Statistical PERT™ (SPERT™) Estimation Worksheet

Updated for 2023! To be used in conjunction with the accompanying article Introducing Statistical PERT. To use this template, enter a 3-point estimate for any bell-shaped uncertainty, then choose a subjective opinion about the most likely outcome. Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels, and choose any planning estimate you want. This version includes special tabs for release forecasting and process visualization for agile teams.

Version 5 includes:

• SPERT Normal Scheduler, which lets project managers create a probabilistic schedule by estimating their project's critical path at either the task or activity level
• SPERT Normal - CFD Charts, which creates a visual picture of an agile (or any other) team's workflow process using a dynamically-drawn, cumulative flow diagram (CFD). CFDs are popular among some agile teams who use a Kanban board and are interested in their flow.
• NEW for 2023: 2023 federal holidays and other time-off dates plus other minor tweaks

Version 4 included these new features:

• New Monte Carlo simulation worksheet simulates a single, random variable 10,000 times, then charts the results using a dynamic histogram
• New agile burn-up chart visually forecasts three probabilistic agile delivery dates using historical data
• Specify an explicit standard deviation for any uncertainty on any worksheet

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Evaluating Benefits: Getting Statistical (Part 2)

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Evaluating Benefits: Getting Statistical (Part 3)

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Getting Beta with Statistical PERT

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