The Planning Paradox
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Date
By Lynda Bourne
How much detail is too much? Traditional views tend to favour a management approach built on the assumption more detail is better, and to a point this is undoubtedly correct, insufficient detail in a plan of any type is a sure way to fail – ‘just-do-it’ at the overall project level does not help.
But looking at the ‘Coastline Paradox’ and using the length of a coastline as a synonym for the duration of a project suggests there is a point where too much detail is counterproductive.
The coastline paradox states that as you increase the detail by using smaller units of measure, the measured length of the coastline increases. If you use a small enough unit of measure, the length becomes infinite. For a more detailed explanation see: The Coastline Paradox Explained https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastline_paradox
So, what does this mean for project controls and project management? No one navigating a ship into a UK port would be happy using a map where the smallest measurement was 50 km, significantly more detail is needed, but they do not need absolutely everything about their intended destination. What’s needed is useful information at an appropriate level of detail, the same goes for you, when navigating your car in a strange city[1]:
Finessing project plans to present useful information at the right level of detail is not easy, decisions have to be made!
Take a typical risk register, if you tried listing every conceivable risk, the document would emulate the ‘coastline paradox’, and be of almost infinite length, which means the register is never finished and the project does not start. Conversely, miss one or two significant risks and the project team may have a very unpleasant experience, possibly causing the project to fail. Pragmatic guidelines about the risks to be considered are needed and these have to be tailored to the project. Similar guidelines are needed for the schedule, cost plan and all of the other sub-plans needed for a project.
How much detail do you feel is appropriate for your projects?
[1] Image source: Understanding Design, The challenge of informed consent. Dr. Lynda Bourne, 27th November 2014; maps of North Sydney
Posted
by
Lynda Bourne
on: September 06, 2021 01:04 AM |
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Comments (10)
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Luis Branco
CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª
Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Lynda
The theme that brought to our reflection and debate is very interesting.
Thanks for sharing and for your question.
The "coastline paradox" was new to me
I would say that in the short term the details are very important and in the medium and long term a more comprehensive view is enough
We are talking about adaptive approaches
Luis Branco
CEO| Business Insight, Consultores de Gestão, Ldª
Carcavelos, Lisboa, Portugal
Dear Lynda
On the other hand....
Estimating time and costs thus determined (based on the Coastline Paradox) may result in an increase in risks, not to mention the famous "overruns" in cost and time
Thanks for this reflection, it is a topic to think about.Thanks for sharing
Kwiyuh Michael Wepngong
Community Champion
Financial Management Specialist | US Peace Corps
Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon
Thank you, Lynda. Time and cost are very important to measure 'project overruns'. The details are significant to determine the success of the project.
Thanks for this information on "coastline paradox", never heard of that term before but it makes a lot of sense, thanks.
Sheila Davidson
Project Manager| Syracuse City School District
Syracuse, Ny, United States
Thank you, Lynda! This topic is exactly on my mind all the time, since my current focus is to establish a project management function at an organization for whom this is an entirely new idea. For people managing or supervising projects here, that sweet spot of enough information to be actionable and not leave out any important steps without so much information as to overwhelm is very important.
I have to keep asking myself with each new team, what is the zone of proximal development for each of these managers. What do they need to succeed at this project and what do they need to get better at managing for the next project?
I appreciate your posing the questions and helping me rethink my own strategies in this regard.
Lynda Bourne
Director, Professional Development| Mosaic Project Services Pty Ltd
South Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Thank you everyone for the comments.
There's no 'right answer' to the question Sheila but over many years I've found a focus on effective communication (elegant, focused and simple) gets information understood and used.
abiola busari
PM Specialist| Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG)
Port Harcourt, River State, Nigeria
Very awesome write-up, I have really experienced this in lots of crucial project meetings when SMEs are discussing technical issues, the more detail they go the more confused the laymen become. All I do is just to pick the main details as a layman.
This is an excellent post! I hadn't come across "Coastline paradox" before. I've been thinking how this paradox or the question at large applies to different industries. For example, in banking, precision is key. Particularly, when you're dealing with data from hundreds of markets. When I juxtapose the "Coastline paradox" on a brand new road-laying project, I'm having to re-think some fundamental questions now. Quite intriguing. Thanks Lynda!
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