies of various counties, aiming to create a unified economic organism” [5]. It refers to the different regions and/or countries unions.
So, in all these processes we have such trends as a multi-culture aspects of social and economic development, peaceful co-operation, continuing opening of the societies and economies [1] on one side.
And from another side we can see following forecasts:
- The global recovery will continue:
- the most obvious risks to keep in eye on will be in Europe [6,8];
- the effect on US growth is estimated to be positive trough 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent trough this year [7,8];
- China and Japan will grow slow, and could return to growth trends in the past [8];
- The India grows gradually from 6.4% in 2017 to 8.3% in 2019 [8];
- Oxford Economic forecasts that global trade will grow by 4.8% in 2017, the fastest rate since 2011, and remain above 3.5% from 2018 trough 2020 [9];
- Equity markets should continue to enjoy the momentum of improving fundamentals for the next two years [9];
- Cheaper financing in major emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil [9];
- Gold could be as a strategic investment: it has been a source of return for investors portfolios; it's correlation to major asset classes has been low in both expansionary and recessionary periods; it is a mainstream asset that is liquid as other financial securities; it has historically improved portfolio risk-adjusted returns [10];
Criptocurrencies value will continues to grow and more people will invest, 2018 could be the year of regulation for blockchain and Criptocurrencies [11].
The second group is about technologies, which grow up so rapidly.
Some trends refer with blockchain and criptocurrency. So, Internet of things (IoT) may become Blockchain internet of things (BIoT), proposing new services and creating new businesses. Also financial technologies would become greener, and people will get the quantum computer, which will work at a billion times faster than today’s microprocessors [12].
Another one technological trend is about augmented reality (AR). AR goes mainstream. The one of the real promise from AR is to bring people information they need without having to ask for it.
Of course, this year is the year of bots, which will be able to provide timely information (for example, about medicine), to help with children, in financial investments and etc [12].
We will see continuing digital centralization, artificial intelligence (AI) permeation, date overload, including reduced privacy, and possible a new generation of internet [13].
Marketing will continue become increasingly personal, based on the people behavior, psychology, feelings, emotions.
Patent analysis can give full picture about technology trends.
The third group of trends is about people, how changes people’s mind and behavior in our world.
The first trend is about changing of people, and the focus is less about Millenials, and more about their cohorts in Generation Z [14]. But, for my opinion, we have also to keep in mind oldest people because they are active, have possibilities by health for work, and many of them want to work, and have a large useful experience and knowledges.
The second trend is about increasing role by social networks and p2p platforms.
Among the people, the interest to a cybersport is waiting to increase.
One of the trend concern to project managers. Project managers will become more product managers, they will be experts who take on a leadership role within the business, fostering a culture and collaboration and trust with stakeholders [14]. I think it also mean increase their leadership role in the project.
I was part of the situations when customer had taken approval for the contract only after his meeting with the project manager, because he had need not only the project leader, but the expert too.
In conclusion, I’d like to remind phrase from one of my favorite movies “The Devil wears Prada”: «Oh. I see. You think this has nothing to do with you…and you select, I don’t know, that lumpy blue sweater, for instance because you’re trying to tell the world you take yourself too seriously to care about what you put on, but what you don’t know is that sweater is not just blue. It’s not turquoise. It’s not lapis. It’s actually cerulean. And you’re also blithely unaware of the fact that in 2002, Oscar de la Renta did a collection of cerulean gowns and then it was Yves Saint Laurent who showed cerulean military jackets. Then cerulean quickly showed up in the collections of eight different designers. And then it filtered down through the department store, and then trickled on down into some tragic Casual Corner where you, no doubt, fished it out of some clearance bin. However, that blue represents millions of dollars and countless jobs. And it’s sort of comical how you think that you’ve made a choice, that exempts you from the fashion industry when, in fact, you’re wearing a sweater that was selected for you by the people in this room from a pile of “stuff”».
I think these words fully reflect the process how the trends born and they become part of our life even if we do not think about them.
I’d like to know your opinion about necessaries to know trends in the project/product development and successful requirements gathering. Which trends on your opinion we must know?
References:
- Grzegorz W. Kolodko Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future, http://bea-bd.org/site/images/pdf/paperk.pdf
- https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18568/1/MPRA_paper_18568.pdf
- Buckley P. Forty years of internationalization theory and the multinational enterprise / P. Buckley // Multinational Business Review. 2014. 22 (3), p. 227 – 245
- Buckley P. The internationalization theory of the multinational enterprise of the progress of a research agenda after 30 years / P. Buckley, M. Casson // Journal of International Business Studies. 2009. 40 (9), p. 1563 – 1580
- International integration and national development / Edited by A. Tatarkin. Yekaterinburg: Publishing house of Economics Insitute, 2009,
- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/what-to-expect-for-the-global-economy-in-2018
- https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2018/Update/January/0118.ashx
- http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/2018-global-economic-outlook-as-good-as-it-gets/report.pdf
- https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/gtf/global_transactions_forecast_2018.pdf
- Outlook 2018 | Global economic trends and their impact on gold by World Gold Council
- https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/914087/cryptocurrency-predictions-2018-bitcoin-news-blockchain-ethereum-ripple
- http://fortune.com/2017/12/26/4-technology-trends-2018/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaysondemers/2017/12/30/7-technology-trends-that-will-dominate-2018/#79b6ba3957d7
- https://www.changepoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018-PMO-Predictions.pdf
