Project Management

Statistical PERT™ (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet

By PMI South Florida Chapter

To be used in conjunction with the accompany article Introducing Statistical PERT. To use this template, enter a 3-point estimate for any bell-shaped uncertainty, then choose a subjective opinion about the most likely outcome. Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels, and choose any planning estimate you want. This version includes a special tab for release forecasting for agile teams.

Version 4.3 includes: 

  • New statistics to the Monte Carlo simulation worksheet
  • Burn-up chart now permits adding "Team Capacity" so the forecast lines adjust when a team has diminished capacity to work

Version 4 for 2020 includes these new features:

  • New Monte Carlo simulation worksheet simulates a single, random variable 10,000 times, then charts the results using a dynamic histogram
  • New agile burn-up chart visually forecasts three probabilistic agile delivery dates using historical data
  • Specify an explicit standard deviation for any uncertainty on any worksheet
  • New "Click for help" button gives you easy access to free email support
  • Enhanced spreadsheet formatting and other, minor improvements

The previous new version of the estimation template included these new/enhanced features:

  • New tri-colored combo chart to show the bell-curve
  • New row-level Sparklines to see implied uncertainty of every row
  • Enhanced agile forecasting tab, allowing side-by-side scenarios
  • New "Super Simple SPERT" tab for easy, first-time forecasting
  • A "Practice Forecasting" tab with estimation instructions
  • Minor tweaks and improvements elsewhere

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